全文|美国GAMCO创始人Mario：观察超额收益是有效的分析方式_新浪财经

　　今日，2022新浪财经养老与基金研讨会于线上隆重召开。

　　近日，国务院办公厅印发《关于推动个人养老金发展的意见》，标志着“个人养老金”新时代即将开启。而养老投资一直是大众关心的话题，随着我国人口老龄化加速到来，发展第三支柱已经十分迫切。广大民众尚未形成长期、持续且系统地进行养老储备的意识。养老保障产品供给层面，我们也亟需更加多元化、符合个性化需求的养老产品。

　　公募基金如何助力个人养老金“落地开花”？新浪财经针对此议题举办了2022养老与基金研讨会（线上）。美国GAMCO投资公司创始人Mario Gabelli就投资策略发表了主题演讲。

　　Mario表示，最有效的分析方式为，在一个行业中做研究，关注资本化的所有方面。目前华尔街的结构已经改变，部分是因为政治家斯皮策的原因，现在分析师不能也不会追踪小盘股和微型股。因此，需要增加观察超额收益的流程，去看行业中的所有股票，了解行业的基本面，然后关注那些被忽视了的和不被看好的公司。

　　以下为演讲全文：

　　发言人：美国GAMCO投资公司创始人

　　Mario Gabelli

　　很高兴参加本次论坛，我是马里奥。在投资行业，你不仅要懂理论，能按照行业标准去理解和分析市场，比如收集数据，评级，预测，解释等等，

　　Well， again， as because in the investment business， not only can you be theoretical and have a great ability to understand how to do analysis and how to do it in line with our industry standards， that is gather data， rate it and project it and then interpret it，

　　同时，你要懂得怎么赚钱。即使我们公司非常聪明，我们雇佣的分析师非常聪明，他们无论贫富，都永不松懈，拥有超强驱动力。聪明、饥渴和驱动力就是投资世界的博士。

　　you have to also understand how do you make money． Because as smart as our firm is， and as smart as the analysts we hire and they‘re， you know， poor， hungry and driven or privileged， hungry and driven the PhDs of the investment world．

　　如果我们无法给出好的投资成绩，客户还是会解雇你。因此，在35年前，40年前，我们就定下了我们要为把资产交给我们管理的客户赚多少钱。

　　The problem is that if you don‘t show good results， the clients fire you． So as a result of that， we said okay， look， and again， this is 35-40 years ago， we said what do we want to earn， in terms of the clients that we manage money for，

　　对于应税客户，当时的长期资本利得税率大概在25%左右，而通胀率在两位数左右，我记得可能是8%-10%。所以我当时定的是，在计税和算入通胀后，我们要实打实地赚10%。

　　For taxable clients at the time， I believed long-term capital gain rate was probably 25%， inflation was probably in double digits， say that was probably eight to 10%． And I said look， we want to earn 10% real， after tax， after inflation．

　　因此我们的目标是，找到能在两年内能为我们赚得这么多利润的公司。如果低于两年，首先我们就无法获得资本收益，其次找到这样一家公司并帮客户投资的时间就会显得太长。

　　So our goal would be to buy companies that would generate that in a two year time period． If it was less than that， we wouldn‘t get capital gains， and secondly， it takes too long to develop an idea and to invest it for clients．

　　而时间超过两年太多的话，这世界变化太快了。当时正是七十年代，我们正从越南撤出，柏林墙还没有倒塌，当时有卡特总统，里根总统，局势复杂，正如任何时候一样，当然现在也一样。

　　Longer than that， the world changes too rapidly． Again， that was the 70s． We‘re just getting out of Vietnam． We’re still in the Berlin Wall． We had President Carter coming in， Ronald Reagan， a whole mishmash of dynamics， no different than any time including now．

