市场预测 今年石油市场或会出现缺口

原标题：市场预测 今年石油市场或会出现缺口

中国石化新闻网讯 据能源新闻1月14日消息称，2020年伊始，股市再次创下历史新高。人们刚刚结束了油价上涨超过30%的一年。不过，天然气价格今年收盘时下跌了近40%，凸显出这两种大宗商品之间的脱节程度。

石油仍然是世界上最重要的商品，所以人们总是试图预测油价的走向。人们通常通过观察供求趋势和库存水平来做出这个预测。人们通常也会通过查看其他分析师的预测来检查预测是否正确。

在过去的几年里，市场以太低的油价开始了新的一年。因此，市场最近几年的预测是价格会上涨。今年，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)开盘价为每桶61.17美元，全年均价为每桶56.98美元。自2014-2015年油价下滑以来，油价只有一次突破了60美元/桶。2018年年初油价为60.37美元/桶，在结束时跌至每桶50美元以下，最高涨至75美元/桶以上。

美国能源情报署(EIA)预计，由于预计全球石油库存将在2020年上半年上升，今年原油价格将平均下跌。

相比之下，摩根大通预计，由于欧佩克减产和新兴市场需求增长，今年石油市场将出现每日20万桶的缺口。他们预计全球石油需求将以每日100万桶的速度增长，这与大多数其他预测一致。

美国目前的原油库存约为每年这个时候的平均水平。全球库存略低于5年平均水平。

市场相信，石油市场的预期与现实之间存在脱节。许多人预计，全球正处于石油需求的顶峰，但实际上市场认为距此还有数年之遥。然而，这些预期给油价带来了阻力。但市场修正这些预期的唯一途径是降低原油库存。鉴于近年来美国页岩油的强劲增长，这种情况还没有发生。

最终，市场相信欧佩克将继续减产以支撑油价，并认为美国页岩油产量增长将继续放缓(下一个预测)，全球石油需求将再次增长至新的历史高点。

但平均来看，今年石油市场似乎相当平衡。这为油价平稳走势提供了理由。无论如何，原油库存并不高，市场认为欧佩克将继续减产以支撑油价。

一些观察者呼吁，面对石油需求的峰值，石油价格将很快崩溃。人们不相信2020年的价格会比现在低很多。

曹海斌 摘译自 能源新闻

原文如下：

Energy Sector Predictions For 2020

We begin 2020 with the stock market again testing record highs. We just finished a year in which oil prices rose by more than 30%. However, natural gas prices closed the year nearly 40% lower, emphasizing the extent to which these two commodities have become unlinked.

Oil is still the world’s most important commodity, so I always try to lead off with a prediction on the direction of oil prices. I generally make this prediction by looking at supply and demand trends, as well as inventory levels. I also usually do a sanity check of my prediction by reviewing predictions from other analysts.

Over the past few years, we started the year with an oil price that I felt was too low. So my prediction in recent years was for higher prices. This year, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opened at $61.17 per barrel (bbl), and averaged $56.98/bbl for the year. The year has only started above $60/bbl one other time since the downturn of 2014-2015. In 2018 the year opened at $60.37/bbl, and it ran up to just over $75/bbl before ending the year below $50/bbl.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects crude oil prices to be lower on average this year, because of forecast rising global oil inventories in the first half of 2020.

In contrast, JP Morgan is projecting an oil market deficit this year of 200,000 BPD, because of OPEC production cuts and demand growth in emerging markets. They expect oil demand to grow by 1 million BPD globally, which is consistent with most other forecasts.

U.S. crude oil inventories are about average for this time of year. Global inventories are slightly below the five-year average.

I believe there is a disconnect in the oil market between expectations and reality. There are lots of expectations that we are on the cusp of peak oil demand, but in reality I think we are still several years from that. Nevertheless, those expectations are creating headwinds for oil prices. But the only way the market corrects those expectations is for crude inventories to decline. Given the strong growth in U.S. shale oil in recent years, that just hasn’t happened.

Ultimately, I believe OPEC will continue to cut production in order to prop up oil prices. I think U.S. shale production growth is going to continue to slow (next prediction), and that global oil demand will once again growth to a new record high.

But the oil markets looks to be pretty balanced this year on average. That argues for modest oil price movements. In any case, crude inventories aren’t high, and I believe OPEC will continue to cut production in order to prop up oil prices.

Some have called for oil prices to imminently collapse in the face of peak oil demand. I don’t believe prices will go much lower than they are presently in 2020.