专访华尔街“私募之王”苏世民：从40万到5710亿美元

　　国是访问 | 专访华尔街“私募之王”苏世民：从40万到5710亿

　　作者：夏宾

　　来源：国是直通车

　　他是全球私募巨头——黑石集团的联合创始人、董事长史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼（Steve Schwarzman），他还有一个中文名字，苏世民。

　　1985年，苏世民与当时雷曼兄弟的董事长彼得·彼得森（Peter G． Peterson）共同投资40万美元创建黑石集团，由此踏上了一条未知的创业道路。

　　面临过多次危机，但总能“危中寻机”。

　　截至2019年末，黑石管理规模达5710亿美元资产，业务涉及私募股权投资、房地产投资、对冲基金解决方案、信贷投资等。

　　从40万到5710亿美元，苏世民如何成为华尔街的“私募之王”？

　　近日，中新社国是直通车专访了苏世民。

　　国是直通车：回顾过去，哪次投资交易让您最骄傲、最满意？哪一次又让您最失望、最后悔？

　　苏世民：我对于黑石的很多交易项目都非常自豪，并对投资过程中展现出黑石模式的一致性引以为傲。

　　其中一个让我印象深刻的交易案例是黑石于2007年秋季以260亿美金收购希尔顿酒店。

　　希尔顿酒店是全球最知名的酒店品牌之一，收购希尔顿让我们获得了改善和拓展酒店业务的机会，为此我们很兴奋。

　　但是，在交易完成仅几个月后，全球金融危机就让世界陷入一片混乱，希尔顿的价值比初始投资时下降了70%。

　　但作为长期投资者，尽管受到媒体和其他人士的批评，我们仍在推进我们的转型计划：我们将酒店房间数量增加了一倍，实施各种节能计划，并努力改善公司文化。

　　2018年，在买入希尔顿11年后，黑石出售了希尔顿。很明显我们的策略获得了回报。这是有史以来最赚钱的私募股权交易，我们的投资者获益颇丰，同时希尔顿酒店经过我们的改造，也变得更好。

　　另一方面，在1980年代后期，黑石集团对一家名为埃德科姆（Edgcomb）的钢铁公司进行了一次非常糟糕的投资，使我们的投资者损失了巨额资金。

　　向我提出这个想法的人告诉我，这是一笔伟大的投资；但另一位同事警告说，该公司存在缺陷。

　　我选错了人。交易完成后不久公司就分崩离析。尽管当时对我而言这不啻一场巨灾，但它也迫使我彻底重塑黑石集团评估交易流程，这是我们在随后数十年中取得成功的关键。

　　国是直通车：在您的新书《苏世民：我的经验与教训》中提到，您曾经经历过7次大规模的市场下滑或衰退，那么您如何看待现在疫情对全球经济和金融市场造成的影响？

　　苏世民：在我的职业生涯中，我经历过许多不同的市场周期。毫无疑问，这次市场周期的影响极其深远。

　　我们从来没有自愿停止过如此规模的经济活动，这将带来广泛影响。但是，我相信世界将会度过这场危机，经济增长率也将大幅提高。

　　目前世界各国政府正在采取重要措施，以避免出现更严重的情况。

　　对于公司或投资者，我的建议是首先关注公司或所有被投企业中员工的健康和安全，与团队紧密合作巩固现有业务并帮助他们应对当前的危机。然后，从当前的市场混乱中寻找创新或投资的机会。

　　国是直通车：有人说您的新书价值15亿美元的，大家都希望从里面学到投资妙方，您有什么妙方跟大家分享吗？

　　苏世民：在我的职业生涯中，我学到了很多东西，尤其是在过去的35年里，我将黑石打造成了世界上最大的另类资产管理公司。

　　有一些教训是从我的成就中学到的，但更多的是从我一生中所犯下的各种错误中学到的。

　　书中关于甄别机会、风险管理、招贤纳士、建立企业内部文化和回馈他人等经验教训，可以帮助所有人在工作和生活中取得更大的成功，无论他们追寻的最终目标是什么。我也希望证明，挫折是职业生涯中一个自然的组成部分。接受失败并从中学习是你最值得做的事情之一。

