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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场走势再度重复了前几次触底反弹的走势。出于对政策利好的期待，节前股指大幅反弹；但节后这种强劲走势没能延续，股指持续缩量回调，显示市场信心仍不充分。而从节前至今基金的操作来看，基金在此番反弹中并未扮演积极角色，基金仓位普遍有所降低。从基金的操作来看基金对近期市场的态度仍然谨慎，这也意味着市场走势的不确定性仍
然较大。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五73只开放式基金加权平均仓位为62.03%，比前周的63.68%下降了1.65个百分点；而考虑到股指大幅上涨带来的被动仓位变化因素，开放式基金实际上减仓更为明显，平均仓位下降约2.02%。封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为67.21%，比前周的67.47%略将0.26%。从具体基金的仓位变动来看，节前反弹至今多数基金仓位略有下降，其中减仓较明显的有天治财富增长、海富通收益、招商股票等6只基金； 此外招商平衡、国泰精选等十多只基金仓位下降也在4%以上。
从近一段的市场情况来看，部分基金重仓股成为带动大盘反转的指标。节前的最后三个交易日齐鲁石化(资讯 行情 论坛)、武钢股份(资讯 行情 论坛)、扬子石化(资讯 行情 论坛)等一批基金重仓股走高，推动了股指的暴涨。但在节后又以武钢股份、齐鲁石化等重仓股为首成为做空动力。从基金在周内的总体减持态势来看，基金在此轮反弹中的作用耐人寻味。首先基金重仓股的大幅上涨应该并非由基金推动。在对政策利好的期待下股指出现暴涨，很可能是短线资金利用基金重仓股的指标性作用发动反弹。但从成交量的持续萎缩来看，这轮反弹缺乏外围的主流资金参与。在政策预期消退后股指再度面临着调整压力。而基金在整个过程中表现得较为理性，并未追涨建仓而是利用反弹的机会进行主动性的减持，这也表明基金对目前市场态度仍趋谨慎。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
中国优势 |
53.92% |
49.20% |
4.71% |
4.09% |
仓位稳定 |
合丰周期 |
76.96% |
72.81% |
4.15% |
3.66% |
合丰成长 |
72.34% |
68.27% |
4.07% |
3.53% |
荷银精选 |
70.19% |
66.39% |
3.80% |
3.24% |
融通新蓝筹 |
70.16% |
66.39% |
3.77% |
3.22% |
中融行业 |
51.49% |
47.98% |
3.51% |
2.89% |
融通行业 |
68.13% |
64.95% |
3.18% |
2.61% |
德盛稳健 |
60.50% |
57.84% |
2.67% |
2.06% |
华夏回报 |
59.63% |
57.00% |
2.62% |
2.01% |
华夏大盘 |
61.45% |
58.88% |
2.58% |
1.97% |
国联成长 |
65.43% |
62.98% |
2.45% |
1.87% |
银华 88 |
54.23% |
52.04% |
2.19% |
1.57% |
博时价值 |
79.61% |
77.98% |
1.63% |
1.20% |
博时裕富 |
93.48% |
92.13% |
1.35% |
1.17% |
银河理财 |
60.26% |
58.68% |
1.58% |
0.98% |
南方积配 |
41.83% |
40.47% |
1.36% |
0.76% |
融通 100 |
77.66% |
76.55% |
1.10% |
0.66% |
华安 180 |
76.03% |
75.25% |
0.78% |
0.32% |
广发稳健 |
56.32% |
55.48% |
0.84% |
0.22% |
天同 180 |
77.31% |
76.88% |
0.44% |
0.00% |
长城久泰 |
84.47% |
84.67% |
-0.20% |
-0.52% |
易基成长 |
56.19% |
56.17% |
0.03% |
-0.59% |
泰信策略 |
58.23% |
58.24% |
0.00% |
-0.61% |
金鹰精选 |
68.26% |
68.36% |
-0.10% |
-0.64% |
富国价值 |
58.83% |
59.28% |
-0.44% |
-1.05% |
大成价值 |
66.41% |
67.03% |
-0.62% |
-1.17% |
宝康消费 |
61.28% |
61.87% |
-0.59% |
-1.18% |
国泰稳健 |
59.83% |
60.72% |
-0.89% |
-1.49% |
金鹰优选 |
74.47% |
75.59% |
-1.12% |
-1.58% |
易方达 50 |
93.10% |
94.74% |
-1.63% |
-1.76% |
景顺内需 |
65.50% |
66.86% |
-1.36% |
-1.91% |
