天风汽车-特斯拉年报：千亿市值、能源革命|特斯拉_新浪财经

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来源：学学看汽车

联系人：邓学、陈嫣

视频：Tesla-Autopilot-Neural Networks

内容目录

1.事件点评

2.图表

3.电话会议详细纪要

事件

事件：北京时间1月30日凌晨，特斯拉（TSLA.O）发布了2019年第四季度财务报告：Q4实现营业收入73.8亿美元，同比上升2.2%；营业利润3.6亿美元，同比下降13.2%；归母净利润1.05亿美元，同比下降25%。全年公司营业收入增长14.5%至245.8亿美元，营业亏损为6900万美元，较上年同期减少3.2亿美元。归母净亏损8.6亿美元，同比下降11.7%。第四季度自由现金流10.1亿美元，环比增长173%。

点评

四季度和全年毛利有所上升，汽车板块毛利率超预期。

特斯拉2019Q4实现毛利13.91亿美元，同比下降3.6%，环比上升16.97%，主要是汽车业务毛利提升；全年毛利40.69亿美元，同比上升0.67%。Q4毛利率为18.8%，环比Q3有小幅下降，其中汽车业务毛利率在上海超级工厂投产增加折旧和摊销的基础上，仍保持在22.5%的高水平；全年毛利率16.6%，同比下降2.3%，汽车业务毛利率为21.2%，同比下降2.2%，主要受汽车租赁比重提高，Model 3销量占比提高和ASP下调影响。

四季度销量创纪录，Model 3热销，新订单占比高，展望Model Y。

根据财报显示，特斯拉2019Q4实现交付112,095辆，同比上升23.6%，其中Model 3为92,620辆，同比上升46.7%，全球库存周转天数再创新低，仅为11天；2019全年交付量为367,295辆，同比上升50.0%，其中 Model 3交付创新高，同比增长106.5%，2019年多数订单为新买家，在未有广告费用的前提下，预计2020年销量会在Model Y和上海超级工厂的推动下继续上升；Model S和X销量乏力，交付同比下降32.9%，总交付达成全年36万最低交付目标。预计特斯拉2020年全球销量约为50-60万辆，2021年约为90万辆。预计Model Y交付12.5万，在手订单超20万辆，交付提前，预计第三季度所有配置车型均可交付。

产能有望持续扩张，产能布局全球化拓展。

美国Fremont工厂方面，目前Model Y处于产能爬坡阶段，预计2020Q1末开始交付。Model 3和Y总年产能达到40万辆，后续产能将继续扩张，生产车间增加额外设备，预计2020年中达到50万年产能；上海工厂方面，随着零部件国产化提升将会带来毛利率的改善，上海工厂产能有望大幅增长，Model 3和电池组生产持续爬坡，二期工程已破土动工，鉴于SUV车型热销，未来Model Y产能可以与Model 3持平，Model Y生产进度提前，产能爬坡开始于2020年1月；柏林-勃兰登堡工厂已经进入准备阶段，首批车辆交付预计在2021年开始。

储能业务需求强劲，全年装机量再创新高，同比增长58.8%。在光伏和储能业务方面，2019Q4特斯拉的光伏发电装机量为54MW，环比上升25.6%；储能装机量达到历史新高530MWh，同比上升135.6%，环比上升11.1%。2019全年储能装机量1.65GWh，超过其他年份的总和，预计2020年光伏和储能业务继续保持快速增长，装机量同比上升超50%。

自动驾驶性能持续提升，Model Y续航里程极值突破500公里。据最新视频显示，目前车辆搭载的FSD已可判断交通路口信号灯的颜色，视觉识别范围进一步扩大，覆盖地面湿滑状况，天气状况及分别车道。从续航里程来看，由于Model Y全轮驱动工程的持续进展，该车型的最大续航里程已提高至507公里。

汽车软件持续升级，未来贡献收益，智能终端凸显。9.99 美元/月（含税）汽车软件高级连接服务，在美国市场2019Q4首次推出。该功能旨在让车主通过嵌入式终端听音乐、上网等。同时，在app中可购买不同的软件升级，例如Autopilot, FSD, acceleration boost等其他高级功能。

零部件国产化率提升，带来供应链投资机遇。

2019年12月30日，特斯拉高层在国产Model 3交付仪式上表示，目前下线车辆的零部件国产化率达到30%，明年年中可达80%，年底实现全国产化。推荐:常熟汽饰、宁波华翔、宁德时代（机械团队覆盖）、科达利（电新团队覆盖）、旭升股份、拓普集团、岱美股份。

特斯拉官宣与CATL和LG合作，动力电池国产供应链受益。

特斯拉单车价值量拆分,电池系统占比最大,约32%。电芯主要厂商宁德时代和LG成为公司在动力电池领域的新合作伙伴，双双受益，LG、【宁德时代】引领全球动力电池核心技术及其产业链，建议重点关注。

