全球油气市场前景堪忧

原标题：全球油气市场前景堪忧

中国石化新闻网讯 据4月22日Rigzone报道，安永全球油气税主管德里克莱思（Derek Leith）指出，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格下跌是由美国境内的生产和需求不平衡造成的，并不能反映全球石油和天然气行业的状况。

莱思表示，美国大部分石油都在内陆生产，随着储存设施接近最大产能，美国WTI基准原油价格进一步下跌在所难免。油价之所以出现每桶负40美元这一“引人注目”的水平，是因为金融交易员持有的5月份合约数量“相对较少”，必须在到期前出售，但却发现“根本没有买家”。欧佩克+削减石油供应将“把事情转向正确的方向”，但他强调，这些要到5月1日大规模减产开始之际才能显现。

他补充道，从中期来看，减产行动应该可以重新平衡供求关系，因为随着人们的生产生活渐渐步入正轨，全球需求将会增加。不过，由于市场1500万桶/天的石油供应过剩，且油价一直停留在较低水平，也不能确定市场是否会在未来几个月内出现震荡，而西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的大幅下跌，也在给予人们警示。

虽然周一西德克萨斯中质油价格的暴跌不会直接影响到英国大陆架(UKCS)，但这是对油价波动的一个“高调提醒”，英国的小型石油生产商会发现，以“现行市场价格”出售原油非常困难。油田服务行业也还没有从2014年的油价下跌中恢复过来，而当前的低需求环境更是令该行业雪上加霜。

规模较小的企业将重新关注于降低运营成本，那些反应迅速、灵活、战略审慎的公司，很可能在中长期内处于更有利的地位。

邹勤 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

US Oil Price Drop Not Reflective of Global Sector

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price drop is not reflective of the oil and gas industry worldwide but is very specifically driven by the production and demand imbalance in the United States.

That’s what Aberdeen-based Derek Leith, EY’s Global Lead for Oil and Gas Tax, said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.

“Most of the production is land-locked, and with storage facilities close to maximum capacity a further fall in the U.S. benchmark crude, WTI, was inevitable,” Leith told Rigzone.

The EY representative outlined that the “headline-grabbing” oil price of -$40 per barrel was driven by a “relatively small” number of May contracts held by financial traders having to be sold before they expired and the sellers finding there were “absolutely no buyers”.

Leith went on to say that the OPEC+ supply cuts will “shift things in the right direction” but highlighted that these do not start until May 1.

“In the medium term this action should be enough to rebalance the relationship between supply and demand as global demand will increase as the Covid-19 lockdown comes to an end,” Leith stated.

“However, we should expect a lot of volatility over the next couple of months and for crude prices to sit in the lower range as we experience a supply overhang of as much as 15 million barrels a day,” he added.

WTI Plunge Stark Reminder of Volatility

Leith warned that, while Monday’s plunging WTI price won’t directly impact the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), it’s a “stark reminder” of oil price volatility and that smaller UKCS producers may find it “very hard” to sell their crude at the “prevailing market rate”.

“The oil field services sector hasn’t recovered from the 2014 fall in oil price and this has been compounded by the current low-demand environment,” Leith stated.

“There is likely to be a renewed focus and rigour on decreasing operational costs, particularly for smaller players,” he added.

“The companies which respond quickly, are agile and carefully strategic are likely to emerge in a better position in the medium and long-term,” Leith went on to say.