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Bernard Yau是一位前国民党将军的儿子。他父亲是在1949年共产党取得政权之前最后一批撤退到台湾的。Yau先生后来加入美国国籍，定居在夏威夷。现在他回到大陆，是位于成都出口加工区的四川高龙机械有限公司(Golden
Dragon Aerospace)的董事长。
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Bernard
Yau is a happy man. Son of a nationalist general who was among the last
refugees from the victorious communists in 1949, he has come back to the
mainland. An American citizen, with a home in Hawaii, he is also chairman
of Golden Dragon Aerospace, located in the Chengdu Export Processing Zone.
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Yau先生有理由得意。他的公司创办只有三年，现在为世界上100座以上的商用客机生产燃油喷嘴。罗尔斯?#32599;伊斯公司(Rolls-Royce's)所需的这种零部件全部由高龙公司提供。高龙也同时向GE公司供应其所需这类产品的60％。当公司于2000年开始运作时，世界上生产这种零部件的企业有三十几家。现在仅剩下两家：高龙公司和一家美国公司。这家美国公司已经有点危险了，为什么这么说呢？因为高龙公司的成本只有它的四分之一。
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Mr
Yau has reason to be happy. His company, founded just three years ago,
makes 70 per cent of the world's fuel nozzles for commercial aircraft with
more than 100 seats. It supplies 100 per cent of Rolls-Royce's
requirements and 60 per cent of General Electric's. When the company
started operations in 2000, the world contained three dozen manufacturers
of this component. Today, only two are left: Golden Dragon and a fragile
US supplier. It is fragile, because Golden Dragon's costs are a quarter of
its rival's.
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高龙公司的员工素质较高，队伍稳定。雇员的工资相当于当地国有企业两到三倍。即便如此，生产线工人的月平均工资只有250美元，而月薪1250美元或更少即可招聘到高层员工。高龙公司生产的燃油喷嘴能保证高质量，且准时交货，从不打折扣。用Yau先生的话说，他的公司已经现实了“零次品”和“交货延误零天”的记录。Yau先生遇到的只有一个难题，即怎样面对公司的扩张。今天，公司生产燃油喷嘴，明天，也许会生产别的产品。眼下，高龙公司的年营业额只有500万美元。下一年，可能达到1000万至2000万美元。
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Golden
Dragon has a stable, highly qualified labour force, paid two to three
times as much as those working in local state-owned enterprises. Even so,
the average wage for a production worker is just a month, while the
senior people are available at ,250 a month, or less. Fuel nozzles must
also be delivered on time and made to high standards. Golden Dragon's are.
In Mr Yau's words, his company has achieved "zero defects" and
"zero days late" in delivery. Mr Yau confronts only one problem:
how to manage expansion. Today, it is fuel nozzles. Tomorrow, it will be
other things. Today, Golden Dragon has annual turnover of only m. Next
year, it could be anywhere between m and m.
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邓小平说，不管白猫黑猫，只要逮住老鼠就是好猫。作为国民党将军的资本家儿子，毫无疑问，Yau先生是一只不同颜色的猫。但是，有谁在乎呢？他能逮住老鼠，这才是问题的关键。
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Deng
Xiaoping said that it did not matter whether a cat was black or white, so
long as it caught mice. The capitalist son of a nationalist general, Mr
Yau is a cat of a decidedly different colour. But nobody minds in the
least. He catches mice. That is what matters.
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高龙公司的故事只是中国正在发生的许多故事的一个缩影。已经有许许多多的报道，说中国正在变为21世纪的世界工厂。500家外国公司已经在成都高新技术开发区投资了15亿美元。例如，英特尔正投资3.75亿美元，建立一个测试和封装工厂。
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Golden
Dragon's story is a microcosm of what is happening in China. Repeated many
times over, it is turning Chinasintosthe 21st century's workshop of the
world. Five hundred foreign enterprises have invested .5bn in Chengdu's
Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone alone. Intel, for example, is
investing m in a testing and packaging plant.
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我喜欢数据。无论中国的数据怎样不可靠，这些数据一定比一个局外人仅仅在中国访问10天的印象要更可信一些。这是我十年中第三次访问中国，中国给我留下的印象极为深刻。
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I
love data. However unreliable China's data may be, they must be more
trustworthy than the impressions of an outsider visiting the country for
just 10 days. But on this, my third trip to China in 10 years, the
impressions have been overwhelming.
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到处可以见到蓬勃发展的景象。不仅在北京、上海，甚至在四川的省会成都，都可以看到建设的规模和速度。四川是中国西南省份，人均省内生产总值只有上海的六分之一。但在成都这个400多万人口的城市中，处处是新建的高楼。道路上有无数的汽车。
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The
dynamism is to be seen everywhere. It is to be seen in the scale and speed
of construction, not just in Beijing and Shanghai but even in Chengdu,
capital of Sichuan, a south-western province whose gross domestic product
per head is a sixth of Shanghai's. Even Chengdu, a city of little more
than 4m people, is full of huge new buildings. It is also full of cars.
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北京现在严重塞车。当我6年前访问北京时，一刻钟便可以赶到开会地点。现在，同样的距离需要花两到四倍的时间。到2007年，中国各类汽车生产能力将达到1500万辆。这将造成全球产能过剩。在中国，汽车数量的增速看来要超过中国人修路的能力。北京已经开通五环路。但这还是不够。
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Beijing
is now choking on them. When I last visited the city, six years ago, it
was possible to reach meetings in a quarter of an hour. Now, the time
required for the same journeys is anywhere between two and four times as
long. By 2007, Chinese production capacity of all kinds of motor vehicles
will be 15m. This threatens a global glut. At home, the growth in the
number of vehicles seems certain to outpace even the Chinese ability to
put land under tarmac. Beijing already has a fifth ring-road. Even that is
not enough.
