周日欧洲视点：瑞信国际财富管理CIO来信|首席投资官_新浪财经

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　　瑞信国际财富管理（IWM）首席投资官Michael O'Sullivan在新浪财经开设了独家专栏《周日欧洲视点》(Sunday email from Europe），以下为他最新一期文章节选：

　　投资与机遇

　　常会有人误解CIO（首席投资官）这个头衔的含义。我时常会接到一些推销电话，对方误以为CIO中的“I”代表“信息Information”而非“投资Investment”，于是向我大力推销包含区块链解决方案的计算机系统。诚然，相比投资，我对信息技术（IT）系统的了解可能要少那么一点点，具体了解多少或许大家心里能猜个大概。然而，最近我在参加第九届瑞信另类投资论坛时，关于CIO中“I”的困惑却涌上心头。

瑞信国际财富管理部（IWM）首席投资官Michael O'Sullivan（来源：瑞信、《线索Clues》整理）

　　会上我参加了WorldQuant创始人Igor Tulchinsky的一场演讲，他谈到使用计算能力发现2,500万个阿尔法（超额收益）的来源，强调了市场与技术的交融程度。早先他曾开辟专栏讨论机器人在市场中发挥的作用及其如何造成市场的显著扭曲。去年12月或许便是一个例子，我直觉认为以算法为基础的严格风控（或许某些方面值得人类学习借鉴）和以定量为主导的交易是引发市场震荡的元凶。我一直期待能有决策机构对此类“无人驾驶”交易带来的扭曲效应展开质询。

　　更严肃地说，我们需要更全面地考察技术对金融的影响，这也是我在未来几周希望做的事情。周三我在伦敦勒顿豪集市（保险经纪人仍热衷于在酒吧借着午餐推销产品）和皇家交易所附近的小巷漫步时，意识到历史上金融交易的大部分要素都基于社交能力而非定量技能。而如今，近七成的交易皆由机器代劳。

　　更有趣的或许是技术如何在从财富管理至企业融资等各个领域改变关系型银行业务。从自我保护这一角度出发，在投顾领域，我可以想到至少在两个方面人类可在与机器人的较量中占得先机。首先是跨主题和跨专业能力，例如跨地域和跨行业板块交易协调。其次是利用数据和分析更好地了解企业面临的压力（从供应链改变需求到民族主义消费倾向带来的影响）。瑞信HOLT数据库就是一个很好的例子。

　　金融业面临的压力远不止技术颠覆。人口结构便是其一，但其含义或许与大家的理解有所出入。星期三晚上，在瑞信英国新视野会议（UK New Horizons Conference）上，我有幸与Juvenescence创始人Jim Mellon进行了一场深入的交流，他致力于延长人类寿命，特别是通过医学研究。长寿这一概念与我们的“银发经济超级趋势”显然有着不少共通之处。长寿对财务的影响体现在方方面面，例如随着人类寿命的延长，储蓄和养老金需求也会随之增加，因为这会影响老年人的消费方式和生活地点。

　　最后我想对美联储（Fed）作几点评述。美联储表现出的温和立场不免会让央行纯粹主义者失望。在他们看来，不管市场如何波动，美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）都应该坚定不移地推进美联储缩表。或许他们还会引用我上文提到的观点，认为应该以算法和机器人取代货币政策，按照规则严格执行。当然，这不仅会扼杀市场，也会令经济生活变得更加无趣。

　　让我们期待美好的一周！

以下为本文的英文原文：

Calls, Investments and Opportunities

Notes from the CIO IWM

An occupational hazard of having a job title with CIO (Chief Investment Officer) in it means that some people misinterpret its meaning. It is not uncommon that I get cold calls from people who think that the “I” in CIO stands for “Information” rather than “Investment,” and who want to sell me computer systems of blockchain solutions. I confess that I know slightly less about information technology (IT) systems than investment systems, though readers can gauge for themselves the exact stock of my knowledge here. Still, the confusion over the “I” in CIO came to mind last week while I was attending the 9th CS Alternative Investments Conference.

I was listening to a talk by Igor Tulchinsky, founder of WorldQuant, who spoke of using computing power to discover 25 million sources of alpha. It underlined the extent to which markets and technology are crossing each other. This column has previously commented on the role of robots in markets and the ways in which they can apparently distort the marketplace. Last December was potentially a case in point, where my intuition is that tight risk control by algorithms (which may have a thing or two to teach humans about risk management) and quant-led trading contributed to choppy markets. I am waiting for a policymaker to call for an inquiry into the distortionary effects of “driverless” trading.

On a somewhat more serious note, the impact of technology on finance more broadly needs to be considered, and I hope to do more of this in coming weeks. On Wednesday, I found myself in the City of London, and a stroll past Leadenhall Market (insurance brokers still continue business in the pubs over lunch) and in the side streets near the Royal Exchange underlined the fact that, historically, much of the transactional element of finance has been based on social rather than quant skills. Now, nearly 70% of trading is done by robots.

What is perhaps more interesting is the ways in which relationship banking will be changed by technology, in areas from wealth management to corporate finance. With self-preservation in mind, I can think of at least two areas where humans can steal a march on robots in the advisory world. The first is being able to span subject areas and areas of expertise such as coordinating deals across geographies and industry segments. The other is using data and analytics to better understand the pressures on companies (from the need to change supply chains to the effect of more nationalistic consumer tastes). The CS HOLT database is a good example here.

Finance faces other pressures beyond technological disruption. One is demographics, but perhaps not the type readers might have in mind. On Wednesday evening at the CS UK New Horizons Conference, I had the pleasure of sharing a platform with Jim Mellon, founder of Juvenescence, whose aim is to promote longevity, especially through medical research. There are clear parallels between the concept of longevity and our own Silver Economy Supertrend. One financial implication of longevity is the ways in which savings and pensions will have to be stretched as people live longer for instance, as this impacts the ways older people consume and where they live.

Let me finish this week’s note with some comments on the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The relatively dovish outcome of last Wednesday’s meeting will disappoint central banking purists, who will argue that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell should drive on with the unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet regardless of market volatility. The purists might even argue that, to draw upon my earlier point, algorithms and robots should take over monetary policy and run it on a strict by the rule basis. This, of course, would kill markets and make economic life far less interesting.

The dovish turn from the Fed, together with some good earnings and a sense that the USA and China may eventually be able to strike a trade agreement, has further driven the recovery in markets. In the short term, the rally, especially that in the USA, is beginning to look extended and we may soon see some consolidation.

Have a great week ahead,

Mike

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