新奥能源(02688.HK)：Maintain BUY，DCF-based TP at HK$88.0

机构：招商证券

评级：买入

目标价：88港元

■ Mgmt. is confident to achieve its 2018E gas sales vol. growth guidance amidst the economic slowdown environment 

■ Mgmt. estimates a core profit growth of 18% YoY in 2018E on the back of strong gas sales and cost saving from its LNG imports  

■ Maintain BUY and DCF-based TP at HK$88.0 

20-25% YoY gas sales vol. growth in 2018 is achievable  

In view of the slowing down economy, investors have concerns on the sustainability of strong gas demand from C/I customers. Mgmt. expresses that they haven’t seen the trend yet; the co’s gas sales vol. in Jul and Aug still recorded >20% YoY growth. Most of the co’s projects are located in Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-TianjinHebei areas, where have a better economic development and higher demand for coal-to-gas conversion due to the environmental requirement. The co. also has a diversified clientele; the gas sales vol. to a single industry accounts less than 7% of total gas sales vol. Together with the ramp up of its new clients, mgmt. expects the impact of economic  slowdown won’t be significant. The co. still maintains its full year gas sales volume growth guidance at 20-25% YoY in 2018. 

Expect a better margin in 2H  

PetroChina (857 HK, NR) announced to raise gas price by 20-40% for the contracted vol. for this winter season in early Aug 2018. Despite the cost hike, mgmt. expects its gas dollar margin can further improve from RMB0.62/cu m in 1H18 to RMB0.64/cu m in 2H18 thanks to 1) the earlier communication with its C/I customers with high portion of permission; and 2) the cost saving of RMB600-900/ton from importing 500k tons of longterm contracted LNG in 2H18. 

Fast expansion in integrated energy business  

In 1H18, ENN Energy signed 131 new projects with potential energy sales of 36bnkWh/year. Leveraging on its >90k C/I customers base, the company is looking to increase the contracted energy sales to 100bnkWh/year by the end of 2018. Assuming the ASP of RMB0.3/kWh, the integrated energy solution business will bring in RMB30bn revenue each year which is expected to happen by 2021. Mgmt. expects the gross margin of integrated energy solution business will also improve from 7.6% in 1H18 to >10% by 2020 once the business reaches scales.