金价登顶六年半高位 黄金或将取代美元霸权

来源：人民币交易与研究

近日，福斯财经网主持人Liz Claman与欧洲太平洋资本首席全球策略师彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）、美国全球投资公司首席执行官兼首席投资官Frank Holmes和Van Eck资深黄金分析师Imaru Cassanova在“The Claman Countdown”节目中讨论了近期黄金的走势，彼得更是在节目中指出，量化宽松和零利率政策是一个巨大的错误，最终唯一的赢家将会是那些购买黄金和白银的人。

金价已连续三天下跌，但正如福斯财经网主持人Liz Claman所说的那样：“那又如何?金价今年夏天已出现了突破。”

Gold has been on a three-day skid, but as Fox Business anchor Liz Claman put it, “So what? It’s been a breakout summer for bullion.”

过去三个月，金价上涨了约12%，最近几周触及了六年半以来的高点。

Over the last three months, gold is up about 12% and has hit six-and-a-half year highs in recent weeks.

Holmes在节目一开始就表示，对经济衰退的担忧正在推动央行放松货币政策，这对黄金有利。他说：“每个月，我们都看到越来越多的政府为你的钱提供负的实际回报率，这自然使黄金更具吸引力。而且我认为这还没有结束。”

Holmes started out the segment saying that recession fears are driving central bank easy monetary policy and that’s good for gold. He said, “Each month we’re seeing more and more governments offering you a negative real rate of return on your money and that automatically makes gold much more attractive. And I don’t think it’s ending yet.”

Cassanova说，黄金在6年的区间内波动后，现在又受到了青睐。她指出，它在6月爆发了……驱动因素是美联储。当他们从紧缩转向削减时，美联储发出了什么信号?美联储是在说其实他们也担心美国经济。投资者对此做出了回应：美国经济衰退的风险更高。

Cassanova said gold has come back in favor after being range-bound for nearly six years. She noted that it broke out in June... The driver there was the Fed. What is the Fed signaling when they are shifting, when they are going from tightening to cutting? They’re saying we too are worried about the US economy. And investors responded to that — to the higher risk of a recession in the US. 

Claman指出，中国在过去九个月增加了约100吨黄金储备。她问彼得，中国的黄金储备是否会起到作用。彼得说，他预计中国和其他央行将继续增加黄金储备，因为它们认识到了美元的疲软。

Claman noted China has added about 100 tons of gold to its reserves over the last nine months. She asked Peter if China’s stockpiling of gold plays into the picture. He said he expects China to keep adding gold, along with other central banks because they recognize the weakness of the US dollar.

彼得指出，实际上，美元非常疲软。人们一直在关注美元兑其他法定货币的走势。但如果你看一下美元与黄金比价下跌，你就会发现美元的疲软，而且我认为美元还会进一步走弱。我认为，外国央行正开始为美元失去储备货币地位做准备。美元将失去这种地位，是因为一种真正的货币——黄金。这就是中央银行购买黄金的原因。他们会继续购买，个人也应该购买。

Peter noted that the dollar is actually very weak. People have been looking at the dollar versus other fiat currencies. But if you look at the dollar’s decline against gold, that really tells you that we have a weak dollar, and I think it’s going to get a lot weaker. And I think foreign central banks are starting to position for the dollar losing its reserve currency status. And the reason that it’s going to lose that status is for a real money-gold. And that’s why central banks are buying. They’re going to keep buying, and individuals should be buying as well.”

Holmes指出，即使贸易战结束，美国经济仍然存在很多负面因素，需要一段时间才能扭转局面。与此同时，各国央行正在不断扩张的经济中采取降息。

Holmes pointed out that even if the trade war ends, there are still a lot of negatives in the economy and it will take a while for it to turn. Meanwhile, central banks are cutting rates in an expanding economy.

Cassanova说，她认为金融体系存在很多风险，应该会将金价推高至更高水平。我们说的是创造历史新高。

Cassanova said she sees a lot of risks in the financial system that should elevate gold to higher levels. We’re talking setting new all-time highs.

彼得认为，不管贸易谈判结果如何，我们都将陷入衰退。美联储正在下调利率至零，因此这就是将要发生的事情。

Peter said we’re going into recession regardless of what happens with the trade talks.The Fed is taking rates down to zero, so that’s what’s going to happen.

彼得指出，2001年金价还不到300美元。2011年，当人们对美联储正在犯下的货币错误感到担忧时，金价升至1900美元。

Peter pointed out that gold was under $300 in 2001. It moved up to $1,900 in 2011 when people were rightly concerned about the monetary mistakes that the Fed was making.

彼得说，当时人们相信美联储，一切都会好起来的，他们可以放松资产负债表，使利率正常化，黄金价格回落到1000多美元。现在已经从低点上涨了50%，因为人们刚刚开始意识到这些问题都没有得到解决。事实上，美联储把事情已经弄得越来越糟糕了，远超我在2011年的想象。他们对经济造成了巨大的损害，黄金价格也随之走高。量化宽松和零利率政策是一个巨大的错误，唯一的赢家将是那些购买黄金和白银的人。

Peter said: “Well, then people believed the Fed, that everything was going to work out, that they could unwind their balance sheet and normalize interest rates, and gold pulled back to just over $1,000. It’s now risen 50% off those lows because people are just starting to figure out that none of these problems were solved. In fact, the Fed has screwed up to a greater degree than even I could imagine in 2011. They’ve done a lot of damage to the economy and the gold price is headed a lot higher. The QE and zero percent interest rates were a big mistake and the only winner there is going to be the people who bought gold and silver.”（完）

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