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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场出现调整格局，股指在冲破1300点后面临较大的调整压力，持续两周的做多气氛有所消退。基金重仓股的表现出现分化，周期类个股调整明显。但从上周基金的操作来看，基金的持仓水平仍然有持续上升的迹象。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五73只开放式基金加权平均仓位达到了66.96%，，比前周的64.73%继续显著上升了2.23%；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为69.85%，比前周的68.88%上升了0.96%，再度接近了70%的高仓位水平。从具体基金的仓位变动来看，上周基金基本上延续了前一周的操作方向，多数基金都显示为小幅增仓。但由于上周市场总体下跌，因此扣除价格因素以后显示为增仓迹象的基金大幅增加。仓位净变动5%以上的由前一周的3只基金上升为11只基金，其中，中国优势、中融行业2只基金持续增持。增仓的基金主要还是仓位相对较轻的基金，显示为增仓的基金其仓位都在65%以下。此外上周增加了东方龙、盛利混合、大成精选等7只开放式基金的仓位测算。测算结果表明7只新基金的平均仓位为26.57%，其中大成精选、博时主题行业、天治品质等3只基金建仓相对较快，而其余几只基金建仓谨慎。
从仓位变化上来看，近两周基金的增仓态势已经较为明显，这一迹象值得关注。首先这表明基金对市场的总体判断为谨慎偏乐观。从年前股指下探1200反弹以来，多数基金对市场的判断是处于由熊转牛的震荡市阶段，这种情况下轻仓的基金会适当增加股票仓位。其二是基金可能在什么板块上有所增持。虽然连续两周仓位有较明显的上升，但并不表明基金的操作方向是单边的，基金很可能在一些重仓板块上继续进行着结构性的调整，而周期类股票可能成为基金调整持仓的重点。周期类股票是此轮反弹中带动基金重仓板块走强的重要力量，基金可能在近期表现较强的如钢铁、石化板块中有较大规模的增持。但受制于矿产能源价格变动等不确定因素，周期类股票的价值重估也受到明显的抑制。这使得基金必须相应地作出动态调整。从上周的市场情况来看，基金重仓股总体处于滞涨状态。但从涨跌幅股票的分布来看，防御性的高速公路、港口等股票仍保持强势，电力板块走强，而前期表现较好的周期性股票如钢铁、有色金属、汽车等则出现了比较明显的调整。由此似乎可以看到基金持续调整持仓的思路。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
国泰金鹰 |
64.71% |
57.98% |
6.72% |
7.21% |
增仓迹象 |
中融行业 |
66.71% |
60.22% |
6.49% |
6.97% |
中国优势 |
67.42% |
61.38% |
6.04% |
6.52% |
富国价值 |
67.49% |
61.84% |
5.66% |
6.13% |
景顺股票 |
67.96% |
62.60% |
5.36% |
5.83% |
南方积配 |
51.16% |
45.92% |
5.24% |
5.74% |
易方达平稳 |
67.25% |
62.04% |
5.21% |
5.69% |
国泰精选 |
68.75% |
63.63% |
5.12% |
5.58% |
易基成长 |
65.48% |
60.59% |
4.89% |
5.37% |
银华 88 |
59.31% |
54.60% |
4.71% |
5.21% |
招商平衡 |
50.17% |
45.60% |
4.57% |
5.07% |
广发稳健 |
64.81% |
60.33% |
4.49% |
4.97% |
仓位稳定 |
广发聚富 |
70.26% |
65.77% |
4.49% |
4.95% |
金鹰精选 |
75.76% |
71.30% |
4.46% |
4.87% |
海富收益 |
47.90% |
43.60% |
4.30% |
4.80% |
宝康配置 |
51.19% |
47.07% |
4.12% |
4.62% |
长盛成长 |
70.30% |
66.19% |
4.11% |
4.57% |
中国 50 |
64.58% |
60.69% |
3.89% |
4.37% |
华夏大盘 |
68.70% |
64.80% |
3.90% |
4.36% |
银华优势 |
64.51% |
60.70% |
3.81% |
4.29% |
招商股票 |
63.81% |
60.01% |
3.80% |
4.29% |
南方稳健 |
70.57% |
66.74% |
3.83% |
4.28% |
招商先锋 |
67.79% |
64.02% |
3.77% |
4.24% |
大成稳健 |
71.49% |
67.71% |
3.78% |
4.23% |
景顺内需 |
74.13% |
70.49% |
3.64% |
4.06% |
景顺平衡 |
52.31% |
48.77% |
3.55% |
4.05% |
宝利配置 |
41.37% |
37.87% |
3.51% |
3.98% |
银河稳健 |
71.37% |
67.97% |
3.40% |
3.84% |
银河理财 |
66.96% |
63.69% |
3.27% |
3.74% |
长城久恒 |
66.94% |
63.69% |
3.25% |
3.71% |
长盛动态 |
51.88% |
48.71% |
3.16% |
3.67% |
嘉实增长 |