风险提示

经济低迷、产能爬坡不及预期、成本降幅不及预期、需求不足、竞品强劲

电话纪要概要

团队对未来十年充满信心。（全文见文末）

1）四季度和全年毛利有所上升，汽车板块毛利率超预期。

2）四季度销量创纪录，Model 3热销，新订单占比高，展望Model Y。Model Y交付提前，预计第三季度所有配置车型均可交付。

3）产能有望持续扩张，产能布局全球化拓展。

4）储能业务需求强劲，全年装机量再创新高，同比增长58.8%。

5）自动驾驶性能持续提升，Model Y续航里程极值突破500公里。

6）零部件国产化率提升，带来供应链投资机遇。

7）特斯拉官宣与CATL和LG合作。

8）上海工厂：产能持续爬坡，冠状病毒早期影响中，还在监测这一事件对供应链及利润率影响。

9）保险业务会持续持续增长，目前在加州可用，基于Autopilot，预计每个用户会付出100-200美金。

数据图表

电话纪要

特斯拉电话会议概要：

现金

• 第四季度现金及现金等价物为63亿美元，增长9.3亿美元

• 第四季度减去资本支出后的运营现金流（自由现金流）达10亿美元

利润

• 第四季度GAAP运营收益为3.59亿美元，营业毛利率为4.9%

• GAAP净收益为1.05亿美元，非GAAP净收益（不包括股权激励费用）为3.86亿美元

运营

•团队对未来10年充满兴奋。回顾从2010 年到今天的 10 年，汽车产量约比 2010 年的产量增加了 1,000 倍，周产能达到 8,000 辆。太阳能屋顶，Powerwall 和 Powerpack 等产品。

• Model Y生产进度提前，产能爬坡开始于2020年1月，预计毛利高于Model 3。

• Model Y全轮驱动EPA里程由280英里提高至315英里

• 第四季度车辆交付量创纪录，达到112,095辆

• 第四季度储能产品装机量创纪录，达530MWh，太阳能业务环比增长26%

要点总结：团队对未来十年充满信心。

1）四季度和全年毛利有所上升，汽车板块毛利率超预期。

2）四季度销量创纪录，Model 3热销，新订单占比高，展望Model Y。Model Y交付提前，预计第三季度所有配置车型均可交付。

3）产能有望持续扩张，产能布局全球化拓展。

4）储能业务需求强劲，全年装机量再创新高，同比增长58.8%。

5）自动驾驶性能持续提升，Model Y续航里程极值突破500公里。

6）零部件国产化率提升，带来供应链投资机遇。

7）特斯拉官宣与CATL和LG合作。

8）上海工厂：产能持续爬坡，冠状病毒早期影响中，还在监测这一事件对供应链及利润率影响。

9）保险业务会持续持续增长，目前在加州可用，基于Autopilot，预计每个用户会付出100-200美金。

特斯拉电话会议详细纪要内容：

2019Q4整体经营情况总结

伊隆·马斯克Elon Musk (特斯拉CEO)

第四季度对该公司来说极为强劲。单季度交付量超过 112,000 辆。很难想到需求量如此之⼤的同类产品，其⼴告支出为零，并产⽣超过 200 亿美元的收⼊。拥有世界上需求最⾼的电动汽车却没有⼴告支出是我的不凡之处，并说明了产品的本质和产品本身具有⾜够的吸引⼒，⾜以在没有⼤量⼴告的情况下产⽣这种需求。

So Q4 was another strong quarter for the company. Our deliveries reached over 112,000 vehicles in a single quarter. It's hard to think of a similar product with such strong demand that it can generate more than $20 billion in revenue with zero advertising spend. I think that's like where we do say that from time-to-time and I think it's often overlooked, but to have the highest demand electric vehicle in the world with no advertising spend is I think quite remarkable and speaks to the nature of the product and the fact that the product itself is compelling enough to generate that demand without much of advertising.

在弗里蒙特⼯厂，我们的产量与 NUMMI ⼯厂在其创纪录的 2006 年的⽣产率⼤致相同，显然，我们预计今年将⼤⼤超过该产量。我们甚⾄开始使用 Fremont ⽣产 Model Y ，这种⽣产率是⾼效的，因此，超出这个数字的潜⼒很⼤。

At our Fremont factory we're producing at a rate roughly the same as the NUMMI factory did in its record year of 2006 and obviously we expect to exceed that significantly this year. This rate of production was cheap before we even started to produce the Model Y out of Fremont, so there's lot of potential to go beyond that number.

对于上海⼯厂，我要再次祝贺上海团队于上个季度推出 Model 3，并于今年初实现了首批交付。我对上海⼯厂的潜⼒感到非常兴奋和乐观。我认为这对公司来说将是⼀笔不可思议的财富，我们还在上海生产Model Y 车型的二期⼯厂破⼟动⼯，因此在那里取得了许多良好的进展。

For the Shanghai factory, I'd like to say congratulations again to the team in Shanghai on launching Model 3 last quarter and achieving the first deliveries earlier this year. I'm really excited and optimistic about the potential for the Shanghai factory. I think it's going to be an incredible asset to the company and we also broke ground on the Model Y factory in Shanghai, so lot of good progress there.

关于 Model Y车型，仅在 10 个月前，我们发布了 Y 型原型。从今年 1 月开始，我们已开始限量⽣产 Y 型。这要归功于我们的⼯程团队的不懈努⼒，我们成功实现了迄今为⽌以每千瓦时 4.1 英里的速度⽣产的电动 SUV 中最⾼的能源效率，这意味着 Y 型四轮驱动器的EPA额定值为 315 英里，到今天为⽌，这种改进已反映在配置器上。这比我们先前说的要⾼得多。

Regarding Model Y, it was only 10 months ago that we revealed a Model Y prototype. And now in January this year, we started producing Model Y in limited volumes already. Now this is thanks to a great effort of our engineering team and we managed to achieve by far the highest energy efficiency of any electric SUV ever produced at 4.1 miles per kilowatt hour, which means Model Y four wheeler drive got EPA rating of 315 miles and this improvement is reflected on the configurator as of today. This is above what we previously stated by a pretty significant margin.