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高龙公司的故事并不仅仅关于中国的增长，而且也体现了中国的实用主义方法。共产党必须领导人们走向繁荣。只要有利于达到此目标的政策便是好的政策。
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The
story of Golden Dragon does not just tell us about China's dynamism but
also about its pragmatism. Communist ideology has not vanished altogether.
One can see it in the continuing refusal to grant absolute private
ownership of land and the desire to retain substantial state ownership of
industry. But the party must provide prosperity. Whatever works towards
that end is a good policy.
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当我第一次访问中国时，我遇到的许多高级官员都是负责传统党务工作的。现在，取代他们的是技术能力更强、更加专业、通常在国外接受过培训的官员。这些官员面临巨大的挑战。银行失去偿付能力只是一个例子。不难相信，他们的某些努力将不能成功。而且他们会作出某些错误的决策。但是，有可能阻碍他们成功的，既不是意识形态，也不是对世界的无知。
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When
I first visited the country, many of the top officials I met were
traditional party functionaries. Today, their replacements are technically
competent, professional and frequently foreign-trained. These officials
confront huge challenges. The insolvency of the banks is just one example.
It is easy to believe that they will fail in some of their efforts. It is
easy, too, to believe that some of their decisions will be mistaken. But
neither ideology nor ignorance of the world will be an obstacle to their
success.
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如果说蓬勃发展和实用主义是当代中国两个明显的积极特征，那么事情的另一方面也同样是不言而喻的。在中国整个沿海地区，有可能会出现世界上最长最大的都市群。中国也可能造成该地区严重的交通拥挤和环境污染，且不说这还会导致全球二氧化碳排放的巨大增加。
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If
dynamism and pragmatism are two obvious positive features of contemporary
China, the nightmares are equally evident. China could end up creating the
world's longest and biggest megalopolis, stretching all the way along its
coast. It might generate overwhelming local congestion and pollution, not
to mention a huge addition to global emissions of carbon dioxide.
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即使人们不把这些不良后果预测得这么严重，但却不能忽视即将到来的剧变。如果中国在出口方面维持过去十年的增长速度，到2025年时，中国占世界商品出口总额的比重将从目前的大约6％增加到三分之一。届时，中国将毫无疑问地占有比现在要大得多的比重。
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Even
if one plays down the nightmares, one cannot ignore the looming upheavals.
If China sustained the last decade's growth in export volume, it could
generate a third of the world's merchandise exports by 2025, up from about
6 per cent today. It will certainly generate a much bigger share than now.
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同时，剧变也是形容中国国内变化的恰当词汇。目前中国的城市人口大约占40％。国务院发展研究中心主任王梦奎表示，20年后这个比例将接近60％。这意味着将有3亿人从农村转移到城市地区。有人认为，该数字将接近5亿。不管转移多少，中国将不再是一个沿袭了几千年的农业国家了。这是场真正的“文化大革命”，掀起这场“革命”的不是红卫兵，而是市场。
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Upheaval
is also the right world for the domestic transformation. Today, China's
population is almost 40 per cent urbanised. In 20 years, this proportion
will be close to 60 per cent, suggests Wang Mengkui, director of the
development research institute of the state council. That would mean
movement of some 300m people from rural to urban areas. Some believe this
number will be closer to 500m. Either way, China would cease to be the
predominantly rural country it has been for millennia. This really is a
"cultural revolution", one brought about not by Red Guards but
by the market.
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尽管存在各种统计上的困难，中国之行能让人完全清楚地了解，中国正在发生的一切不仅是实实在在的，而且除非发生灾难性的大事，也将是无法阻止的。这是十亿多人产生的能量。中国官方的目标是，在今后二十年内使中国的GDP翻两番。我不会下相反的赌注。如果政策环境能够进一步改善，增长速度很容易比这更快。
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A
visit to China makes abundantly clear that what is happening here is, for
all the difficulties with measurement, not only real but also unstoppable
by anything short of a cataclysm. The energies of more than a billion
people are now engaged. The Chinese authorities talk of quadrupling GDP
over the next two decades. I would not bet against them. If policy
improved, growth could easily be faster than that.
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英国作家塞缪尔•约翰逊(Samuel Johnson)说，赚钱本身无可厚非。Yau先生在努力赚钱，同时帮助他的祖国发展。这也是几亿中国人正在努力做的事情。赚钱本身的确是没错的。但是，他们通过赚钱，也在创造革命性的转变。整个世界将不得不逐渐习惯这样的事实。
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Samuel
Johnson remarked that a man is never so innocently employed as when he is
making money. Mr Yau is endeavouring to make money, while helping his
ancestral country develop. So, as best they can, are hundreds of millions
of Chinese. The employment is innocent indeed. But it is also creating a
revolutionary transformation. The rest of the world will have to get used
to that fact. xref martin.wolf@ft.com
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作者简介：马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)是《金融时报》的副编辑(associate
editor)和首席经济评论家。他对全球经济有着精辟的深刻分析，获得了国际上各界广泛普遍的承认赞赏。最近，在他荣获2003年度“最佳商务记者奖”评奖中，他获得了其中的“十年杰出成就奖”等殊荣。沃尔夫先生1971年毕业于牛津大学，获经济学硕士。然后，他到在到世界银行任职工作，并于1974年出任世行资深经济学家。1999年以来，他一直是每年一度的“世界经济论坛”的特邀评委成员。
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martin.wolf@ft.com
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译者/秋实
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