2006年8月28日全球金融市场周报 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　Despite the O-bon summer holiday season, volumes traded in Japan were the most active in 8 weeks. The Nikkei broke through its 200 day Moving Average, and all indices posted positive WoW returns, with TOPIX rising 0.4% and TSE Mothers up 8%. In addition to small cap outperformance, lower oil prices and a resurgent US tech sector were also a notable feature of last week's markets. By sector, other financials, which is the worst performing sector YTD, led the gains by rising over 10%. Securities and rubber were also strong, supported by the strength in the market as well as declines in oil and natural rubber prices. The worst performing sectors were unsurprisingly commodity-related, such as mining and coal. Margin call pressure on individual investors seems to be easing steadily. According to Matsui Securities, the margin loss ratio of its customers fell to 9.4%, falling below 10% for the first time since 15 May. The loss ratio represents the latent losses from margin transactions, and it deteriorated to as much as -22.1% in early June. Short-term technical indicators appear slightly over-heated, but the resurgence in risk appetite particularly in the small-cap universe looks encouraging.

　　The METI's tertiary sector activity index for 2Q rose 2.6% QoQ, marking a sixth consecutive quarterly increase. Business services, which consists of professional services, research, rental and leasing, advertising, guard services, and staffing services, have been a constant contributor to this uptrend. Retail trade data has been somewhat disappointing so far this year, but momentum in consumption seems to have been well maintained in the service sector, and we expect this trend to continue given the steady recovery in the labour market. A two-week long takeover battle between two leading menswear retailers ended last Friday when the target, Futata Co. agreed to be acquired by its biggest shareholder Konaka Co. Futata will become a 100% subsidiary of Konaka via a stock-swap scheme. The stock-swap ratio of the deal would put Futata's total equity value at roughly JPY13.5bn, compared to the pre-biding market cap of JPY7.4bn.

　　尽管上周正值盂兰盆节假期，但日本却录得八个星期以来最活跃的交投。日经指数升破200天移 动平均线，与前周相比，所有指数都录得进账，东京第一市场指数升0.4%，TSE Mothers则升8%。除小型股表现出色外，油价下降和美国科技股回升都备受上周日本市场注目。按类别分析，年初以来表现最劣的其它金融股表现领先，上升逾一成。在市场走势坚挺和石油及天然橡胶价格下降支持下，证券行和橡胶股亦表现神勇。表现最劣的是矿务及煤炭等商品相关股。

　　散户孖展补仓压力逐渐减轻。有证券行指其客户孖展亏损比率降至9.4%，是5月15日以来首次低于10%。亏损比率指孖展交易的潜在亏损，6月初一度恶化至-22.1%。短期技术指标有轻微过热迹象，但冒险意欲回升(特别是小型股)却令人鼓舞。

　　经济产业省公布第二季的第三产业活动指数较上季升2.6%，连升六季。商业服务(包含专业服务、研究、租金和租赁、广告、保安服务和招聘服务)有助推动这项向上走势。今年以来的零售业数据略欠理想，但服务业消费动力似乎承接不俗，基于劳工市场稳步复苏，有关趋势可望持续。两大男士服装零售商之间长达两周的收购战终于在上周五完结，Futata同意接纳其最大股东Konaka收购，而Futata将会透过一项换股计划而成为Konaka的全资附属公司。按交易的换股比率计算，Futata的股权总值由收购前的市值74亿日圆增至135亿日圆。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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