华宝策略 |
65.34% |
66.85% |
-1.51% |
-2.07% |
博时精选 |
63.56% |
65.22% |
-1.66% |
-2.22% |
中国 50 |
56.84% |
58.57% |
-1.73% |
-2.34% |
融通成长 |
68.57% |
70.52% |
-1.95% |
-2.47% |
长城久恒 |
59.61% |
61.59% |
-1.98% |
-2.57% |
招商先锋 |
65.38% |
67.58% |
-2.21% |
-2.75% |
易方达策略 |
72.67% |
75.08% |
-2.41% |
-2.88% |
景顺平衡 |
45.19% |
47.50% |
-2.31% |
-2.93% |
富国动态 |
58.09% |
60.58% |
-2.50% |
-3.09% |
光大保德 |
73.94% |
76.78% |
-2.83% |
-3.28% |
合丰稳定 |
67.35% |
70.11% |
-2.76% |
-3.28% |
德盛精选 |
53.44% |
56.11% |
-2.67% |
-3.29% |
广发聚富 |
63.01% |
65.74% |
-2.73% |
-3.29% |
嘉实服务 |
61.02% |
63.81% |
-2.79% |
-3.36% |
大成稳健 |
65.35% |
68.18% |
-2.83% |
-3.37% |
嘉实稳健 |
50.49% |
53.28% |
-2.80% |
-3.42% |
鹏华行业 |
59.60% |
62.59% |
-2.98% |
-3.56% |
易方达平稳 |
57.32% |
60.31% |
-2.99% |
-3.59% |
海富通精选 |
64.13% |
67.28% |
-3.14% |
-3.69% |
华安创新 |
65.39% |
68.57% |
-3.19% |
-3.72% |
宝利配置 |
36.25% |
39.38% |
-3.13% |
-3.72% |
巨田基础 |
72.03% |
75.43% |
-3.40% |
-3.86% |
申万精选 |
56.45% |
59.80% |
-3.35% |
-3.95% |
普天收益 |
58.59% |
62.02% |
-3.44% |
-4.02% |
华夏成长 |
69.68% |
73.27% |
-3.59% |
-4.08% |
银河稳健 |
68.30% |
71.93% |
-3.62% |
-4.13% |
长盛成长 |
64.10% |
67.69% |
-3.59% |
-4.14% |
嘉实增长 |
61.58% |
65.28% |
-3.69% |
-4.26% |
宝康配置 |
47.34% |
51.05% |
-3.71% |
-4.33% |
景顺股票 |
59.76% |
63.59% |
-3.83% |
-4.41% |
嘉实成长 |
66.41% |
70.55% |
-4.14% |
-4.66% |
长盛动态 |
49.37% |
53.50% |
-4.13% |
-4.75% |
南方稳健 |
63.26% |
67.49% |
-4.23% |
-4.78% |
宝盈鸿利 |
66.82% |
71.12% |
-4.30% |
-4.81% |
国泰精选 |
59.71% |
64.10% |
-4.39% |
-4.96% |
招商平衡 |
45.38% |
49.74% |
-4.36% |
-4.98% |
天治增长 |
37.20% |
41.68% |
-4.48% |
-5.09% |
减持迹象 |
国泰金鹰 |
55.14% |
59.65% |
-4.50% |
-5.11% |
诺安平衡 |
59.62% |
64.16% |
-4.54% |
-5.11% |
招商股票 |
61.45% |
66.03% |
-4.58% |
-5.14% |
海富收益 |
39.54% |
44.14% |
-4.60% |
-5.22% |
银华优势 |
57.11% |
63.48% |
-6.37% |
-6.95% |
加权平均 |
62.03% |
63.68% |
-1.65% |
-2.02% |
仓位稳定 |
* 上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考
资料来源：中信证券 数据截至：2005-02-18 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金安瑞 |
62.03% |
60.27% |
1.76% |
1.16% |
仓位稳定 |
基金普润 |
72.07% |
70.68% |
1.39% |
0.88% |
基金科讯 |
69.85% |
68.47% |
1.38% |
0.84% |
基金景阳 |
65.40% |
64.02% |
1.38% |
0.80% |
基金金鼎 |
69.86% |
68.57% |
1.29% |
0.75% |
基金久嘉 |
68.75% |
67.46% |
1.29% |
0.74% |
基金同智 |
67.64% |