对于 Cybertruck，⼏个月前，我们发布了它并且获得极高的热度。我们试图构建⼀种在各⽅面都出⾊的产品，⽽没有对这种产品的外观敢为⼈先，并且配备极⼤的加速，最⾼的速度，这实际上是⼀个令⼈难以置信的规格。

And then just with great acceleration, top speed, it's really just an incredible specs all around. For the Cybertruck, a few months ago, we revealed -- obviously we revealed the Cybertruck and that was -- that went viral. And we tried to build a product that is superior in every way without any preconceptions of how such product should look so and just that with great acceleration, top speed, it's really just an incredible specs all around.

因此，从财务角度来看，回到2018 年的，我们的自由现⾦流是盈亏平衡的，但是在 2019 年，我们设法产⽣了超过 10 亿美元的自由现⾦流，同时在创纪录的时间内在上海建立了⼯厂，同时建造了 Model Y ⽣产。

So and then stepping back in 2018 from a financial standpoint, we were free cash flow was break-even, but in 2019 we managed to generate more than $1 billion of free cash flow, while building a factory in Shanghai in record time and while building parts of Model Y production.

因此，我认为对于我们来说，拥有这样⽔平的自由现⾦流，同时进⾏⼤量投资，进⾏产能开发，开发新产品，改善核⼼⼯程技术，这证明了特斯拉团队和我的表现，与如此出⾊的团队合作真是太自豪了。

So, I think to -- for us to have this level of free cash flow while making massive investments in capacity, while developing new products, while improving the core engineering is a testament to the -- I think performance of the Tesla team and I'm just so proud to work with such a great team.

我要感谢特斯拉整个团队在成本控制⽅面的不懈努⼒，这是使我们能够获得如此引⼈注目的财务数字的同时，公司以惊⼈的速度发展的原因。总⽽⾔之，当我认为未来⼏年我们将拥有 Model Y，柏林超级工厂，Tesla Semi，Solarglass Roof， Cybertruck （电池技术有了⼀些令⼈激动的改进），完全自动驾驶。我们会推出下⼀代 Roadster，并且很可能还会在其他产品中加以补充。

I'd like to thank the whole Tesla team for their ongoing work on cost control and that's what has allowed us to get to this compelling financial numbers, while at the same time growing the company at an incredible pace. And in conclusion when I think what we have in front of us, the next couple of years, we've got Model Y, we've got Giga Berlin, Tesla Semi, Solarglass Roof, Cybertruck some very exciting improvements in battery technology. We have full self-driving, we got the next-gen Roadster and probably bunch of other products we'll come up with too.

很难想到另⼀家拥有更令⼈兴奋的产品和技术路线图的公司。因此，⼈们对特斯拉在未来 10 年的发展前景极为期待。如果您回顾从2010 年到今天的 10 年，我们的汽车产量约比 2010 年的产量增加了 1,000 倍，周产能达到 8,000 辆。此外，我们有太阳能屋顶，Powerwall 和 Powerpack 等产品。因此，考虑到10年后的前景我们将非常兴奋。

It's hard to think of another company that has more exciting product and technology roadmap. So super-fired up about where Tesla will be in the next 10 years. If you look back 10 years from today to 2010, we will produce approximately 1,000 times more cars in 2020 than we produced in 2010, 8,000 and we have also Solarglass and solar retrofit and Powerwall, Powerpack, all those things too. So where we will be in 10 years, very excited to consider the prospect.

扎卡里·科克霍恩Zachary J.Kirkhorn (特斯拉CFO)

过去的⼀年对特斯拉来说确实是变⾰性的⼀年，我要感谢所有参与实现这⼀目标的⼈。在 2019 年，我想强调⼀些要点。按需提供服务，尽管我们已经提到过⼏次，但值得再次强调，在⼀年的过程中，我们已完全从⽣成 Model 3 订单从订单积压过渡到有效交付，创造新的有机的需求。

This past year was truly transformational for Tesla and I want to thank everyone who has been a part of making this happen. On 2019 a few key points I'd like to highlight. On demand, while we've mentioned a few times, it's worth highlighting once again. Over the course of the year we've transitioned entirely from generating Model 3 orders from a reservation backlog to generating new and organic demand.

在第四季度，我们还看到 Model 3 ASP 的稳定甚⾄在第四季度略有增加，并且在第⼆季度发布了更长续航版本的 Model S 和 X 车型后，ASP出现增长。

We've also seen a stabilization of Model 3 ASPs even increasing slightly in Q4 and we've seen an increase in ASPs of S and X after the launch of the longer-range versions in Q2.

关于产能扩张，我们从弗里蒙特和里诺的 Model 3 的开发和发布中学到了很多经验。因此，我们能够更快地以更低的成本带来新的产能。这在上海工厂推出了 Model 3 以及在 Fremont 推出 Model Y，两者都不到⼀年的时间上得到了证明。

With respect to capacity expansion, we've greatly learned from the development and launch of Model 3 in Fremont and Reno. As a result, we've been able to bring new production capacity on board faster and with less cost. This is evidenced by the launch of Model 3 in Shanghai, as well as Model Y in Fremont, programs that were both launched in under one year.