63.75% |
60.59% |
3.16% |
3.64% |
博时精选 |
66.71% |
63.57% |
3.14% |
3.60% |
荷银精选 |
75.96% |
72.90% |
3.06% |
3.46% |
华夏回报 |
67.68% |
64.71% |
2.97% |
3.43% |
融通成长 |
70.59% |
67.73% |
2.87% |
3.31% |
申万精选 |
64.68% |
62.16% |
2.52% |
2.99% |
鹏华行业 |
65.98% |
63.46% |
2.52% |
2.99% |
国泰稳健 |
64.87% |
62.52% |
2.35% |
2.82% |
易方达策略 |
76.43% |
74.12% |
2.31% |
2.69% |
合丰稳定 |
73.52% |
71.29% |
2.23% |
2.65% |
嘉实稳健 |
56.88% |
54.85% |
2.03% |
2.53% |
宝盈鸿利 |
70.38% |
68.32% |
2.06% |
2.49% |
融通行业 |
72.25% |
70.28% |
1.97% |
2.39% |
融通新蓝筹 |
76.72% |
74.74% |
1.98% |
2.36% |
国联成长 |
72.12% |
70.36% |
1.76% |
2.18% |
华宝策略 |
70.46% |
68.72% |
1.75% |
2.18% |
嘉实服务 |
66.37% |
64.65% |
1.72% |
2.18% |
宝康消费 |
67.29% |
65.65% |
1.65% |
2.10% |
富国动态 |
64.88% |
63.52% |
1.36% |
1.82% |
海富通精选 |
67.88% |
66.88% |
1.00% |
1.45% |
光大保德 |
77.88% |
76.85% |
1.03% |
1.39% |
华夏成长 |
73.39% |
72.43% |
0.96% |
1.36% |
博时裕富 |
95.45% |
94.24% |
1.21% |
1.32% |
长城久泰 |
88.66% |
87.66% |
1.00% |
1.22% |
华安 180 |
78.24% |
77.40% |
0.84% |
1.19% |
易方达 50 |
94.09% |
93.13% |
0.95% |
1.08% |
合丰周期 |
80.00% |
79.59% |
0.41% |
0.74% |
德盛稳健 |
63.51% |
63.70% |
-0.19% |
0.28% |
天同 180 |
79.20% |
79.42% |
-0.22% |
0.11% |
巨田基础 |
73.18% |
73.52% |
-0.34% |
0.05% |
合丰成长 |
74.03% |
74.37% |
-0.34% |
0.04% |
金鹰优选 |
76.22% |
76.54% |
-0.32% |
0.04% |
泰信策略 |
59.65% |
60.22% |
-0.56% |
-0.08% |
融通 100 |
77.66% |
78.57% |
-0.91% |
-0.57% |
博时价值 |
78.98% |
79.89% |
-0.91% |
-0.59% |
天治增长 |
34.08% |
35.26% |
-1.18% |
-0.72% |
诺安平衡 |
58.53% |
60.14% |
-1.61% |
-1.13% |
大成价值 |
67.61% |
69.54% |
-1.93% |
-1.51% |
德盛精选 |
52.61% |
54.76% |
-2.16% |
-1.66% |
华安创新 |
64.10% |
66.44% |
-2.34% |
-1.89% |
嘉实成长 |
66.41% |
68.83% |
-2.42% |
-1.99% |
普天收益 |
63.08% |
65.82% |
-2.74% |
-2.28% |
东方龙 |
13.70% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
－ |
盛利混合 |
8.66% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
大成精选 |
57.95% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
中银中国 |
5.29% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
博时主题 |
42.89% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
天治品质 |
43.33% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
长信银利 |
14.20% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
加权平均 |
66.96% |
64.73% |
2.23% |
2.69% |
仓位稳定 |
上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2005-03-04 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金景阳 |
70.68% |
67.54% |
3.14% |
3.58% |
仓位稳定 |
基金裕隆 |
72.70% |
69.67% |
3.03% |
3.46% |
