招商证券(香港)：Weaker gas sales vol. growth in 4M19

　　招商证券（香港）6月5日发布对华润燃气的研报，摘要如下：

　　4M19 gas sales vol. growth fell behind guidance In 4M19， CR Gas recorded a gas sales vol. growth of ~15% YoY， falling behind mgmt.’s full year guidance of>20% YoY mainly due to weak gas sales to C&I customers （~20% YoY vs>20-30% YoY in 4M18） on high base and seasonal effects. Mgmt. may revisit its full year gas sales vol. guidance after reviewing sales figures in May and Jun 19. Going forward， the co. intends to focus on projects in its existing footprints， mainly coastal areas， Eastern China and Central China instead of Northern China given the fact that the economic growth in those three areas will drive their gas demand higher than that in Northern China， according to mgmt. In our view， there is a high chance the co. may revise its full year gas sales vol. growth target since it has less exposure in Northern China where there is a higher coal-to-gas conversion demand. More residential households will be connected in 2H than in 1H Mgmt. addressed that the new connection rollout in 4M19 was on track with its full year target of 3mn households. Mgmt. expects more households to be connected in 2H than in 1H. Among the new connection rollouts， 75%， 15% and 10% will come from new buildings， old buildings and rural households， respectively. Regarding the potential connection fee reform， the co. sees the cost-plus model will be likely adopted to regulate the business. Mgmt. estimates an operating margin of 15-25% once all relevant market-priced costs （e.g. marketing expenses， regular and safety checking expenses and maintenance fee） are included.