2006年8月21日全球金融市场周报 日本

 

　　United States 美国

　　The US stock market weakened last week, despite the Fed leaving interest rates on hold after 17 consecutive rises. The Dow Jones fell 1.4%, while the NASDAQ was down 1.3%. The ambiguous wording of the Fed's statement following its decision to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25% - to the effect that rates would rise again if economic data demanded it - caused some disquiet, as many investors had been hoping for a more definite end to the rate tightening cycle. Second quarter corporate earnings continued to come in ahead of expectations, with AIG, Walt Disney and Cisco Systems among the high profile companies to surprise on the upside during the week. But investors were focused on interest rates and the rather uncertain outlook for US economic growth, particularly as the oil price surged to another record high following the shutdown of BP's Alaskan oil field following a leak. Fears of terrorism further undermined confidence later in the week after the uncovering of a plot in the UK to bring down transatlantic airliners.

　　In the short term, however, the major influence on US equities looks set to remain the outlook for interest rates, with a sustainable rally unlikely to take place as long as the market frets over whether US rates Inflation is rising at the moment, while growth is slowing, causing markets to be jittery. However, as Fed Chairman Bernanke has pointed out, slower economic growth is likely to impact on inflation (which is always a lagging indicator for capacity constraints). Our view is that a slowing housing market and rising unemployment indicate a benign outlook for interest rates, and that once the Fed does confirm that the tightening is over US large cap stocks may well rally. We currently prefer large caps over small caps, on grounds of valuation and their better ability to take advantage of a weak dollar.

　　联储局虽在17度加息后维持利率不变，上周美股却见偏软。道琼斯指数跌1.4%，纳斯达克指数则跌1.3%。联储局会后声明含糊其辞，表示倘若经济数据有需要仍会再度加息，令市场略感不安，因为不少投资者原本都憧憬声明能够肯定加息周期完结。

　　第二季公司业绩继续超越预期，美国国际集团(AIG)、

迪斯尼(Walt Disney)及思科系统(Cisco Systems)的业绩都令人喜出望外。不过，投资者的焦点却集中在息口问题和美国经济增长的不明朗前景，英国石油(BP)关闭阿拉斯加油田导致油价再创新高，更加深市场忧虑。英国揭发意图炸毁来往大西洋航机的阴谋后，恐袭阴影进一步削弱上周尾段信心。

　　短期内，息口去向仍是影响美股的主要因素，只要市场仍然牵挂美息是否已经见顶，升势都难望持久。通胀加剧而增长放缓，令市场惴惴不安。不过，联储局局长伯南克已指出，经济增长减慢应会令通胀受压。

　　我们认为，房屋市道放缓与失业率上升，都显示息口前景温和，一旦联储局确定加息周期完结，美国大型股可望大幅上扬。目前我们看好大型股多于小型股，理由是大型企业股值低廉，亦更有条件因美元偏软而得益。

 

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