66.42% |
1.22% |
0.66% |
基金汉兴 |
67.64% |
66.43% |
1.21% |
0.65% |
基金汉博 |
68.76% |
67.58% |
1.18% |
0.64% |
基金普丰 |
68.77% |
67.68% |
1.09% |
0.55% |
基金景博 |
67.66% |
66.57% |
1.09% |
0.53% |
基金安信 |
65.44% |
64.36% |
1.08% |
0.51% |
基金同益 |
64.32% |
63.24% |
1.08% |
0.50% |
基金安顺 |
64.33% |
63.26% |
1.07% |
0.49% |
基金兴业 |
71.02% |
70.17% |
0.85% |
0.33% |
基金景宏 |
68.80% |
67.97% |
0.83% |
0.28% |
基金隆元 |
67.69% |
66.86% |
0.82% |
0.27% |
基金科汇 |
71.07% |
70.68% |
0.39% |
-0.13% |
基金金鑫 |
68.86% |
68.57% |
0.29% |
-0.25% |
基金景福 |
67.75% |
67.55% |
0.21% |
-0.34% |
基金科瑞 |
67.76% |
67.57% |
0.19% |
-0.36% |
基金普惠 |
65.54% |
65.37% |
0.17% |
-0.39% |
基金裕隆 |
66.68% |
66.78% |
-0.10% |
-0.65% |
基金同盛 |
62.27% |
62.66% |
-0.39% |
-0.97% |
基金鸿阳 |
70.06% |
70.65% |
-0.58% |
-1.10% |
基金科翔 |
70.07% |
70.66% |
-0.59% |
-1.11% |
基金裕元 |
68.95% |
69.55% |
-0.59% |
-1.12% |
基金同德 |
70.07% |
70.67% |
-0.60% |
-1.12% |
基金兴和 |
68.97% |
69.65% |
-0.69% |
-1.22% |
基金兴安 |
66.74% |
67.42% |
-0.68% |
-1.23% |
基金安久 |
66.75% |
67.46% |
-0.71% |
-1.26% |
基金汉鼎 |
66.75% |
67.48% |
-0.73% |
-1.28% |
基金兴华 |
67.86% |
68.65% |
-0.78% |
-1.32% |
基金景业 |
67.87% |
68.65% |
-0.79% |
-1.32% |
基金金盛 |
67.87% |
68.66% |
-0.79% |
-1.33% |
基金鸿飞 |
66.75% |
67.55% |
-0.79% |
-1.34% |
基金普华 |
67.87% |
68.68% |
-0.81% |
-1.34% |
基金金泰 |
65.64% |
66.44% |
-0.79% |
-1.35% |
基金裕华 |
70.10% |
71.00% |
-0.90% |
-1.41% |
基金兴科 |
65.65% |
66.55% |
-0.89% |
-1.45% |
基金通乾 |
66.77% |
67.69% |
-0.92% |
-1.46% |
基金汉盛 |
67.89% |
68.95% |
-1.05% |
-1.58% |
基金银丰 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-1.63% |
基金天华 |
64.57% |
65.65% |
-1.09% |
-1.65% |
基金裕泽 |
63.48% |
64.79% |
-1.31% |
-1.88% |
基金久富 |
70.16% |
71.65% |
-1.48% |
-1.99% |
基金通宝 |
67.96% |
69.56% |
-1.60% |
-2.13% |
基金金元 |
67.98% |
69.78% |
-1.80% |
-2.32% |
基金丰和 |
67.98% |
69.79% |
-1.81% |
-2.33% |
基金裕阳 |
66.88% |
68.76% |
-1.89% |
-2.42% |
基金开元 |
68.71% |
70.65% |
-1.94% |
-2.46% |
基金泰和 |
67.99% |
69.94% |
-1.94% |
-2.47% |
基金天元 |
68.00% |
69.95% |
-1.96% |
-2.48% |
基金融鑫 |
60.27% |
62.68% |
-2.41% |
-2.99% |
加权平均 |
67.21% |
67.47% |
-0.26% |
-0.81% |
仓位稳定 |
* 封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
资料来源：中信证券 数据截至：2005-02-18 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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