2006年8月28日全球金融市场周报 欧洲

　　Europe 欧洲

　　European stock markets were boosted by falling oil prices, stronger than expected domestic economic data and further positive corporate reports. Among the major markets, Germany's DAX was up 3.4%, the French CAC 40 rose 3.0%, the Swiss SPI put on 2.7% and the UK's FTSE 100 was 1.4% higher. A boost to confidence came from strong euro zone GDP data, which showed that the euro zone economy had grown 0.9% over the second quarter - the strongest growth for six years. France and Germany contributed to the strong growth, as the French economy grew at its fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2000 and the German economy expanded at its fastest pace for five years. Strong economic data did raise some concerns about further increases in interest rates, but a drop in eurozone inflation to 2.4% in July from 2.5% in June was deemed as making it less likely that the European Central Bank would need to raise rates again in the immediate term.

　　In the UK, too, a drop in retail sales in July and more dovish than expected minutes from the Bank of England's latest interest rate setting meeting helped ease worries about further rises in UK rates. On the markets, insurance stocks were boosted by broker upgrades and strong results across the sector, while positive analyst comments and a decrease in investor risk aversion sparked a strong rise in the European technology sector. Auto stocks rose on talk of a possible bid for Volvo, the Swedish car and truck maker, while merger speculation also continued to support the mining sector. The outlook for European equities remains good, thanks to attractive valuations and strong earnings growth, which is being boosted by corporate restructuring and better than expected economic growth.

　　油价下跌、国内经济数据较预期强劲，业绩持续利好，刺激欧洲股市上扬。主要市场当中，德国DAX指数升3.4%，法国CAC 40指数升3.0%，瑞士SPI指数升2.7%，英国富时100指数则升1.4%。

　　欧元区本地生产总值数据强劲刺激信心，数据显示欧元区第二季经济增长0.9%，是六年来最强劲的增长，法德两国居功至伟──法国经济录得五年半以来最急速的步伐，德国经济的增长则是五年来最快。强劲经济数据确实令市场关注息口进一步上升，但欧元区通胀率由6月份的2.5%降至2.4%，也令市场认为欧洲央行短期内加息需要下降。英国方面，7月份零售销售额下跌，英伦银行最新议息纪录较预期温和，都有助纾缓有关英国进一步加息的忧虑。

　　市场方面，保险股受经纪行调高评级及行内彪炳业绩刺激，分析员评论乐观及投资者避险心态下降亦触发欧洲科技股急涨。瑞典汽车及货车制造商富豪(Volvo)传出涉及收购的消息，汽车股上升，合并传闻不绝亦为矿务股提供支持。股值吸引，企业重组刺激盈利强劲增长，加上经济增长胜于预期，欧洲股市后市依然乐观。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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