　　因此，我们需要一个我们称之为催化因素的东西，它能够缩小股票的市值与其被低估的实际价值之间的差距。

　　And as a result of that， we said I need something that I can identify that would allow the spread to take place between where the stock is selling for in the public markets and what it was worth， that was what we call the catalyst．

　　催化因素可能以多种形式存在。可能是一个实业家购买这家公司5%的股份，这个时候所有人都会开始关注这个公司，思考为什么他们会买它。也可能是公司的一个部门分拆了。

　　A catalyst could take many forms． It could be an industrialist buying 5% of a company． And all of a sudden we‘re saying why are they doing it？ It could be a spin off of a division．

　　也可能是一个全球性事件。比如在2011年我们去看2012年，或者在2012年我们去看2013年，我们会思考，如果税率变化了呢？

　　It could be a global thing， for example， in 2011， where we are now， looking into 12， and 12 looking at the 13， you can say okay， what happens if taxes change？

　　如果奥巴马赢得选举，如果美国两院，民主党将长期资本利得税率从15%提高到43.5%，如果我拥有这家企业，我会尝试加速售出股票吗？这是不是一个催化因素？

　　What if Obama wins， the House， the Senate， the Democrats having taxes go to 43.5% on long term capital gains up from 15%， if I own the business， will I try to accelerate the sale of that？ Is that a catalyst？

　　What happens if in fact， spin-offs are endemic as they are now？ How does Irene Rosenfeld that Kraft spin off something that she send a sweet and savory business， package it up in Mondelez？ Does that work？

　　美国有线电视公司（Cablevision）怎么就想要剥离麦迪逊花园网络和AMC网络呢？它们都是很好的资产，公司并不想卖出。富俊品牌剥离了它的酒类业务，成为现在的Beam公司，它还剩下家居硬件业务，这些业务价值多少？

　　How did Cablevision spin off Madison Square Garden and AMC network， which are a keeper which they don‘t want to sell？ Fortune Brands spinning off their booze business， now called Beam and there are home and hardware business and what are they worth？

　　所以催化因素可以有各种形式。有些时候，我们跟着约翰·马龙（美国传媒巨头、著名投资人），他如何去设计他的产品？有时候我们跟着卡尔·伊坎（美国知名对冲基金经理）这样的人。有些时候我们跟着赚钱的人，比如进行关系投资的投资者。为什么他们选择购买这家公司？买了多少？他们的投资命中率是多少？

　　So catalysts take many forms． Sometimes we follow John Malone， how does he engineer what he‘s doing？ Sometimes we follow individuals like Carl Icahn． Sometimes we follow moneymakers， like the guys in relationship investing． Why are they buying this company？ How many？ What’s their batting average？

　　这就是催化因素。我们必须有催化因素的原因是，我们的客户并不是终身制的。选择引入催化因素是我们在上世纪七十年代末做出的一个非常实际的选择。

　　So that‘s the catalyst and the reason for it is， we don’t have tenure for clients． It‘s a very practical dynamic that we introduced back in the late 70s．

　　哥伦比亚大学的教授们认为，这是我们在格雷厄姆-多德模式下的创新，即私有市场价值催化因素理论。我们在选股之外，完善了如何能在这个过程中得到财务回报的理论。

　　And the professors at Columbia said that‘s the advancement we made in the Graham Dodd Marie and now Graham Dodd methodology， Private Market Value with a Catalyst to the that fundamental approach to not only stock selection， but also making a return on that process．

　　1999年，价值投资者实际上被人们视为一种已经绝种了的生物。为什么？因为在那个时候，TMT行业流行的是点击有多少，估值就有多高。

　　At a practical way， in 1999， value investors were not looked on as anything but an extinct species． Why？ Because at the time， TMT was how many hits do you get， how big is the valuation．

　　我们看到各种像思科这样的公司被列入标普指数，它们当时以前所未有的增长速度，以五倍于市场估值的水平进行着交易。

　　and we were sitting there watching the Cisco of the world included in an S&P index， where they were trading at five market caps that required a certain growth rate that we hadn‘t seen．