　　国是直通车：这次疫情是否使黑石今年或未来一段时间投资策略发生改变？房地产是黑石的重头业务，您如何看待当下和未来全球各地的房地产投资趋势和机会？

　　苏世民：黑石目前的企业运营状况非常强劲，我们的企业结构能够适应当前的环境。

　　作为长期投资者，我们能够在困难时期支持我们投资的企业，也可以在当前市场混乱时期，寻找到新的高质量公司进行投资。

　　我们对这一策略的信心比以往任何时候都更加坚定。

　　在房地产领域，我们对那些顺应发展趋势的投资主题有很强的信心。

　　例如，我们注意到电子商务和仓储需求的不断增长为物流行业带来重要发展机会。由于旅游和商业经营受到疫情影响，个人和企业均面临财务压力，受此影响，房地产的某些特定领域面临显著挑战。随着全球各地逐渐恢复正常，整体的情况将有所改善。

　　国是直通车：有人说，疫情下中国成了避风港，而人民币资产成了避险资产，您认同这样的说法吗？黑石如何看中国的投资机遇？

　　苏世民：中国第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）大幅下降是在预料之中的，对中国来说也是史无前例的。但我相信，全球将一起克服这场危机，我们将看到经济增长率大幅提高。

　　中国具有天然优势，这将使它再次成为世界上增长最强劲的国家之一。

　　黑石集团自1992年就已经开始在中国从事商业活动，未来也将会在这里持续寻找有吸引力的长期投资机会。

　　国是直通车：最近来看，华尔街情绪好像稳定一些了，美股也不再一路下跌，您如何看待美股之前经历的暴跌？现在的美股可是说是摆脱泥潭了吗？

　　苏世民：美国及世界各国政府的快速应对有助于缓解疫情对经济的直接影响，这是值得赞扬的，但仍需继续努力，因为整体的复苏尚需时日。

　　当前市场的波动很大程度上是因为疫情形势仍充满不确定性，随着我们对病毒的进一步了解，这种不确定性将降低。我更关注的是经济的长期健康状况，而不是短期的股市动荡。

　　国是直通车：面对现在疫情在全球蔓延，怎么样才能解决问题？您对于各国政府有什么样的建议？

　　苏世民：目前世界各国正处于新冠肺炎疫情的不同阶段，并面临严峻考验。此次疫情为我们提供了一次独特的学习机会，我们可以就如何应对公共卫生威胁和经济挑战而借鉴彼此的最佳经验。

　　世界各国政府也似乎在短期内提供了强有力的支持和经济刺激措施。在目前的情况下，这些措施对于经济度过初期困难阶段并实现复苏至关重要。

　　国是直通车：疫情是否会改变中美间的关系？疫情过后，中美的贸易摩擦走势会怎么样？

　　苏世民：2020年1月的中美第一阶段协议是至关重要的第一步。随着中美两国各自忙于应对国内疫情带来的挑战，后续阶段的贸易谈判进展自然会受到影响。但是，解决所有贸易紧张局面符合两国长远的共同利益。

　　我始终坚信，两国之间深层次的理解对两国长期和平繁荣发展前景至关重要。

　　这也是我于2013年启动苏世民学者项目的初衷。该项目面向全球选拔最优秀、最具有智慧的本科毕业生，到清华大学苏世民书院进行为期一年的研究生学习，学业完成后将获得清华大学全球事务硕士学位。项目旨在培养具有全球视野的领导人才，促进中国与世界在不同专业领域的理解与交流。

　　国是直通车：您说过，信息是最重要的商业资产。现在中国提出“新基建”，包括5G、AI、物联网的基础建设，您怎么看？

　　苏世民：信息对于任何一家公司的决策都至关重要，尤其是投资机构。在黑石，我们很早就意识到这一点，并且一直以来特别注重在一些新领域的拓展，我们认为这些领域能够提升公司整体的智力资本，提升我们的投资能力。

