【国盛策略】震荡继续,等待春天——A股市场四季度策略
尧望后势 分析师:张启尧
四季度仍以震荡为主:1、经济阶段性有韧性。2、货币政策宽松是大方向,但四季度空间不大。3、贸易摩擦、英国脱欧等外部风险在缓和或钝化。4、目前未出现导致系统性调整的风险点,也未看到大幅向上的催化因素,震荡仍是主基调。5、不确定性:1)海外经济及股市风险;2)11月MSCI扩容会否带来显著外资增量。
行情或在明年春天开启:明年年初,通胀压力进一步上行。“类滞胀”环境或使市场承压,此时是更好的布局机会。随着春节后通胀高点逐渐过去,经济下行压力加大,货币宽松再次打开空间,行情或在春天开启。
行业上关注三条主线:1、景气向上子行业,如半导体、风电光伏、汽车等。2、低估值权重板块,如银行和地产。3、龙头公司估值修复仍未结束。
具体分析详见2019年10月23日发布的《震荡继续,等待春天——A股市场四季度策略》报告
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