在财务上，我们已经展示了多个季度的强劲现⾦产⽣能⼒，实现了更⾼的交易量，资金使用效率的提⾼，营运资⾦管理的进步以及产品和运营成本的持续改善。基于这些原因，我们在2019Q3和Q4实现了GAAP准则下的正净利润，自由现金流创造能力强劲。

Financially, we have demonstrated multiple quarters of strong cash generation, enabled to higher volumes, improvements to capital efficiency, progress on working capital management and continued improvement in our product and operational costs. And we're able to achieve positive GAAP net income in both Q3 and Q4 for many of the same reasons that enabled strong cash generation.

通过实施⾼级连接和开始通过特斯拉移动应用程序进⾏购买的升级，我们在经常性和基于软件的收⼊⽅面也取得了进展。最后，基于股票的薪酬增加了 8200 万美元，这⼏乎完全由下⼀轮 CEO 津贴相关费用所驱动。这是由于我们改善了公司的预期财务业绩，⽽首席执⾏官的股票赠款也与之相关。

We've also made progress on recurring and software-based revenue with the implementation of premium connectivity and the beginning of upgrades available for purchase via the Tesla mobile app. Finally on stock-based compensation, it increased sequentially by $82 million, driven almost entirely by an expense related to the next tranche of the CEO grant. This is a result of our improved, expected financial performance of the company, which the CEO stock grant is tied to.

展望 2020 年，这对公司⽽⾔将是重要的⼀年。我们未来的任务是执⾏下⼀阶段的增长，同时管理现⾦流以支持该增长。对于 Model Y，我们预计本季度晚些时候将首次交付且数量有限，并在之后的季度逐渐增加。如前所述，我们预测Model Y相比Model 3毛利率更高。

As we look ahead to 2020, this again will be an important year for the company. Our task ahead is to execute on the next phase of growth, while managing cash flows to support that growth. On Model Y, we expect first deliveries and limited quantities later this quarter and will ramp over subsequent quarters. As mentioned previously, we are forecasting higher gross margins on Model Y compared to the Model 3.

今年，对于上海建造的 Model 3，我们希望达到预设的⽣产和交付速度。此外，我们预计将在上海⼯厂和该地区实现⼤部分供应链本土化。这是降低⽣产成本最重要的组成部分之⼀。我们还看到本地制造的 Model 3 订单量很⾼，并将继续专注于提⾼产量和控制成本。我们还预计上海和柏林建造的 Model Y 的⼯厂建设将取得重⼤进展，这将导致资本支出持续增长。

This year for the Shanghai built Model 3, we expect to achieve run rate production and delivery rates. In addition, we expect to have completed the majority of plant supply chain localization at the factory or in the region. This is one of the most important components to achieve lower production costs for the site. We are also seeing strong order rates for the locally built Model 3 and remain focused on continuing the production ramp and managing costs. We also anticipate significant progress on factory construction of the Shanghai and Berlin built Model Y, which will result in continued increases in capital spending.

关于运营费用，预计2020全年会增加，以支持我们不断增长的产品线和国际影响⼒。但是，OpEx的增长率应低于收⼊增长率。总体来说，我们相信这会使新的一年有更好的财务表现，有充足的现金流来支持与公司成长相关的投资决策，资产负债表更加出色。

On operating expenses, I expect an increase over the course of the year to support our growing product pipeline and international footprint. However, operating expense growth should increase at a lower rate than top line revenue. Overall, we believe this will set us up for a strongest annual financial performance yet, with sufficient forecasted cash flows to support investments related to our growth and further strengthening of our balance sheet.

对于第⼀季度，请记住，该⾏业总是受季节性因素的影响。此外，我们的两大主流车型（上海的Model 3 和 Fremont 的Model Y）产能正在不断爬坡，我预计这将暂时影响我们的利润率。

For Q1, please keep in mind that the industry is always impacted by seasonality. Additionally, we are in the process of ramping two major products Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, which I expect will temporarily weigh on our margins.

我们还处于了解冠状病毒是否暂时性会影响我们的早期阶段。目前，由于政府要求⼯厂停产，我们预计上海制造的 Model 3 产能爬坡会延迟 1 到 1.5 周。这可能会稍微影响该季度的盈利能⼒，但由于上海工厂 Model 3利润贡献仍处于早期阶段，影响有限。

We are also in the early stages of understanding if and to what extent we may be temporarily impacted by the Coronavirus. At this point, we're expecting a 1 to 1.5 week delay in the ramp of Shanghai built Model 3 due to a government required factory shutdown. This may slightly impact profitability for the quarter, but is limited as the profit contribution from Model 3 Shanghai remains in the early stages.

我们还将密切监视Fremont制造的汽车供应链是否会中断。到目前为⽌，我们还没有发现任何实质性内容，但请务必注意，这是⼀个不断发展的过程。但是，我们有⾜够的现⾦来继续我们的扩张计划，同时进⼀步加强资产负债表。

We are also closely monitoring whether there will be interruptions in the supply chain for cars built in Fremont. So far we're not aware of anything material, but it's important to caveat that this is an evolving story. However, we have more than sufficient cash to continue our expansion plans, while further strengthening the balance sheet.

投资者问答Q&A

Q1:由于加利福尼亚州所有新住宅建筑都需要太阳能，因此您是否可以从任何加利福尼亚⼤型住宅建筑商那里获得任何可索性的 Solarglass Roof 订单。加利福尼亚州太阳能屋顶的安装数量到 2020 年的目标是什么？

Since solar is required for all new home constructions in California, do you have any substantial orders for Solarglass Roofs from any of the large California homebuilders that you can share. What's the 2020 target for the number of Solarglass Roofs installations in California?