　　受益于此，我们所投企业的范围之广、多元化程度之深，在行业内独树一帜。

　　过去，数据获取对于投资者而言是最大的挑战，但如今手指一敲，源源不断的信息随之而来、取之不尽，因此，现在这一挑战演变成为如何找到其他人没有的数据获取模式。

　　于是，投资者转向人工智能这类科技，作为应对这一挑战的潜在解决方案。我认为，我们将持续看到投资者们创造性地运用人工智能技术。

　　中国在这一领域是领先者，并且目前在人工智能和5G技术领域投入巨大，将带来长远的裨益。

　　人工智能是我个人很感兴趣的一个话题。这源于我与马云的一次对话，马云当时提到对于人工智能对人类社会的利弊分析，商界与学术界领袖存在广泛分歧。

　　这最终使我将人工智能作为我近期慈善项目的重要组成部分，包括创立麻省理工苏世民计算机学院，在牛津大学新成立的苏世民人文中心，都将继续探索这些相关话题。

　　附英文采访实录：

　　Q：As we all know， you have had a very successful career． Looking back， which investment or transaction are you most proud of and satisfied with？ Which ones disappointed you most？

　　A：I am proud of so many of our individual deals at Blackstone – and am also proud of the consistency we have shown across our investing businesses．

　　One highlight for me was Blackstone’s $26 billion acquisition of Hilton in the fall of 2007． Hilton was one of the world’s best-known brands and we were excited about the opportunities to improve and expand the business， including internationally． Just months after we closed the deal， however， the world was upended by the global financial crisis． In the midst of the crisis， we calculated that the value of Hilton was down 70% from our initial investment．

　　But we are long term investors – our model is uniquely suited to allow us to weather these types of market cycles． Despite some criticism from the press and others， we forged ahead with our plans to transform the company， doubling the number of rooms in the portfolio， implementing a variety of energy-efficiency initiatives， and making changes to improve the company culture．

　　In 2018， 11 years after our initial investment， we finally sold the business and it was clear that our strategy paid off． It was the most profitable private equity deal in history， greatly benefiting our investors， and we had transformed the company for the better．

　　I was immensely proud that Hilton was just named the #1 Best Place to Work in the United States by Fortune Magazine for the second consecutive year， as well as the Best Workplace for Women． Our investment in Hilton demonstrates the power of the Blackstone model， even in challenging circumstances．

　　On the other hand， in the late-1980s， Blackstone made a very poor investment in a company called Edgcomb Steel and lost significant money for our investors．

　　The person who pitched me the idea told me it was a great investment， but another colleague warned that the company was flawed． I picked the wrong person and soon after the company fell apart．

　　While this was devastating at the time it forced me to completely reshape Blackstone’s process for evaluating deals， which has been a key to our success in the decades that followed．

　　Q：You mention in your book that you have experienced seven market recessions． What is your opinion regarding COVID-19’s impact on the global economy and financial markets？

　　A：I have been through a lot of different market cycles in my career， and without a doubt this one is far reaching． Never before have we voluntarily suspended economic activity at this scale， and the impacts will be extensive．

　　But I’m confident that the world will get to the other side of this crisis and we will see economic growth rates improve materially． Governments around the world are taking important steps to avoid a more severe scenario．

　　My advice for companies or investors is to focus first on the health and safety of employees at your firm or across your portfolio． Work closely with your teams to shore up your existing businesses and help them manage through the current crises． Then， you may begin looking for opportunities to innovate or invest based on the current dislocation we are seeing．

　　Q：Some people say that your new book is worth $1.5 billion． Everyone wants to learn more about your investment strategies and approaches． What do you want readers to learn from your new book？

　　A：I’ve learned a tremendous amount over my career， particularly in the last 35 years building Blackstone into the largest alternative asset manager in the world． Some of these lessons were learned from my successes， but even more came from the various mistakes I made over my lifetime．

　　The lessons in the book about identifying opportunity， managing risk， attracting talent， building an internal culture and giving back to others can help anyone be more successful in work and life， regardless of their pursuits． I also hope to demonstrate that setbacks are a natural part of a career． Learning and adapting from failures is one of the most powerful things you can do．

　　Q：Has the pandemic changed Blackstone’s investment strategy this year or will it change in the near future？ As real estate is Blackstone’s business focus， how do you view current and future real estate investment trends and opportunities around the world？

　　A：Blackstone is in exceptionally strong shape and is structured to weather environments like this． We are long term investors， which means we can help support our current portfolio in times of crisis and also look for opportunities to invest in new， high-quality companies during the current market dislocation． Our confidence in this approach remains stronger than ever．