　　很幸运，我经历过1971-1973年，当时有一个说法叫“漂亮50股票组合”，你买入这些成长股，永远持有就可以。其中包括雅芳、宝丽来、施乐等。你现在回顾一下，会发现这些公司多么快就相继消亡了，因为它们的估值倍数太高了。

　　I fortunately， was also around in 1971， 72 or 73， when you had the nifty 50， buy a growth stock， hold it forever． And those were names like Avon and Polaroid and Xerox and so on， and you go back and look at you know how quickly they died off from it， because the multiples got too high．

　　在经历这样的辉煌时期时，在人们极度乐观时，是不追求价值投资的。价值投资的另一个问题是，不管统计学上来讲苹果这样的股票多便宜，

　　So what happens is when you have a period have a brilliance， you know， when people extremely optimistic， value investing is not highly sought after． The other problem we have in value investing is that we tend not to buy the Apples of the world， no matter how statistically cheap they are，

　　我们都倾向于不去购买这样的当时市值六千亿美金的公司。在这样大的量级下，怎样的催化因素才能起作用？我们无法将其私有化，私募基金也不能像2007年那样去运作集体交易。

　　when you have a market cap of $600 billion dollars． You know， what kind of financial catalyst would work， we cannot take it private， Okay？ Private equity is not going to do that as much as they can do group deals as they did in 07．

　　所以，有一些股票类型就是不能使用这种价值分析手法，虽然单独看报价，价值投资者或者叫自己其他头衔的价值投资者都可以说，苹果公司是一个合适的价值投资标的。

　　So， certain types of stocks don‘t lend themselves to this valuation， even though in quotes， value investors， you know， wearing many hats or however they want to， you know， come out and drag， they basically can look at it and say， okay， Apple fits in．

　　市盈率十倍，有巨大的现金流，产品里有微处理器，我很喜欢这个产品。但是对我们来说这只股票还是一个挑战。我们的分析方式实际上最有效的地方是，在一个行业中做研究，但要关注资本化的所有方面。

　　It‘s 10 times earnings， it got huge cash flow， it’s got an embedded processor， and I love the product， but it is a challenge for us． So where we are actually most effective is doing research in an industry but looking at all sides of capitalizations，

　　因为现在华尔街的结构已经改变了，部分是因为政治家斯皮策的原因，现在分析师不能也不会追踪小盘股和微型股。

　　because the structure of Wall Street has changed in part accelerated by Spitzer， where the analyst can‘t follow and don’t follow micro cap and small cap stocks．

　　因此，我们增加了观察超额收益的流程，去看行业中的所有股票，了解行业的基本面，然后关注那些肯定被忽视了的和不被看好的公司。

　　So the alpha in quotes that we add to the process the value added is looking at all caps in industry， understanding industry fundamentals and then focusing on the ones that are certainly ignored and unloved．

　　我们大概持有了考勒斯通信公司八年，这是一个非常成功的案例。当然很多年前它就被私有化了。还有LIN广播公司，我们持有了在很长一段时间，可能赚了不到30到40倍的收益，但肯定赚了不少。实际上长期收益超过了这个数字，多种算法都是如此。

　　We probably owned Cowles Communications for eight years． And that was an outstanding success． Obviously it was taken over years ago． Lin Broadcasting we probably made not 30 or 40 times your money but significant， actually more than that over a long period of time and has various incarnations．

　　我们开始持有大约在1970年，可能在2001左右停止持有了。后来它上市了，麦考蜂窝通信公司买了一部分股权。

　　This started somewhere around 1970， probably ended for us somewhere around 2001． And it went public， McCaw bought pieces．

　　我们还有非常多的成功案例，但是就像棒球运动员泰德·威廉斯一样，你知道虽然我们已经很成功了，可能处于行业的前1%了，我们还是会犯很多错误。

　　We‘ve had so many successes and like Ted Williams， however， you know as successful as we are， and we’re probably in a 1% of the category that we compete against． We‘ve had a lot of errors．