Elon Musk:我确实承认，从⼀个很小的基础上，我保证我们的 Solarglass Roof 的需求和产量将呈指数增长。因此，很难预测今年将是什么，除了需求非常强劲之外，我们不仅通过特斯拉太阳能，⽽且还通过新的房屋建筑商以及整个屋顶⾏业（⽆论是北美）来开展⼯作每年约有 400 万个新屋顶。

Well, I think we do -- we are seeing mostly from a small base, exponential growth in demand and output for our Solarglass Roof. So it's difficult to predict what that will be this year except that the demand is very strong and we are working also not just through Tesla Solar Roof, but also through new homebuilders and through just the roofing industry in general, whether is in North America on the order of 4 million new roofs per year.

因此，这只是完善安装过程的⼀个问题，需要培训许多⼈员进⾏安装。但是随着时间的流逝，我希望新屋顶中的很⼤⼀部分能够以某种形式使用太阳能玻璃。这真的将是您的选择，⽽且我认为⼈们会想要⼀个能产⽣能量的活动屋顶，它看起来不错，可以持续很长时间，这是我们想要的未来。因此，这将是⼀个重要的产品，但由于它是⼀个新产品，具有⾰命性的产品，并且有许多挑战需要克服，但这些挑战将克服，这将成为特斯拉的主要产品线。布法罗的⼯厂做得很好。

So, we see a lot of interest and so it's just a question of refining the installation process, getting lots of crews trained to do the installation. But over-time, I would expect a significant percentage of new roofs to be something to use solar glass in one form or another. It's really going to be your choice, do you want to roof that is alive with power or dead without. And I think people will want a live roof that generates power and it looks good and lasts long time and it's the future we want. So it will be a significant product but because it is a new one, quite revolutionary product and that there is a lot of challenges to overcome, but they will overcome and this will be a major product line of Tesla. And the Buffalo factory is doing great, so yeah.

Q2:来自我们股东的第二个问题是，您会在完全自动驾驶技术成熟和保险条款允许车主在网络上开车之前，发布特斯拉打车服务网络APP吗？如果是的话，什么时候会发生？可能会先把加州的机场作为目标吗，同时也是增加超级充电站布局的好地方。

Second question from retail shareholders is, will you release the Tesla ride-hailing network app before full autonomy and change the terms of Tesla Insurance to allow owners to be drivers on the network. If so when will this happen? Might want to target California airport first, also good place to add Superchargers.

Elon Musk:所以我认为这是可能的，我们希望在这种类型的自动驾驶出租车之前启用汽车共享，因为可以在监管机构批准完全自动驾驶之前完成汽车共享。因此，这可能是我们在启用某种类型的机器⼈出租车之前启用的。

Well, I think it's -- probably will make sense to have like to enable car sharing in advance of the kind of sort of drive robotaxi fleet because the car sharing can be done before Full Self-Driving is approved by regulators. So it's probably something that we would enable before sort of robotaxi fleet is enabled.

Q3:下一个问题是有多少加州的车主现在用的是特斯拉保险？2020年特斯拉保险的目标是多少？什么时候开始利用车队的数据来降低覆盖的成本？

The next question from retail investors is how many California owners are currently insured with Tesla Insurance? What's the target for Tesla Insurance in 2020? When will you start to significantly leverage the data you have from the fleet to lower the cost of your coverage?

Zachary Kirkhorn:是的，因此特斯拉保险目前在加利福尼亚州可用。我们在此⽅面正在做的⼏件事，首先是将其扩展到其他地区,我们正在准备监管流程，准备流程以通过这些地点的监管流程。我们还在制定程序，以继续调整我们在加利福尼亚州的费率，由于保险业受到严格监管，因此还必须通过监管程序。这就是我们现在花时间专注于 Tesla Insurance 的地⽅。正如我们之前在这个领域中讨论的那样，这里有⼤量创新，正是要解决问题的意图，这里是使用我们的技术来降低费率。随着时间的流逝，这将被推⼴。

So Tesla Insurance is currently available in California. A couple of things that we're working-on on this front, the first is to expand it to other locations and we are preparing the regulatory processes, preparing our processes to go through the regulatory processes in those locations. We're also working on the processes to continue to adjust our rates in California, which also have to go through regulatory processes as insurance is quite heavily regulated. And that's where we're spending our time focusing on Tesla Insurance right now. There is a significant amount of innovation as we've discussed before in this space, exactly getting to the intent of what the question here is, using our technology to reduce rates and this will be rolled in over-time.

Q4:对于使用自动巡航系统的特斯拉车主而言，特斯拉保险会有折扣吗？

Will there be a discount for using Autopilot with our cars?

Elon Musk:是的，但是我认为，高程度的自动巡航系统使用是有意义的，它减少了保险的成本和受伤的可能性。因此，我认为随着时间的推移，保险将成为特斯拉的主要产品。⼈们花在汽车保险上的钱占汽车成本的比例非常⾼，就像您现在可以每月以 400 美元的价格租用⼀辆 Model 3 ⼀样，但是在加利福尼亚，⼀个典型的车主将为此付出每月$ 100 到$ 200 的保险。

Right. But I think it would make sense for us to close-loop on higher use of Autopilot, it reduces the insurance costs as well as the probability of injury. So I think insurance is going to be I think quite a major product of Tesla over-time. The amount of money that people spend on car insurance is like a remarkably big percentage of the cost of a car, like you can lease a Model 3 right now for $400 a month, but a typical owner in California will be paying sort of between $100 and $200 a month in insurance.

