2006年8月21日全球金融市场周报 美国

　　Europe 欧洲

　　European stock markets suffered modest falls against a backdrop of rising US economic uncertainty, continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the uncovering of a terrorist plot by the UK authorities. Among the major markets, the German DAX suffered a 1.7% decline, compared to a 1.2% slump for the UK's FTSE 100, a 1.1% drop for the French CAC 40, and a 0.4% fall for the Swiss SPI. Confidence was undermined by global factors, with domestic European earnings data and economic news remaining supportive. Corporate results, for example, continued to come in largely ahead of expectations. Among the companies reporting last week, Commerzbank, Hypo Real Estate and Adidas all reported strong second-quarter profits.

　　On the economic front, meanwhile, eurozone data continued to surprise on the upside, with German second-quarter GDP growth coming in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, while the French economy grew at a 4.0% annualised rate. Given this strong growth in two of Europe's largest economies, it is possible that the eurozone economy could grow by over 2.5% in real terms, above the consensus forecast of around 2.2%. Nevertheless, strong economic data led to further concerns over rising interest rates, with the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report suggesting further rate increases may still lie ahead. Telecom stocks were hit by a profit warning from Deutsche Telekom due to intense competition in the sector, while mining stocks were hit by industrial action at the world's largest copper mine in Chile. At the end of the week, news of a terrorist plot to explode bombs on flights between the UK and the US helped send airline and tourism-related stocks sharply lower. Despite this short term volatility, the outlook for European stocks remains very good, supported by attractive valuations and strong earnings growth, which has been boosted by corporate restructuring. Economic data continues to strengthen and has the potential to grow faster, helping to further boost corporate earnings in the second half of 2006 and into 2007.

　　美国经济前景日益不明朗，中东局势紧张，英国当局又揭发恐袭阴谋，欧洲股市在这环境下录得温和跌幅。主要市场当中，德国DAX指数跌1.7%，英国富时100指数跌1.2%，法国CAC 40指数跌1.1%，瑞士SPI指数则跌0.4%。

　　环球因素削弱投资信心，欧洲内部盈利数据和经济消息则依然利好。举例而言，企业业绩仍大致超越预期。上周公布业绩的公司中，Commerzbank、Hypo Real Estate和Adidas皆在第二季录得丰厚溢利。

　　经济方面，欧元区数据惊喜不绝，德国第二季本地生产总值增长年率达3.6%，法国增长达4.0%。以法、德两大经济体系的强劲增长衡量，欧元区实质经济增长有望超过2.5%，较一般预期的2.2%为高。虽然如此，强劲经济数据令市场更关注息口上升，英伦银行的季度通胀报告亦暗示未来仍会进一步加息。

　　德国电讯(Deutsche Telekom)基于行内竞争激烈而发表利润警告，拖累电讯股受挫。矿务股则因位于智利的全球最大铜矿发生工业行动而下跌。上周尾段，有消息指恐怖份子密谋在来往英美航机上引爆炸弹，拖累航空公司及旅游相关股急挫。短期走势虽然反复， 在股值吸引和企业重组刺激盈利增长的支持下，欧洲股市前景依然一片光明。经济数据一直向好，更有潜力加快，有助进一步刺激今年下半年及明年的企业盈利。