文/新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)机构专栏 查塔姆智库 作者 理查德-康纳利(Richard Connolly，英国皇家国际事务研究所俄罗斯与欧亚项目副研究员)
不少人认为，庞大的外债与不断萎缩的国际储备预示着俄罗斯必将发生一场金融危机。但深入分析之后发现，俄罗斯的外债问题被严重夸大，出现类似1998年金融危机的可能性几乎不存在。相比之下，俄罗斯外国直接投资的不断下滑更为令人担忧。
俄罗斯为何不会发生金融危机？尽管俄罗斯经济形势依然很严峻，但关于俄罗斯外债的问题一直被夸大。
Though the country still faces difficult economicconditions, the problem of external debt has been exaggerated。
由于大量外债面临到期偿还，人们猜测俄罗斯可能会在不远的将来经历一场金融危机。然而对于俄罗斯的政策制定者而言，这些金融问题并没有表面上看起来那么令人担忧。俄罗斯的外债很大一部分并非由西方银行持有，而是注册在国外的其他俄罗斯母公司或控股公司。这种“集团内部”债务很容易重新协定，意味着俄罗斯不可能发生货币危机。相反，其他一些指标，比如外国直接投资(FDI)，对经济健康度所发出的信号反而更应注意。
A large volume of scheduled external debt repaymentshas led to speculation that Russia could experience a financial crisis in thenear future. However, these financial vulnerabilities are not as worrying toRussian policy-makers as they might appear. A significant share of Russia’sexternal debt is owed not to Western banks, but instead to other Russian parentor holding companies registered abroad. This ‘intra-group’ debt is easilyrescheduled, which means that Russia is unlikely to suffer a currency crisis –though other indicators, such as foreign direct investment, are more worryingfor the health of the economy。
外储下降的背后
The dynamics behind falling reserves
去年冬季卢布疯狂贬值，伴随俄罗斯外储下降，生动地展现了俄罗斯经济的疲软以及油价下跌对其冲击之大。
The dramatic depreciation of the roubleover the winter, along with a decline in Russia’s international reserves,vividly illustrated Russia’s economic weaknesses and vulnerability to decliningoil prices。
然而，去年四季度卢布崩溃有一个主要原因与油价下跌并无直接关联。那就是外债偿还额的激增给卢布带来下行压力。由于西方国家对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，大量俄罗斯企业进入西方资本市场的通道基本被堵死，而不仅仅是制裁名单上的那些企业。
However, one of the principal causes of therouble’s poor performance in the final quarter of 2014 was not directly relatedto the falling price of oil. Instead, a spike in external debt repayments alsocreated downward pressure on the rouble. Because of financial sanctions imposedby Western states, access to Western capital markets was effectively closed toa large number of Russian corporations, and not just those directly targeted bysanctions。
由于无法为现有债务获得再融资，俄罗斯企业被迫按期偿还债务。其结果是，俄罗斯的总外债从2014年1月份大约7280亿美元降至2014年底的5970亿美元。外债存量锐减超过1300亿美元，包括偿债(主要是向西方银行)以及以卢布计价债务的美元价值的缩减。
Unable to refinance existing debt, Russianfirms were forced to repay their debts on schedule. As a result, Russia’s totalexternal debt fell from around $728 billion in January 2014 to $597 billion atthe end of 2014. This sharp reduction of over $130 billion in the stock ofexternal debt was due to a combination of repayments (primarily to Westernbanks) and a reduction in the dollar value of rouble-denominated debt。
2014年底私人资本加速流出曾引起一阵轰动，据估算2014年总流出达到1540亿美元，上述被迫偿还外债至少是推动因素之一。这反过来导致俄罗斯外汇储备下降，因为企业需要将卢布兑换成外汇来偿还外债。2014年，俄罗斯国际储备从年初的5100亿美元降至年末的3880亿美元。目前俄罗斯外储为3560亿美元。
Thesurge in net private capital outflows that attracted much excitement at the endof 2014 – estimated to have reached $154 billion in 2014 -- was at leastpartially driven by these forced external debt repayments. This in turncontributed to the reduction in Russia’s foreign exchange reserves as roubleswere exchanged for foreign currency to service external debt obligations. Overthe course of 2014, Russia’s international reserves dwindled from $510 billionat the beginning of the year to $388 billion at the end of the year. Today,they stand at $356 billion。
金融弹性
Financial flexibility
部分学者，比如大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)的安德斯-艾斯仑德(Anders Aslund)，认为外储下降与高额外债结合起来将威胁俄罗斯的金融稳定。他认为这里有两大原因，一是俄罗斯的国际储备流动性不足，难以用来偿还外债，二是俄罗斯近期需偿还的外债规模超过了立即可用的储备水平。其实这两点都有些夸大其词。
Some, such as the Atlantic Council’s AndersAslund, have suggested that this cocktail of declining reserves and high externaldebt threatens the financial stability of Russia. This is, he suggests, because(a) Russia’s international reserves might not be liquid enough to be used tomeet external financial obligations; and (b) Russia’s foreign debt obligationsin the near future exceed the readily available stock of reserves. However,both claims are exaggerated。
首先，俄罗斯的国际储备是具有流动性的。这一点本-阿里斯(Ben Aris)最近在《BNE》发表的文章讲得很清楚。
First, Russia’s international reserves areliquid, as clearly documented by Ben Aris in a recent BNE article。