因此，我们所谈论的是保险费用可能占汽车租赁成本的四分之⼀或⼆分之⼀。⽽且很多保险费用只是因为保险公司没有关于驾驶员的信息，也没有很好的⽅法可以在哪里提供反馈信息。关于保险费率与实际驾驶⽅式的反馈机制非常差，⽽我们可以实时进⾏。这是保险公司所没有的基本信息优势。

So we're talking about something which is maybe a quarter or two half of the cost of the lease of the car is insurance. And a lot of that insurance cost is just because the insurance companies don't have good information about the drivers and that there is no good way to provide feedback where it's a very poor feedback mechanism in terms of the insurance rates versus the actual way that the car is being driven, whereas we can do that in real time. It's a fundamental information advantage that insurance companies don't have.

Q5:下⼀个问题是，您期望在 2019 年底之前在 FSD 上具有完整的功能。能否请您提供有关我们何时会看到此功能的更新？但对于终端用户，您打算在哪里改装 FSD 计算机以使其适应较旧的型号？

The next question is, you set expectations that you would be feature-complete on FSD by the end of 2019. Can you please provide an update on when will we see this -- but with end users, where are you in retrofitting the FSD computer to older models?

Elon Musk:好吧，我的意思是，确切地说，我说我希望两个 FSD都能在去年年底完成。我们已经很接近了，看起来我们可能会在⼏个月后完成功能。完整的功能就意味着它有⼀定的机会可以从家中去上班。所以我认为现在看来可能要⼏个月了。

Well, I mean, to be precise, I said I was hoping it would be feature-complete with both FSD by the end of last year. We got pretty close. It's looking like we might be feature-complete in a few months. The feature-complete just means like it has some chance of going from your home to work let's say with no interventions. So, that's -- it doesn't mean the features are working well, but it means it has above zero chance. So I think that's looking like maybe it's going to be couple of months from now.

关于自动驾驶和完全自动驾驶，并不十分明显的事情是，团队在改善自动驾驶的基本要素上做了多少⼯作。我认为，就像 Tesla核心自动驾驶技术、Autopilot 、 AI团队，取得了非常巨⼤的进步。

And what isn't obvious regarding Autopilot and Full Self-Driving is just how much work has been going into improving the foundational elements of autonomy. The -- like the core autopilots in Tesla or Autopilot software and AI team is just is I think very, very strong in making great progress. And we're only beginning to take full advantage of the Autopilot hardware and the FSD hardware.

因此，我认为消费者所看到的进步似乎非常快，但实际上，我真正想起的事情是我们拥有非常强大的基础软件。然后根本的事情转向了视觉计算和学习。因此，就标签学习⽽⾔，在所有⼋个摄像机中同时对视频进⾏标签。这确实就像标签效率提⾼了三个数量级⼀样。对于了解这⼀点的⼈来说，这是极其基础的，因此在这⽅面确实取得了很⼤的进步。

So I think it's -- the apparent progress, as seen by consumers, will seem to be extremely rapid, but actually what's really going on my head it seems like that is just having the foundational software be very strong and we've got really strong foundation. And then a really fundamental thing is moving to video training. So in terms of labeling, labeling with video in all eight cameras simultaneously. This is a really, I mean in terms of labeling efficiency, arguably like a three order of magnitude improvement in labeling efficiency. For those who know about this, it's extremely fundamental, so that's really great progress on that.

Q6:既然大多散户投资者对特斯拉的见解比分析师要好，把个人很大一部分的财富放在特斯拉上，将更多的问题从我们之中选出不是更明智吗？您甚至还有必要回答分析师的问题吗？

Since most retail investors seem to understand Tesla better than analysts and are risking a larger part of their own personal wealth on Tesla. Doesn't it make sense to take mostly questions on these earnings calls from us via Say? Do you even have to take questions -- answer questions from analysts?

Elon Musk:好吧，我想，我们不必-我确实认为，许多散户投资者实际上比许多⼤型机构投资者拥有更深刻，更准确的见解，⽽对我⽽⾔，比许多分析师都具有更好的见解。他们可能会从这些预测中获得最⾼的准确性和非凡的洞察⼒。

Well, I guess, we don't have to -- I do think that a lot of retail investors actually have deeper and more accurate insights than many of the big institutional investors and certainly better insight than many of the analysts. It seems like if people really looked at some of the smart retail investor analysts and what some of the smart smaller retail investors predicted about the future of Tesla, you would probably get the highest accuracy and remarkable insight from some of those predictions.

Q7: 现在让我们转向机构股东问题。第⼀个问题是，您之前曾说过，上海每单位产能的资本支出要低 65％。从 OpEx 的角度来看，您是否学会做得更好或有所不同？如果是的话，我们期望对长期⽑利率产⽣什么样的影响？

Okay. So now let's switch to institutional shareholder questions. The number one question is, you have spoken previously about Shanghai Giga being 65% lower capex per unit of capacity. Have you learned to do anything better or different from an OpEx perspective? And if yes, what kind of impact might we expect on the long-term gross margin?

