2006年8月28日全球金融市场周报 新兴市场

　　Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

　　Most emerging stock markets enjoyed a strong rebound as investor risk appetite rose following a ceasefire in the Middle East and the emergence of further evidence suggesting that US interest rates may have peaked. In Latin America, the ongoing machinations surrounding last month's disputed presidential election result continued to dominate the news. A partial recount of the ballots confirmed Filipe Calderon (a conservative candidate deemed most likely to deliver economic reform) as the narrow victor, but left-wing opposition candidate, Manuel Lopez Obrador, said he would step up protests in demand of a full recount of all ballots. Nevertheless, the market remains buoyed by Calderon's victory and, with economic data showing that the Mexican economy had grown 4.7% in the second quarter on the back of surging exports and lower interest rates, the IPC ended the week 3.8% higher. In Brazil, the BOVESPA rose 4.6% as quarterly profit announcements continued to provide a boost. Profits at Banco do Brasil, Latin America's largest bank, rose 53% in the second quarter.

　　In emerging Europe, Hungary's BUX rose 2.0% despite a slowdown in second quarter economic growth as the government's austerity measures, designed to cut a burgeoning budget deficit that is threatening the country's entry into the eurozone, began to bite. The Czech PX 50 rose 1.7% as new attempts were made to form a government following the election stalemate reached 10 weeks ago. Turkey's ISE National 100 was flat over the week, but Russia's RTS was 3.7% lower as oil prices fell back. Despite last week's rally, we remain wary of emerging markets in the near term as investors absorb the full implications of tighter global monetary policy and ebbing liquidity. Emerging market equities also remain vulnerable to any further deterioration in investor risk appetite, while valuations are still not attractive.

　　中東地區停火，美國息口又進一步呈現見頂跡象，投資者冒險意欲回升，上週大部分新興股市都強力反彈。拉丁美洲方面，有關上月

墨西哥總統大選的爭議依然牽制大市去向。重新點算部分選票確定保守派卡德隆險勝，但左翼候選人奧有拉多爾卻表示會將抗爭升級，要求全面重新點票。雖然如此，卡德隆勝出仍為市場帶來刺激，而最新數據顯示墨西哥第二季經濟在出口激增和減息支持下增長4.7%，更推動上週當地股市高收3.8%。巴西股市升4.6%，季度業績繼續提供動力。拉丁美洲最大銀行Banco do Brasil第二季溢利增加53%。

　　新興歐洲方面，匈牙利政府採取緊縮措施削減日益膨脹的預算赤字，以免影響該國加入歐元區的機會。隨著措施影響開始浮現，第二季經濟增長放緩，但匈牙利股市依然上升2.0%。捷克股市升1.7%，十星期前的選舉僵局後，有關方面再設法組成新政府。另一方面，土耳其股市收市持平，俄羅斯股市則因油價回落而跌3.7%。上週大市雖見回升，但隨著投資者消化環球息口上升及游資抽緊的影響，短期內我們仍對新興市場採取審慎態度。投資者冒險意欲若進一步惡化，新興股市仍會受到牽連，而股值仍欠吸引。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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