王文：中国不会眼睁睁地看着全球化死去

　　意见领袖丨王文（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长）

　　北京再次发现新冠本土病例的周末，我正好应邀参加在河南省会郑州举行的“空中丝绸之路”（Air Silk Road）座谈会。说实话，当时的心情是战战兢兢，一直戴着口罩，不与任何人握手，发完言后立刻离开会场。四个月的抗疫经历，让我变得自觉，生怕从北京来的自己成了新的传染源。

　　相比之下，从北京去的几位欧洲国家驻华大使看上去却很轻松。他们对中国疫情很放心，也高度赞赏从郑州飞欧洲“空中丝绸之路”的不错进展，更看好后疫情时代的中国以及河南的发展前景。卢森堡首相贝泰尔还专门发来视频赞许河南的全球贡献。会上，河南省长尹弘雄心勃勃，希望在借“空中丝绸之路”几年来的成功经验推动河南更高水平的对外开放。

　　2020年初夏的地球，恐怕很难想象在其他国家的哪个城市，会有这样高规格的推动本地城市融入全球化的会议。在西方媒体里，到处都叫嚷着“全球化已死”、“本国第一”，推动全球化有时竟变得有一些非主流。

　　从这个角度看，这个座谈会像是来自中国的一剂苏醒针，打在已休克两个多月的全球化身上，希望治愈病得不轻、因疫情病情加重的全球化。

　　数据证明了中国的确是全球化稳定的正能量。根据世界贸易组织的报告预估，新冠肺炎疫情将使2020年全球贸易缩水13%至32%。这个缩水主要来自美国。作为全球第二大贸易国、第一经济体，2020年美国对外贸易总额逐月下降，4月比1月下降了22%。而作为全球第一贸易大国的中国，在2月触底后呈反弹之势，5月份已大体接近于疫情前的正常值，成为全球贸易的压舱石。

　　换句话说，美国的萎靡让世界贸易变得越来糟糕，而中国的复苏努力让世界贸易止损。观察国际投资、并购、物流、信息、货币等全球流动的基本变量，同样呈现出了中国兴、美国衰的消长趋势。如果再增加特朗普政府不断“退群”的变量，全球化正在越来越表现出“去美国化”、“趋中国化”的全新迹象。

　　全球化肯定不会死。人类文明进程本身就是伴随全球化交流的进程。16世纪前，早期全球化是零散的、缺乏系统的，以香料丝绸为主的东西方文明交流。此后，以欧洲列强的殖民扩张为主要动力，全球化呈现出技术普及、人口流动、文明融合的初期迹象。而20世纪以后，美国的贡献则依赖于信息产业革命，让世界互动呈现前所未有的频繁盛况。

　　可惜的是，美国领衔的全球化并没有带来共赢的结果。二战以后，新独立的100多个亚非拉国家绝大多数至今仍是低收入国家，仅有中国、韩国等少数几个国家从低收入陷阱中爬出。糟糕的是，一些富国甚至还面临着跌入陷阱的窘境。这些都成了反全球化者、保护主义者的重要借口。

　　中国吸取了全球化的消极教训，很早就主张全球化应是共赢的、包容的、平等的、安全的、互联互通的，这与单赢的、封闭的、非对称的、暴力的、中心边缘式的美式全球化大相径庭。

　　在后疫情时代，中国想让全球化焕发生机，并不容易。除了必须获得世界的信任之外，中国还必须抑制病毒在国内大规模复发的可能性，并通过国内复苏刺激下一轮的全球化。当务之急是，中国既要更精准地减少人员感染与死亡，还要出台足够有效的政策、创造足够多的就业、纾困足够多的企业。

　　我对中国、对北京有信心。病毒在变异，疫苗问世仍很难，疫情在一个或多个中国城市出现小反弹在所能免。不过，中国人不会惧怕抗疫进入2.0时代，正如同我在郑州的战战兢兢，中国人正在形成应对传染病的交往习惯。社会心理、口罩数量、检测仪器、大数据追踪、医疗准备都要强于1月份，没有理由在新的大考中不做得更好。