Zachary Kirkhorn:是。上海⼯厂在 Model 3的COGS所有项上都有相当出⾊的成本经验。我们已经谈论了很多关于 CapEx 容量较低的问题，但是我的意思是，您基本上可以在劳动⼒成本，因本地化⽽产⽣的材料成本之间列出COGS的整个清单，并开放那些从各州不具有经济意义的供应商。

Yeah. The Shanghai factory has been a quite remarkable cost experience across all line items of COGS for the Model 3 there. We have talked a lot about the capex that is capacity being lower, but I mean you can basically run down entire list of COGS between labor cost, material cost due to localization, opening up suppliers that would not have made economic sense from the states.

供应链本地化加上⼊库物流和出库物流成本，因此我们不会将汽车从加利福尼亚运送到中国。然后，可以相应地节省与进⼝相关的较低成本。股东函中有⼀张幻灯片，显示了我们在加利福尼亚的弗里蒙特⼯厂与中国的 Model 3 ⼯厂之间的布局比较，可以明显看出流程的简化，并通过布局的改变来节省设施运营费用。

Localizing the supply chain flows into inbound logistics and outbound logistics costs as well, so we're not shipping cars from California over to China. And then that has a corresponding savings on our lower import related costs. And there is a slide in the shareholder letter that shows the layout comparison between our Fremont facility here in California and also the Model 3 factory in China and the simplification in terms of the flow is pretty evident from that layout and that cascades itself into all sorts of savings for the operations of the facility.

因此，如果将所有这些费用加起来，我们的内部估算值将使中国的 Model 3 成本相对于Fremont ⼤⼤降低，但我认为，牢记标准续航升级版的成本也很重要，从上海销售的车辆成本要低于从弗里蒙特工厂销售的同类汽车。我在之前的财报电话会议上已说过这⼀点，我认为可以预料，上海⼯厂的利润率将与Fremont工厂的利润率相同。

And so if you add all of this up, our internal estimates are a pretty significant reduction in the cost of Model 3 in China relative to Fremont, but I think it's also important to keep in mind that the cost of the Standard Plus that we're selling out of Shanghai is also lower than that of the similar car coming out of Fremont from price perspective. And so and I've said this on previous earnings calls, I think it's fair to expect the margin coming out of the Shanghai facility to match the same margin for the vehicle in Fremont.

Elon Musk:是的，⾄少在客户所在的⼤陆上，特斯拉仅通过制造汽车，特别是负担得起的汽车Model 3 和 Y，就可以在很⼤程度上提⾼基本效率。这是有道理的-但我们要做的事情会发⽣，过去在加利福尼亚制造汽车，然后将其运送到世界各地的亚洲和欧洲真的很愚蠢。

Yeah. I feel there is a pretty big fundamental efficiency gain that Tesla has by just making cars, especially affordable cars than 3 and Y, at least on the continent where the customers are. It kind of makes sense. But what we're doing -- or have been doing in the past was really pretty silly in making cars in California and then shipping them halfway around the world to Asia and Europe.

这造成了很多成本，因为你必须运送这些汽车，所以它们有很多制成品，坐在订单上或在港⼝等待，或者通过海关，就有了关税和运输。加州⼯厂的复杂性很⾼，因为对中国，北美和欧洲有不同的法规要求。

And this created a lot of cost, because you got to ship those cars, so they got lot of finished goods, sitting on the order or waiting at the port or going through customs, you got tariffs, transport. And then the factory complexity in California is very high, because you've got different regulatory requirements in China, North America and Europe.

因此，我们⽣产了三种不同类型的汽车，这非常复杂，仅在中国有⼀家⼯厂，在加利福尼亚有⼀家⼯厂，在欧洲有⼀家北美⼯厂。好吧，仅此⼀项就可以极⼤地提⾼我们的运营效率。现在，我认为这可能不完全被理解。

So we got three different types of cars that are being built, it's very complex and just having a factory in China or a factory in California or a factory in North America and a factory in Europe will -- just that alone is a massive improvement in our fundamental operating efficiency. That I think this may not be fully appreciated.

Q8:机构投资者的下⼀个问题是近期的股价⾛势，为什么不立即筹集资⾦并显著加快产量的增长，即建立超级⼯厂，对超级充电站和客户服务进⾏投资。

The next question from institutional investors is, given the recent run in the share price, why not raise capital now and substantially accelerate the growth in production, i.e., build the Gigafactories, investment in Supercharger and customer service?

Elon Musk:好吧，我们实际上正在尽可能合理地花钱。因此，如果有任何明智的消费⽅式，我们就会花钱。我看不出任何⼈为地抑制支出的现象。如果有任何创造明显价值的地方需要资金投入，答案是立即。但我认为我们在高效地花钱，没有人为地限制进度。尽管有这些，我们仍在产⽣正现⾦流量。因此，筹集资⾦没有任何意义，因为即使投资在增长，我们预计仍会产⽣足够的现⾦流。

Well, we're actually spending money as quickly as we can spend it sensibly. So if there's any sensible way to spend money, we're spending it. There is no artificial hold back on expenditures. Anything that I see that is what looks like it's got good value for money, the answer is yes immediately. But we're spending money I think efficiently and we're not artificially limiting our progress. And then despite all that we are still generating positive cash. So in light of that, it doesn't make sense to raise money because we expect to generate cash despite this growth level.

