2006年8月28日全球金融市场周报 美国

　　United States 美国

　　Wall Street enjoyed a strong rally last week as easing inflation pressures and weaker economic data sparked hopes that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates further. The Dow Jones ended the week 2.6% higher, while NASDAQ's 5.2% increase was the technology-biased index's biggest weekly gain for four years. Early in the week a United Nations-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah to stop the fighting in Southern Lebanon provided a boost to confidence and helped send oil prices lower. Inflation data was a major boost to the market as both producer prices and consumer prices eased in July. The producer price index fell over the month compared to expectations for a sharp increase, while the core producer price index was also weaker than expected.

　　On the economic front, further evidence emerged of a slowdown in the housing market, while industrial output rose less than expected in July and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since last October. The weaker inflation and economic data both provided a fillip to stocks as they are seen as making it less likely that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates further from their current 5.25% level. On the market, the transport sector was buoyed by falling oil prices, while technology stocks rebounded from recent falls on the back of lower investor risk aversion. Earnings reports continued to surprise mainly on the upside, with Hewlett-Packard's better than expected results and USD 6 billion share buyback announcement among the pick of the week's corporate news. We believe that stronger than expected economic growth in the first half will continue to support corporate earnings growth through the remainder of the year. Therefore, once the Federal Reserve has indicated that the interest-rate cycle has definitely peaked, Wall Street is likely to see a further strong rally.

　　上周美股大幅上扬，通胀压力纾缓及经济数据转弱，令市场憧憬联储局不会进一步加息。道琼斯指数升2.6%，偏重科技股的纳斯达克指数则急升5.2%，创出四年来最大每周升幅。上周初以色列与真主党在联合国斡旋下停火，停止南黎巴嫩战事，刺激市场信心，并推低油价。

　　通胀数据更为大市注入强心针，7月份生产物价和消费物价均见回落。月内生产物价指数不升反跌，核心生产物价指数亦较预期疲弱。房屋市场亦进一步呈现放缓迹象。7月份工业产出升幅未及预期。麦歇根大学消费信心指数跌至10月以来新低。通胀和经济数据转弱，令联储局进一步加息需要下降，刺激股价上升。

　　市场方面，油价下跌刺激运输股，科技股亦因投资者避险心态减退而从近期跌势反弹。业绩不断带来惊喜，惠普(Hewlett-Packard)业绩超越预期，并宣布购回60亿美元股份，都是值得留意的公司消息。上半年经济增长较预期强劲，可继续为今年内的企业盈利增长提供支持。因此，一旦联储局表示利率周期确实见顶，美股应可进一步大幅上扬。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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