2006年8月21日全球金融市场周报(独家双语版)(2)

　　Japan 日本

　　Topix saw a 0.4% increase, largely dominated by futures-led buying and selling with the 200-day moving average providing a substantial level of resistance and subsequent range-bound trading. Fears over rising oil prices and slowing economic growth in the US (Japan's largest export market) were a constant hindrance for investors, but the market was boosted by some stronger domestic economic news as machinery orders growth for June came in much higher than expected. This is encouraging as machinery orders data provides a good indication of corporate investment spending. However, the preliminary 2Q GDP came in at 0.8% QoQ, undershooting market consensus of 2%. The main drags were net exports and government spending, which fell 0.3% and 17% QoQ respectively. On the other hand, domestic private final sales and capex in particular, remained solid; private consumption rose 1.9% QoQ, while business investment rose over 16.2%, accelerating from 13.9% in 1Q. Inventory reduction was a negative contributor, but cyclically this is a positive. If the influence of inventories was subtracted, the quarterly growth of private domestic demand over the last 12 months has been trending up from 0.6% QoQ to 0.9% QoQ. Meanwhile, the domestic demand deflator rose 0.1% YoY, the first YoY increase since 1998.

　　Merger activity also provided a boost in Japan as menswear retailer, Aoki Holdings, launched a hostile offer for its rival, Futata. This follows Oji Paper's recent hostile bid for Hokuetsu Paper Mills, marking a change in Japan's usual reliance on business consensus when it comes to corporate mergers. Over 90% of companies have reported their 1Q earnings, and the picture in Japan continues to look encouraging, with upward revisions at the net profit level outnumbering downward revisions by 2.5 to 1. It appears that risk appetite is gradually coming back to the market, given the sharp moves in some of the underperforming sectors YTD, such as shipping and rubber. Shipping was the best performing sector for 3 days, as the Baltic Dry index, showing freight rates for iron ore and other bulk cargo, rose to its highest level since May 2005. Domestic demand related sectors such as construction, real estate, retail and services were also firm, while despite the robust machinery order numbers, the machinery sector underperformed.

　　上周东京第一市场指数升0.4%，主要受期货相关交易支配，200天移 动平均线形成强大阻力，大市窄幅上落。有关油价上涨和美国(日本最大出口市场)经济增长放缓的忧虑，一直令投资者对股市望而却步，但内部经济消息向好却为市场带来刺激，6月份机器订单增长远较预期为高，令人鼓舞。

　　第二季本地生产总值初步增长仅为0.8%，远较市场预期的2%逊色。拖累增长的因素主要来自出口净额与政府开支，两者分别较上季下降0.3%和17%。另一方面，国内私人范畴销售及资本开支依然稳健；私人范畴消费较上季增加1.9%，企业投资增长亦由第一季的13.9%加快至16.2%。存货缩减亦对增长不利，但以周期衡量却属利好。若撇除存货影响，过去12个月私人范畴内需的季度增长一直走势向上，由较上季增加0.6%提升至0.9%。与此同时，内需平减指数按年上升0.1%，是1998年以来首次录得升幅。

　　合并活动亦刺激日股，男士服装零售商Aoki Holdings向对手Futata发动敌意收购。之前王子制纸(Oji Paper)亦向北越制纸(Hokuetsu Paper Mills)提出敌意收购，显示日本在企业合并方面倚靠企业共识的情况有所改变。

　　迄今90%的公司已公布第一季业绩，纯利上调与下调企业的比例是2.5比1。冒险意欲似乎正逐步回升，航运与橡胶等年初至今跑输大市的类别均见急升。航运股连续三天高踞表现榜首，波罗的海干散货指数显示铁矿及其它散货运费升上2005年5月以来最高位。建筑、地产、零售与服务业等内需相关股亦靠稳。尽管机器订单数据高企，机器股却表现欠佳。