　　In real estate， we are high conviction investors behind themes that have strong tailwinds． For example， we continue to see compelling opportunities in logistics from the growth in e-commerce and demand for warehouses．

　　Certain areas of real estate face obvious challenges as travel and commerce is limited by the virus and individuals and companies are under financial stress． This will improve as the world returns to normal．

　　Q：Some people say that China has become a safe haven and that the Renminbi is a safe haven asset in the midst of the pandemic． Do you agree with this？ What is Blackstone’s opinion on investment opportunities in China？

　　A：China experienced a sharp drop in the country’s first quarter GDP， which was expected but unprecedented for the country．

　　But I’m confident that the world will get to the other side of this crisis and we will see economic growth rates improve materially．

　　China has natural advantages that will make it emerge again as one of the strongest growing countries in the world． Blackstone has been active in China since 1992 and will continue to look for compelling， long term investment opportunities．

　　Q：Recent chaos on Wall Street has somewhat subsided and US equities are no longer falling． Has the US equity market seen the back of this downturn？

　　A：Rapid efforts by the US government and others around the world deserve credit for helping to mitigate some of the immediate economic impacts， but the efforts will need to continue， and the recovery will take time．

　　Much of the volatility in the markets was driven by the uncertainty of the situation， which will calm as we learn more about the virus． I am more focused on the long-term economic health rather than shorter term public market volatility．

　　Q：In terms of mutually beneficial cooperation， you have mentioned in your book that “most people in trouble only focus on their own affairs， and the way to get out of the trouble usually lies in solving others’ problems．” How should we deal with the problems of a global pandemic？ What are your suggestions for governments all over the world？

　　A：Countries around the world are facing the challenges of the virus on different timelines． This presents the unique opportunity for us to learn from one another on how best to respond to both the health threats and economic challenges．

　　Governments around the world appear to be providing strong support and economic stimulus in the near term． These actions are critical in a situation like this to allow the economy to make it through the initial period and to recovery．

　　Q：Last year， Sino-US trade friction was a big concern． Now， however， COVID-19 has become a bigger issue． Do you think that the pandemic will change the relationship between China and the US？

　　A：The initial trade agreement in January 2020 was a significant first step for the US-China relationship． Progress towards additional phases will naturally be impacted as the US and China each manage the domestic challenges of coronavirus， but it remains in the long-term mutual interest of both countries to resolve all trade tensions．

　　I’ve been a firm believer that nurturing a deeper level of understanding between the two countries is key to long-term prospects of peace and prosperity． This is what inspired me to establish Schwarzman Scholars in 2013， a highly selective global fellowship program that sponsors the best and brightest from around the world to spend a year at Schwarzman College in Beijing earning a one-year master’s degree in global affairs from the world-renown Tsinghua University．

　　The program’s mission is to build a global network of dynamic leaders who throughout their careers can deepen understanding and foster communication between China and the rest of the world， across many different professional fields．

　　Q：You mentioned in your book that information is the most important business asset and that digital technology is the foundation of information． What stage of development is the global digital technology in now？ People think that China’s mobile internet and digital technologies are developing very well． What do you think？ Currently， China is proposing the construction of new infrastructure， including 5G， AI and the Internet of Things． What does this mean for information as a business asset？

　　A：Information is critical to decision making at any company – particularly investment firms． We recognized this early at Blackstone and have been deliberate about expanding into new areas that we thought would add to the overall intellectual capital of the firm and strengthen everything we did on behalf of our clients． The scale and diversity of our investing businesses today is a unique benefit．

　　Access to data used to be the biggest challenge for investors， but today， with a seemingly endless amount of information at everyone’s fingertips， the challenge is more about spotting patterns that others have not．

　　Investors are turning to technologies like artificial intelligence as a possible solution to this challenge， and I think you will continue to see investors use AI in creative ways．

　　China is a leader in this area and is investing heavily in AI and 5G technologies， much to its long-term benefit．

　　AI is a topic in which I have personally been interested． This was sparked by a conversation with Jack Ma， who described how business and academic leaders widely disagreed on whether AI was a benefit or threat to society． This eventually led me to make AI a key part of my recent philanthropic efforts， and I have helped create the new Schwarzman College of Computing at MIT and the new Schwarzman Center for the Humanities at Oxford University which will explore these topics．

责任编辑：刘万里 SF014