如何在结构性行情中开展投资布局?新浪财经《基金直播间》,邀请基金经理在线路演解读市场。
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会!
来源:中金研究
1、宏观:二季度大部分时间,海外需求处于暂时“冻结”状态。基准情形下,如果全球疫情在二季度得到较有效控制,全球经济或经历2-3个季度较为严重的衰退,但在四季度开始企稳回升。我们预计财政与货币政策有望进一步加大纾困及稳需求力度。
2、策略:疫情顶,市场底。疫情冲击业绩,A股及海外中资股业绩预期仍在下调。市场估值处于历史区间低位,流动性偏宽松可能支持估值修复。
3、固收:海外货币政策大幅放松下,全球主要国家收益率普遍下降至0以下,中外利差明显扩大;当前中美利差创历史新高,后续可能会续创新高。
4、大宗:原油:国内原油进口保持高位,但下游炼厂加工及成品油需求受疫情抑制。动力煤:供应受疫情干扰,下游需求同样疲弱。
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文章来源
本报告摘自:2020年4月20日已经发布的《图说中国:2020年二季度》
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