第二点大家讲的比较少，那就是俄罗斯未来两年到期的外债并不像看上去那么规模庞大。根据俄罗斯央行[微博]网站公布的数据，2015年计划偿还的外债规模为略低于750亿美元(其中2015年1-5月为450亿美元)、2016年680亿美元。这意味着在2016年底之前，计划偿还的外债规模为略高于1400亿美元。将其与大约3500亿美元的国际储备相对照，自然看起来规模过大和令人担忧了。
Second, and less widely documented, is thefact that Russia’s foreign debt obligations over the next two years are not asimposing as might first appear. According to data publically available on theBank of Russia website, a little under $75 billion of external debt repaymentsare scheduled to be repaid over 2015 (a further $45 billion was scheduled forrepayment between January and May 2015)， and $68 billion over 2016. That meansthat between now and the end of 2016, over $140 billion is currently scheduledto be repaid. Set against around $350 billion in international reserves, thislooks like a substantial and worrying amount。
然而事实上，俄罗斯计划偿还的外债中很大一部分是对俄罗斯债务人所控股或关联的银行或其他企业实体的义务。换句话说，其中有很大一部分是集团内部债务，即俄罗斯企业从与其密切关联的在境外注册的实体实施的借款，可能出于“税收效率”等目的。此类债务很容易展期，因此并不构成“硬性”偿债义务。
However, much of Russia’s scheduledexternal debt repayments consist of obligations to banks or other corporateentities that either own or are linked with the Russian debtors. In otherwords, there is significant ‘intra-group’ debt, where Russian firms borrow fromclosely-linked entities registered offshore for the purpose of ‘taxefficiency’, for example. Such debt can be easily rescheduled and does notconstitute a ‘hard’ debt obligation。
那么集团内部债务到底占俄罗斯外债比重的多少呢？总体而言大约占总外债的四分之一。但更重要的是，它占2015年和2016年计划偿还债务额的一半左右。这意味着未来18个月俄罗斯企业“硬性的”外债偿付额更接近700亿美元而非1400亿美元。考虑到俄罗斯依然较高的国际储备，以及许多企业依然持续产生大量外汇收入，这一数额并不能让俄罗斯政策制定者担忧。
Just how much of Russia’s external debtdoes intra-group debt account for? Overall, it accounts for around a quarter oftotal external debt. But even more importantly, it accounts for around half ofthe repayments that are scheduled for 2015 and 2016. This means that the total‘hard’ external debt repayments over the next 18 months amounts to a figurenearer $70 billion than $140 billion. Given Russia’s still substantialinternational reserves, and the fact that many firms continue to generate largevolumes of foreign currency revenues, this amount will not worry policy-makersin Russia。
展望未来，由于俄罗斯大量外债可能被展期，我们预计总外债存量下降速度应该非常缓慢，而集团内部债务的比重上升。这应该意味着总的短期债务数据将会上升，可能看起来比较吓人，但正如本文所指出的，对数据深入分析之后发现实际结果并没有那么可怕。
Looking to the future, because much ofRussia’s external debt will likely be rescheduled, we should expect to see thetotal stock of external debt decline quite slowly, and the share of intra-groupdebt to rise. This should mean that the headline short-term debt figure willgrow and perhaps appear disconcertingly high. But, as this note shows, acareful reading of the data should lead to a less alarming conclusion。
投资下降的威胁
Threat of declining investment
这是否意味着俄罗斯经济非常健全呢？那倒不见得，但我们可以说俄罗斯发生金融危机的可能性很低。当然，如果再次出现油价突然和持续下跌，依然会造成很多问题。但是在油价相对稳定的假设情境下，庞大的外债负担导致俄罗斯发生类似1998年8月金融危机的可能性几乎没有。
Does this mean that the Russian economy issafe? Well, it does mean that the likelihood of a financial crisis is quitelow. Of course, another sudden and sustained decline in the price of oil wouldcause problems. But in a relatively benign baseline scenario of stable oilprices, it is unlikely that onerous external debt repayments will cause adramatic financial crisis like the one Russia suffered in August 1998.
不幸的是，俄罗斯其他经济指标看起来更为令人担忧。比如说，外国直接投资流入已经降至极端低位。2014年下半年，俄罗斯外国直接投资流入为负值。尽管这并非没有先例，这一事实与投资加速萎缩放在一起去看，说明俄罗斯的投资前景非常黯淡。
Unfortunately for Russia, other economicindicators look more worrying. For example, inflows of foreign directinvestment (IFDI) in Russia have fallen to worrying levels. In the second halfof 2014, IFDI was negative. While this is not unprecedented, the fact that itaccompanied a wider contraction in investment indicates that the prospects forinvestment in Russia appear bleak。
这一点极其重要，因为外国直接投资流入是科技和技能的关键来源。如果这一趋势持续下去，俄罗斯总投资的效率将会下降，劳动生产率增长将会放慢，俄罗斯的国际竞争力将会进一步下降，从而最终造成人们生活水平下降。
This is of tremendous importance becauseIFDI is a crucial source of technology and knowhow. If this trend persists, theeffectiveness of Russia’s aggregate investment will decline, productivitygrowth will slow, Russia’s international competitiveness will slump further,and ultimately living standards will fall。
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(本文作者介绍：查塔姆智库，是一家独立的政策研究所，总部位于伦敦。其任务是帮助建立一个可持续的安全、繁荣和公正的世界。)
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文章关键词： 俄罗斯经济危机外汇储备国际储备外债外国直接投资FDI
