惠誉：新冠肺炎疫情导致的中国车企供应链风险趋于缓解

原标题：惠誉：新冠肺炎疫情导致的中国车企供应链风险趋于缓解 来源：Reuters

科技（Delphi Technologies PLC, BB/评级观察正面状态）及博格华纳（BorgWarner, Inc.,BBB+/稳定）等全球汽车零部件配套供应商的中国工厂。领先的中国车企已通过暂时更换供应商及运输方式来应对供应链瓶颈。例如，中国第一汽车集团有限公司（中国一汽，A /稳定）在中国交通运输部的支持下于3月上旬安排专列将零部件从武汉运至吉林省省会长春。

未来几个月新冠肺炎疫情在全球持续蔓延恐将扰乱部分中国车企的供应链，但惠誉认为风险总体可控，原因是中国拥有完整的汽车供应链且汽车零部件进口比重较小。2018年中国汽车零部件进口金额为350亿美元，大约相当于国内汽车零部件产值的6%，且因贸易争端及不断扩大的本土生产于2019年降至310亿美元。中汽协3月上旬的调研报告显示，约20%-30%的国内车企预计其海外供应链将出现一定程度的中断。

变速箱及其零部件是中国进口值最高的汽车零部件品类，中国亦是此类产品的全球最大进口国。2019年中国逾70%的进口变速箱及其零部件来自德国和日本，而这两个国家合计占中国汽车零部件总体进口规模的50%以上。中国正在加大自动变速器技术的自主研发力度，同时外国变速箱供应商则致力于扩大在华产能。然而，部分全球性车企仍选择向海外供应商采购高端变速箱。因此，海外供应商生产的长期中断恐将使得这些车企的中国合资企业面临核心零部件供应短缺的问题。相比之下，中国自主汽车品牌对进口变速箱的依赖程度有限。

中国车企的整体产能利用率仍将受到2020年上半年需求低迷的制约。严格的检疫隔离措施已导致2020年2月中国乘用车零售销量同比下滑79%，而中国乘用车市场信息联席会（乘联会）估计2020年第一季度的降幅约为40%。但惠誉预计，受消费者私家车出行意愿上升及消费刺激政策的推动，2020年下半年汽车需求将大幅回升。中国中央政府已敦促地方政府采取措施鼓励汽车消费，而包括广东省的佛山和广州及湖南省的长沙和湘潭在内的多个城市都开始为购车者提供现金补贴。尽管如此，全球经济持续放缓将如何影响中国的消费者行为尚不明朗。

惠誉预计，由于销售额剧减，且资金周转周期因给予供应商和经销商的流动性支持而延长，2020年上半年中国车企将发生可观的现金流出。惠誉授予评级的中国汽车集团中，总部位于武汉的东风汽车集团股份有限公司（东风汽车集团，A/稳定）受湖北省封省的影响最大-该公司有多家工厂和供应商位于湖北省，且湖北省是其汽车销售的一个重要市场。但惠誉认为，鉴于东风汽车集团和中国一汽与政府的关系紧密且均保持净现金余额，这两家公司的评级维持空间充裕。与北京市政府关联的北京汽车集团有限公司（BBB+/稳定）和北京汽车股份有限公司（BBB+稳定）的发行人违约评级则不太可能受短期经营波动的影响。

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