基金汉盛 |
69.68% |
66.79% |
2.89% |
3.34% |
基金科瑞 |
72.68% |
69.78% |
2.90% |
3.33% |
基金天元 |
73.07% |
70.70% |
2.37% |
2.79% |
基金科汇 |
77.51% |
75.11% |
2.40% |
2.78% |
基金鸿阳 |
75.30% |
73.01% |
2.29% |
2.69% |
基金科翔 |
75.30% |
73.01% |
2.29% |
2.69% |
基金融鑫 |
64.20% |
62.03% |
2.18% |
2.65% |
基金安顺 |
67.54% |
65.43% |
2.11% |
2.57% |
基金同盛 |
65.32% |
63.23% |
2.10% |
2.57% |
基金银丰 |
70.69% |
68.57% |
2.12% |
2.55% |
基金兴科 |
71.67% |
69.57% |
2.11% |
2.53% |
基金景业 |
69.78% |
67.79% |
1.99% |
2.43% |
基金金元 |
68.68% |
66.80% |
1.88% |
2.33% |
基金通宝 |
71.70% |
69.80% |
1.90% |
2.33% |
基金兴和 |
71.70% |
69.90% |
1.80% |
2.23% |
基金汉鼎 |
72.07% |
70.67% |
1.40% |
1.82% |
基金普华 |
72.07% |
70.68% |
1.39% |
1.81% |
基金开元 |
72.07% |
70.69% |
1.38% |
1.80% |
基金裕元 |
72.07% |
70.69% |
1.38% |
1.80% |
基金安信 |
68.75% |
67.54% |
1.21% |
1.65% |
基金金泰 |
68.76% |
67.56% |
1.19% |
1.64% |
基金裕阳 |
69.87% |
68.69% |
1.18% |
1.62% |
基金久富 |
75.42% |
74.20% |
1.22% |
1.61% |
基金同德 |
73.20% |
72.01% |
1.19% |
1.60% |
基金景博 |
69.88% |
68.77% |
1.11% |
1.55% |
基金兴华 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金金盛 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金丰和 |
69.88% |
68.80% |
1.08% |
1.52% |
基金兴安 |
70.70% |
69.67% |
1.02% |
1.45% |
基金普丰 |
69.89% |
68.88% |
1.01% |
1.44% |
基金汉兴 |
70.67% |
69.76% |
0.91% |
1.33% |
基金久嘉 |
70.70% |
69.87% |
0.82% |
1.25% |
基金科讯 |
74.37% |
73.70% |
0.67% |
1.06% |
基金金鼎 |
72.17% |
71.70% |
0.47% |
0.88% |
基金安瑞 |
65.52% |
65.20% |
0.32% |
0.78% |
基金裕华 |
72.20% |
72.01% |
0.19% |
0.60% |
基金景宏 |
69.99% |
69.88% |
0.11% |
0.53% |
基金汉博 |
68.89% |
68.88% |
0.01% |
0.45% |
基金安久 |
68.97% |
69.67% |
-0.71% |
-0.28% |
基金同益 |
65.64% |
66.43% |
-0.79% |
-0.34% |
基金普惠 |
66.76% |
67.55% |
-0.80% |
-0.36% |
基金裕泽 |
64.53% |
65.35% |
-0.81% |
-0.36% |
基金鸿飞 |
66.77% |
67.68% |
-0.91% |
-0.47% |
基金通乾 |
66.77% |
67.68% |
-0.91% |
-0.47% |
基金泰和 |
67.88% |
68.80% |
-0.92% |
-0.49% |
基金金鑫 |
66.79% |
67.89% |
-1.10% |
-0.66% |
基金同智 |
70.17% |
71.68% |
-1.51% |
-1.10% |
基金隆元 |
70.17% |
71.68% |
-1.51% |
-1.10% |
基金天华 |
65.75% |
67.46% |
-1.71% |
-1.27% |
基金兴业 |
72.41% |
74.10% |
-1.69% |
-1.30% |
基金景福 |
67.98% |
69.78% |
-1.80% |
-1.37% |
基金普润 |
72.42% |
74.21% |
-1.79% |
-1.40% |
加权平均 |
69.85% |
68.88% |
0.96% |
1.40% |
仓位稳定 |
封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；
加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2005-03-04 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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