Zachary Kirkhorn:是的，我完全同意。我认为我们在 Model 3 推出期间的⼀些学习经历使我们成长太快且过于复杂。它阻碍了我们继续扩展的能⼒，⽽我们在 2019 年⼀直在进⾏旅程的⼀部分，凸显了⼀系列⽆意的过程，即该过程是随着时间的推移在公司中积累的。

Yeah, I completely agree with that. I think some of our learnings during the Model 3 launch period where we grew too quickly and with too much complexity and it held back our ability to continue to scale and part of the journey that we've been on in 2019 is to underline a series of unintentional bad processes that kind of accumulated in the company over-time.

因此，随着我们变得更加精明，这就是导致⼀年中运营支出减少的原因。现在，我们已经奠定了良好的基础，我认为并且我也同意您的看法，即我们没有阻碍增长。我的意思是我们有两种产品，两种汽车产品目前正在投放市场，这将消耗公司的⼤部分资⾦，以在⼀年中稳定这些产品。然后展望明年，我们将推出更多产品和更多工厂。因此，我们在如何以可持续的⽅式花钱和增长上需要保持睿智。因此，我们不会成为一年半前犯的错误的受害者。

And so that's kind of what contributes to the reduction in OpEx over the year as we get smarter about that. And now we've laid a good foundation and I think and I agree with you on that we're not holding back on the growth. I mean we have two products, two vehicle products launching right now and that will consume much of the bandwidth of the company to stabilize those over the course of the year. And then looking into next year, we have even more products launching, more factories. So we want to be smart about how we spend money and grow in a way that's sustainable. So we don't fall victim to the mistakes I think we made a year and a half or so ago.

Q9:我们能否从增长与⽑利润的增长⽅面谈谈成本控制和运营支出的可持续性。我们如何实现最新的 OpEx 趋势？随着车辆和地域覆盖面的增加，应如何考虑 OpEx 的需求？

The following question would be, can we please talk about cost control and OpEx sustainability in terms of growth versus gross profit growth. How did we achieve the recent OpEx trends and how should we think about OpEx needs as we grow both vehicles and geographic workloads?

Zachary Kirkhorn:从第三季度到第四季度，我们确实看到了运营费用的增加，甚⾄不包括基于股票薪酬的部分。它将支持 Model Y 计划以及上海计划。因此，我认为作为⼀家公司，我们取消了许多不正确的流程，包括使事情自动化需要自动化。我们将继续这⼀过程。但是我认为我们现在正处于⼀个阶段， OpEx ⾄少会开始增长以支持我们的全球扩张及公司的发展。我们的目标在于使营业费用(OpEx)的增长远低于营收的增长，以改善经营杠杆，这是我们非常关注的一点。

We did see an increase in operating expenses from Q3 to Q4, even excluding the portion of that attributed to stock-based compensation. And when you double click into that growth, it's supporting the Model Y program and also Shanghai program as well. And so I think we as a company are now at the point where we've learned a lot on cost efficiency as I've just mentioned and we've unwound a number of the processes that were not in the right place including automating the things that need to be automated. And we'll continue on that journey. But I think we're at a point now where OpEx will start to tick up at least if you look annually from 2019 to 2020 to support our international footprint and then the growth of the Company. It -- our job is to grow that significantly slower than the pace of growth of revenue to improve the operating leverage, which we're very, very focused on.

Q10: 机构投资者的最后⼀个问题是，Model S 和 Model X 的销量已经持平了⼏个季度，主要原因是他们仍然使用 18650 电池。自此以后，S＆X 将使用 2170 电池，其制造能⼒为 18650，可用于电池存储系统。

And the last question from investors is the sales of Model S and X have stayed flat for several quarters, the main reason is that they still use 18650 batteries. When will S and X use 2170 batteries? Manufacturing capacity of 18650 may be used for battery storage systems instead.

Elon Musk:好吧，实际上，多年来，18650 电池内部的核⼼化学性质已多次改进。因此，与核⼼技术相比，它实际上是外形尺⼨。所以，我认为我们对这两种车辆的能量含量，售后以及效率的提⾼感到非常满意。例如， Model S 续航能力正在迅速接近 400 英里，实现该目标就在不久之后。

Sure. Well, actually the core chemistry inside the 18650 cell has improved many times over the years. So, it's really just a form factor as opposed to a core technology. So it's -- yes, I think we're pretty happy with where the -- with the energy content of the cell and the improvements in efficiency of the vehicle. The -- we're rapidly approaching a 400 mile range for Model S, for example. So, this is -- it won't be long before Model S is 400 -- has 400 mile range.

注：文中报告节选自天风证券研究所已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详见完整版报告。

证券研究报告：《特斯拉：Model 3产销两旺助力千亿市值，零部件国产替代机遇》

对外发布时间：2019年2月3日

报告发布机构：天风证券股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格）

本报告分析师：

邓学，SAC执业证书编号：S1110518010001

邓学

天风证券研究所副所长，汽车行业首席分析师，清华大学汽车系学士、硕士。2014-2017年带队获新财富“最佳分析师”第4名、第1名、第2名、第2名。十年汽车研究经验，中美能源合作实验室成员，中国氢能学者。

娄周鑫 · 173-2113-8343

天风证券汽车行业分析师，约翰霍普金斯大学金融学硕士，主要覆盖汽车零部件、乘用车。

文康 · 188-0197-0629

天风证券汽车行业分析师，上海交通大学机械工程学士，动力工程硕士，主要覆盖商用车、乘用车。