　　虽然“考卷”变得更难了，但我觉得，变难的“考卷”，才是中国迈向全球强国必须经历的风雨。经历过了，风雨就成了加冕礼。

　　以下为英文版

　　China won‘t watch globalization die

　　By Wang Wen

　　When new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Beijing in the past weekend， I was attending a forum on the “Air Silk Road” in Zhengzhou， capital city of Central China‘s Henan Province． I was quite nervous， frankly speaking， and I kept my face mask on in the meeting room and didn’t shake hands with anyone． After my speech， I left the forum quickly．

　　Having been through the about-five-month fight against the novel coronavirus， I am cautious． And I， who came from Beijing， was afraid of becoming a new source of infection in Zhengzhou．

　　This was in contrast to how certain European ambassadors who travelled from Beijing appeared at the conference - they were very relaxed． They said they are very confident in China‘s epidemic control measures and spoke highly of the Air Silk Road， or a cargo air route， that links Zhengzhou and Europe． They were optimistic about further prospects for development in China and specifically Henan Province． Prime Minister of Luxembourg Xavier Bettel sent a video clip to compliment Henan’s global contribution． The province‘s governor Yin Hong hopes that Henan will open up more and take advantage of the Air Silk Road．

　　At the moment， it is unthinkable for any city outside of China to organize such a forum now to push for greater integration with globalization． This seems to be out of the mainstream when many Western media outlets believe “globalization is dead，” and that their own countries should come first．

　　The forum in Zhengzhou was an energizing catalyst that reinvigorates the sick state of globalization， which has suffered even more due to the COVID-19 pandemic．

　　Data has proven that China is stabilizer of globalization． The WTO on April 8 said that world trade is expected to fall between 13 percent and 32 percent in 2020． The drop will mainly come from the US， whose imports declined 20.5 percent in April from January while exports fell 28.1 percent in the same period． But China‘s imports and exports in the first five months of 2020 have maintained a slight year-on-year dip of 4.9 percent． Meanwhile， exports in May increased 1.4 percent． China has become ballast stone of world trade．

　　In other words， the declining US has worsened world trade while the revival of China has been striving to save the world from more losses． Given data of the flow of international investment， mergers and acquisitions， logistics， and currency， people can see that China is rising and that the US is clearly declining． In addition to the variables of the reckless Trump administration， globalization is becoming more de-Americanized and more sinicized．

　　Globalization will not die． The process of globalization is a part of the process of human civilization． Before the 16th century， globalization in its early stage was fragmented and unsystematic． It was about spices and silks trade between Eastern and Western civilizations． After that， with the colonial expansion of European powers as the main driving force， globalization showed initial signs of the popularization of technology， population mobility， and civilization integration． After the 20th century， the US made a great contribution to globalization， primarily with an information revolution．

　　It‘s a pity that the US-led globalization hasn’t brought about a win-win result． Most of the over 100 Asian， African and Latin American countries that gained independence after WWII so far are still low-income countries． Only a few countries such as China and South Korea have emerged from cycles of poverty． Worse still， some rich countries are now facing the dilemmas of falling into the middle-income trap． These have all become excuses of anti-globalists and protectionists．

　　China has learned lessons about globalization and has hence advocated that it should be win-win， inclusive， equal， safe and interconnected． This suggestion greatly differs from the US-style of globalization that is unilaterally benefited， exclusive， asymmetric and in which countries are divided into those at the center and those being marginalized．

　　In the post-pandemic era， it‘s not easy for China to revitalize globalization． In addition to winning trust from the outside world， China must also curb the possibility of a large-scale epidemics rebounding． At the same time， China needs to stimulate the next round of globalization through domestic economic recovery．An urgent task now is to reduce infections and deaths and introduce enough effective policies， create as many as possible jobs， and bail out enough companies．

　　I have confidence in China and Beijing． The virus is mutating， and developing a vaccine is very difficult． It‘s inevitable that a small rebound will appear in one or several Chinese cities． However， the Chinese people aren’t afraid of fighting a virus battle 2.0． Chinese people are being accustomed to the social habits that need to be formed to cope with this infectious disease． The preparation in terms of social psychology， number of masks， testing kits， big data tracking， and medical supplies are far superior to what the country had in January． There is no reason that China will not do a better job in the new test this time．  

　　（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China， and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center． His latest book is Great Power‘s Long March Road．）

　　(本文作者介绍：中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长，近著有《大国的幻象：行走世界的日记与思考》。)