美元末日来临？后美国时代悄然而至

　　来源：人民币交易与研究

　　荷兰ECR Research的研究员Andy Langenkamp通过金融博客The Hill发文称，由于结构性、周期性障碍以及政治等各方面的原因，美元的全球霸主地位正越来越受到人们的质疑，各国也在试图减少对美元和美国整体的依赖。但Langenkamp认为，美元作为全球货币的地位不会很快被取代。他还指出，各国为减少对美元的依赖而采取的尝试性措施表明，它们预计一个后美国时代正在形成。由于美国被视为一个越来越反复无常的对手和不可预测的盟友，这种趋势必然会加强。

　　图片 | Pixabay

　　当前的不确定性和担忧在金融市场上显露无疑。投资者纷纷涌向黄金、美国国债和美元等被认为安全的资产。他们仍然大规模地涌向美国，而目前的许多不安全因素直接来自白宫。与此同时，我们看到越来越多的评论围绕着这样一个问题：我们是否正在缓慢但肯定地从美元转向其它货币？

　　Current uncertainty and worries are clearly reflected in the financial markets． Investors are fleeing into assets that are deemed safe such as gold， U.S． Treasuries and the dollar． They still flock to the U.S． on a massive scale whereas a lot of the current insecurity derives directly from the White House． At the same time， we are seeing more and more commentaries around the question whether a shift is taking place， slowly but surely， from the dollar toward other currencies．

　　摩根大通最近写道：“我们认为，由于结构性原因和周期性障碍，美元可能会失去其作为全球主导货币的地位（中期可能会出现贬值）。”

　　JP Morgan recently wrote， “We believe the dollar could lose its status as the world’s dominant currency （which could see it depreciate over the medium term） due to structural reasons as well as cyclical impediments．”

　　本月，英国央行行长卡尼声称，美元霸主地位正使全球经济面临越来越大的压力，认为需要结束其霸主地位。

　　And this month， Bank of England Governor Mark Carney claimed that the dollar’s status as a hegemon is putting the global economy under increasing strain and needs to end． 

　　在目前这个当口，美元的主导地位受到质疑并不令人意外：

　　That the dominance of the dollar is being questioned is not surprising at the present juncture：

　　美国当前和未来的政策看起来模糊不清或者根本没有。无论是盟友还是敌人，都感到失控，因为他们必须等待，看看美国总统的推特上正在酝酿着什么将要爆发的风暴。

　　Current and future U.S． policies look vague or non-existent． Allies as well as enemies feel out of control as they have to wait and see what storms are brewing in the U.S． president‘s Twitter feed， about to be unleashed．

　　俄罗斯等国正采取越来越强硬的立场。

　　Countries such as Russia are taking an increasingly assertive stance．

　　美国的相对优势正在减弱，越来越多的人怀疑，美国是否会继续支持和支撑其在很大程度上建立并塑造的国际体系。

　　The relative supremacy of the U.S． has been waning and there are mounting doubts whether the country will continue to support and shore up the international system that it has largely build up and shaped itself．

　　从某种意义上说，美国的实力可能正在减弱，但它的触角已经伸向了遍布全世界的各个国家和项目。

　　The power of the United States may be lessening in a relative sense but the country has its tentacles in projects and countries virtually all over the world．

　　由于美国金融机构、当局和美元在SWIFT（国际支付系统）中的作用，非美国企业担心自己会招致数十亿美元的罚款。他们担心，一旦有哪怕一丁点证据能将他们与一个受到华盛顿制裁的国家或公司联系起来，这种情况就会发生。因此，许多国家都在寻找减少对美元和美国整体依赖的方法。

　　Owing to the role of U.S． financial institutions， authorities and the dollar in SWIFT （the international payment system） non-U.S． businesses are terrified that they will incur billions of dollars in fines． They worry that this will happen as soon as there is even a tiny shred of evidence that can connect them to a country or corporation hit by sanctions from Washington． Therefore， many states are looking for ways to become less reliant on the dollar and the U.S． in general．

　　美国真正开始走向霸权是在二战结束前，二战后，当时同盟国建立了布雷顿森林体系。随后，美国成功地进一步积聚了金融、经济、政治和军事力量，使其能够在世界上留下结构性和广泛的印记。

　　America really started to move toward hegemony just before the end and after World War II when the Allied nations set up Bretton Woods system． Subsequently， the U.S． managed to further amass the financial-economic， political， and military power that allows it to leave a structural and sweeping mark on the world． 

　　与此同时，美国人也被指责专横。早在上世纪60年代，时任法国总统Charles de Gaulle就愤怒地表示，美元作为全球储备货币，对美国人来说是一种过分的特权。不时有人试图削弱美元的主导地位，但是大部分都不太成功。

　　At the same time， Americans have been criticized for being overbearing． As early as the 1960s， the then French president de Gaulle irritably said it was an exorbitant privilege for the Americans that the dollar was the global reserve currency． Attempts have been made from time to time to weaken the dominance of the dollar； mostly without much success．

　　然而，情况正在发生变化，而这似乎表明各国希望减少对美元的依赖。2011年，中国持有美国政府债券的比例为14%，而现在这一比例已降至7%。从更广泛的角度来看，其它央行的美元储备显然已开始发挥不那么突出的作用。

　　Nevertheless， things are shifting in a way that seems to suggest that countries want to become less dependent on the dollar． Whereas China owned 14 percent of U.S． government paper in 2011 that percentage has dropped to seven by now． Viewed from a broader perspective， it is clear that the dollar reserves at other central banks have started to play a slightly less prominent role． 

　　大约在2000年左右，各国央行的外汇储备中有70%是美元，而目前这一比例是60%。我们还看到一些国家采取政治行动，试图摆脱美国金融体系和美元的控制。

　　Some 70 percent of the currency reserves of central banks consisted of dollars around the year 2000 whereas this share is currently 60 percent． We are also seeing political initiatives by countries trying to keep away from the clutches of the U.S． financial system and the dollar． 

　　在各方试图绕过美国制裁体制之际，欧洲希望继续通过所谓的“贸易往来支持工具”（INSTEX）与伊朗进行贸易。而且有越来越多的举措旨在确保各国可以用本国货币而不是美元进行贸易。比如在中俄能源贸易的背景下。

　　Europe wants to continue to trade with Iran via the so-called INSTEX instrument as parties try to bypass the U.S． sanction regime． And there are more and more initiatives that are intended to ensure that countries can trade in their domestic currencies instead of using the dollar． For instance in the context of energy trading between China and Russia．

　　然而，尤其是石油和其他能源的买卖表明，美国的霸权仍然是那么的“顽固”。全球80%的石油交易是以美元支付的。还有其他一些发人深省的数据：

　　1． 在所有的货币交易中，80%-90%的交易对手都使用美元。

　　2． 美元占全球外汇储备的62%，而欧元仅以20%的比例位居第二。

　　3． 60%的国际未偿债务是以美元计价的。

　　However， specifically the buying and selling of oil and other energy sources shows how “sticky” the U.S． hegemony still is． Eighty percent of global oil trades is paid in dollars． And there are other sobering data：

　　1． The dollar is used by counter parties in 80 to 90 percent of all currency transactions．

　　2． The dollar comprises 62 percent of the global currency reserves whereas the euro is in second places with a meagre 20 percent．

　　3． Sixty percent of international outstanding debt is priced in dollars．

　　另一个具体的例子是，巴西和印度80%的进口商品是以美元支付的，而只有一小部分的进口商品来自美国。

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