2006年8月21日全球金融市场周报 欧洲

 

　　Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

　　Emerging stock markets were mostly lower last week as investor risk aversion rose in response to geopolitical worries and concerns over the US economic outlook. In Latin America, Mexico's IPC fell 0.4% as a Federal court rejected a request from opposition candidate, Manuel Lopez Obrador, for a full recount of last month's presidential election ballots. Although this moved Felipe Calderon, a conservative candidate committed to economic reform, closer to victory, fears remained that left wing protests may intensify and cause further disruption. Brazil's BOVEPSA fell 2.4%, with mixed corporate results adding to uncertainty among investors. Bradesco, Brazil's largest non-state bank, revealed a 13% rise in second quarter profits, but slower growth than previous quarters due to the impact of rising interest rates. Argentina's MERVAL, meanwhile, was 3.9% lower.

　　In Central Europe, Hungary's BUX fell 4.2% despite strong profits growth from Mol, the energy group, which announced a 19% increase in quarterly earnings due to higher crude oil prices. The Czech PX 50 was down 1.7% while the Polish WIG fell 2.9%. However, in emerging Europe, Russia's RTS rose 1.7% to its highest level since May on the back of record high oil prices. Figures also showed that Russia had received USD 26 billion in direct foreign investment in the first half of 2006, boosted by a commodities boom and surging oil and gas prices. Turkey's ISE National 100, meanwhile, rose 3.5%, as economic data showed a 11.4% rise in industrial production during June as a weaker lira sparked the strongest exports growth for 16 months. We expect volatility to remain high within the Emerging Markets universe as investors absorb the full implications of tighter global money and ebbing liquidity. The key swing factor for the asset class is the outlook for earnings - therefore we will be watching earnings news very closely.

　　上周新兴股市大部分低收，地缘政治忧虑和美国经济前景备受关注，令投资者避险心态加剧。拉丁美洲方面，

墨西哥股市跌0.4%，联邦法庭拒绝反对派候选人奥布拉多尔重新点算上月总统大选全部选票的要求。裁决虽令承诺推行经济改革的保守派候选人卡德隆与胜出距离拉近，但市场仍然忧虑左派抗争会加剧，为市场带来更严重干扰。巴西股市跌2.4%，公司业绩参差令投资者无所适从。巴西最大非国营银行Bradesco第二季溢利增加13%，但息口上升却导致增长较之前数季放缓。阿根廷股市则跌3.9%。

　　中欧方面，匈牙利

能源集团Mol的季度盈利因

原油价格上涨而增加19%，但股市仍跌4.2%。捷克股市跌1.7%。波兰股市则跌2.9%。欧洲新兴市场方面，俄罗斯股市受油价高企支持而上升1.7%。受商品热潮和石油与天然气价格飙升刺激，俄罗斯于今年上半年吸纳的外国直接投资多达260亿美元。与此同时，土耳其股市升3.5%，土耳其货币偏软刺激出口录得16个月以来最强劲增长，6月份工业生产增加11.4%。随着投资者消化环球息口上升及游资抽紧的影响，预料新兴市场仍会大幅波动。新兴市场的主要变量乃盈利前景方面，所以我们会密切留意业绩消息。

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