　　泰德的打击量达到了400。这意味着每五次他能击中三次。我们和他一样也会犯错误。比如，我持有的一家公司，一共持有了三十年，最后得到的价格和我当初付出去的没有区别。

　　Ted batted 400． It means he made out three out of five times， so we will make mistakes． For example， I owned -- probably for 30 years． And I got the same amount of money I paid for it 30 years later．

　　我们其实拥有这家公司的35%，但是我们没有推动这家公司达到目标线。我们本可以在任何时候做到的。我们买入一家公司的大量股票时，我们的哲学是一贯的：喜欢这家公司，你愿意买它，为什么不拥有整个公司呢？

　　That and we owned about 35% of the company， we did not push them over the goal line． We could have done that at any time． So we own significant pieces of company consistent with a philosophy， like it and you are willing to buy it why not own the entire company？

　　你怎么去分析未来十年的发展呢？要看人口结构的变化。人口结构正在变老。他们需要人工的身体部件，比如膝盖、髋关节、视力辅助、听力辅助，当你变老时需要更多的牙齿护理，但牙医的数量没有增长。

　　How do you analyze the world for the next 10 years？ Look at demographic changes， population is getting older， they need body parts， knees， hips， eyes， hearing aids， more denture per person as you get older， no growth in dentists．

　　我们是不是这个时候就能够参与了呢，通过投资经销商、新产品、新技术？或者是很简单的东西，介入无麸质产品，健康有机的食物？你可以看看全食公司的增长。有机自然食品行业赛道有多大？3500亿美金。增长率是多少？行业在关注哪些东西？

　　Is there a way to participate in that through distributors， through new products， to new technology？ Or simple thing， like gluten-free， health organic foods， watch the growth of Whole Foods． How big is that， organic， natural food industry？ $350 billion． What‘s the growth rate？ What’s it been looking at？

　　再举一个简单的例子。我从来不自己煮咖啡，因为每次做需要做一壶，一大半会剩下。科技进步后，我们现在有了单杯咖啡的技术，我们有了Keurig咖啡机。

　　Another example is simple． I never made coffee because I‘d have to take a pot． I’d have to leave half over． Technology， a single serve coffee． We just had Keurig coffee．

　　放进去一个胶囊，按一个按钮，就可以喝了。咖啡行业是一个600亿美金的行业，增长非常缓慢。柏林墙倒塌后，一些新兴市场开始喝更多的咖啡，才有一些增长。

　　You stick it in a pod you hit a button and it works． The coffee industry is $60 billion globally． It was very low growth． Berlin wall comes down， some of the emerging countries drink more， the world standards increase，

　　但是突然之间，单杯咖啡的咖啡机市场增长到了10亿美金，每年增长25%。所以我们现在会去看皮爷咖啡（Peet‘s coffee），或者看莎莉公司所独立出来的公司，叫帝怡的企业，现在它可能拥有这个品牌98%的权益。

　　but then all of a sudden single serve went from like a billion dollars． It‘s been growing at 25% a year． So we looked at things like Peet’s coffee． Why we looked at a spin-off from Sara Lee？ It‘s now called the D.E Master Blenders 1787， and that’s probably 98% right of the name．

　　所以，我们在看以上这些领域，我们会坐下来分析，希望它会有一个市场突破，我们在某一个价格能够买下这只股票。

　　And so we‘re looking at sectors like that and then we sit down and start analyzing and we hope there’s a market break， we buy the stock at a price．

　　投资者们想问我去哪里寻找投资？我答案是，每天早上看看咖啡杯下面的东西，观察然后去思考什么能成功。谢谢大家！

　　Where would I tell investors to look？ Right under their coffee cup in the morning， and look and say， you know， what works？