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中信证券(资讯 行情 论坛)研究部 江赛春
上周A股市场的反弹没能延续，基金重仓股再度出现了全面调整态势。除几个大盘指标股之外，前周强烈反弹的基金重仓股普遍陷入调整，尤以高价股更为明显。而从基金的操作来看，上周基金仓位总体处于调整之中，观望态度浓厚。
仓位测算结果显示，上周五88只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.06%，与前周的61.20%相比小幅下降了0.14%。封闭式基金加权平均仓位从前周的67.12%再度微降至66.98%。从具体基金的操作来看，多数基金仓位变动幅度不大，仓位略增和仓位略减的基金大概各占一半，但仓位变动的绝对幅度都在2%以内。盛利混合、天治财富增长、银华88仓位增幅较为明显；在另一方面，易方达平稳增长、德盛稳健和合丰稳定减持较为明显。略有增仓的还是轻仓基金，而高仓位老基金仍然保持着小幅减仓的趋势。总体来看目前基金操作并未有大起大落，观望态度十分浓厚。
从这两周基金仓位的变化情况来看，更加确定的是基金并非此次反弹行情的主导。前一周的单日超常反弹是对政策层坚决做多的反映，但这种反弹持续的时间和力度都不足以显示主流资金已经转向积极做多。由此来看反弹由游资发动的可能性似乎更大。目前政策面仍然倾向于持续推动市场做多，但在推出实质性改变市场预期的政策之前，这种反弹仍然难以确立。
从上周基金重仓股的表现来看，前周引领反弹的基金重仓股出现全面调整，这种调整反而应该反映了主流资金所持的基本判断。基金高度重仓的股票有超过一半下跌，且跌幅明显超过相关股票的涨幅程度。以中集集团(资讯 行情 论坛)、中远航运(资讯 行情 论坛)等为代表的航运类股票、烟台万华(资讯 行情 论坛)为代表的化工类股票、云南白药(资讯 行情 论坛)等医药类股票、西山煤电(资讯 行情 论坛)、兖州煤业(资讯 行情 论坛)等煤炭类股票都出现了连续下跌，“6.8”反弹中的涨幅在短短数日内已经重新消失。但在另一方面，宝钢股份(资讯 行情 论坛)、招商银行(资讯 行情 论坛)等大盘指标股走势却趋稳。在此我们可以看到基本面的变化仍然是影响股价走势的重要因素，而这种调整应该反映了基金为代表的主流资金的基本判断。总体而言上周基金观望态度明显，如果未来市场发展中没有基金重仓股走好，管理层努力营造的反弹行情将会很快夭折。
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基金名称
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本周持仓
比例估计
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上周持仓
比例估计
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本周持仓
比例变动
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本周持仓
净变动
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增持状态
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盛利混合 |
19.74% |
17.38% |
2.36% |
2.41% |
仓位稳定 |
天治增长 |
35.31% |
33.12% |
2.19% |
2.24% |
银华 88 |
55.32% |
53.21% |
2.11% |
2.16% |
普天收益 |
56.43% |
54.34% |
2.09% |
2.14% |
宝盈增长 |
20.18% |
18.16% |
2.02% |
2.07% |
华安创新 |
67.57% |
65.66% |
1.91% |
1.96% |
东吴嘉禾 |
57.61% |
56.14% |
1.47% |
1.52% |
荷银混合 |
26.52% |
25.18% |
1.34% |
1.39% |
长城久恒 |
62.07% |
60.74% |
1.33% |
1.38% |
东方龙 |
52.08% |
50.78% |
1.30% |
1.35% |
招商先锋 |
66.52% |
65.23% |
1.29% |
1.34% |
景顺鼎益 |
37.64% |
36.39% |
1.25% |
1.30% |
景顺股票 |
66.53% |
65.34% |
1.20% |
1.25% |
国泰稳健 |
57.65% |
56.53% |
1.12% |
1.17% |
鹏华行业 |
62.11% |
61.07% |
1.03% |
1.09% |
中国优势 |
68.78% |
67.79% |
0.99% |
1.04% |
博时主题 |
59.89% |
58.94% |
0.96% |
1.01% |
中融行业 |
65.45% |
64.53% |
0.92% |
0.97% |
宝利配置 |
56.57% |
55.65% |
0.91% |
0.96% |
富国动态 |
56.57% |
55.66% |
0.90% |
0.95% |
融通行业 |
62.12% |
61.23% |
0.90% |
0.95% |
德盛精选 |
37.36% |
36.47% |
0.89% |
0.94% |
广发聚富 |
66.57% |
65.71% |
0.87% |
0.92% |
华安 180 |
73.24% |
72.41% |
0.83% |
0.88% |
中国 50 |
65.47% |
64.72% |
0.75% |
0.81% |
银河稳健 |
57.70% |
57.00% |
0.70% |
0.75% |
华夏成长 |
60.60% |
59.90% |
0.70% |
0.75% |
富国天瑞 |
41.04% |
40.39% |
0.65% |
0.70% |
银河理财 |
62.15% |
61.52% |
0.63% |
0.68% |
华富混合 |
35.49% |
34.87% |
0.61% |
0.66% |
申万精选 |
64.38% |
63.83% |
0.56% |
0.61% |
宝康消费 |
62.17% |
61.71% |
0.46% |
0.51% |
华宝策略 |
67.74% |
67.36% |
0.38% |
0.43% |
华夏大盘 |
61.08% |
60.77% |
0.31% |
0.36% |
中银中国 |
42.19% |
41.88% |
0.31% |
0.36% |
嘉实成长 |
71.08% |
70.78% |
0.30% |
0.35% |
巨田基础 |
65.52% |
65.23% |
0.29% |
0.34% |
金鹰精选 |
62.19% |
61.92% |
0.27% |
0.32% |
长盛动态 |
61.09% |
60.87% |
0.21% |
0.27% |
海富通精选 |
61.09% |
60.93% |
0.16% |
0.21% |
广发稳健 |
64.44% |
64.40% |
0.04% |
0.09% |
招商平衡 |
45.56% |
45.64% |
-0.08% |
-0.03% |
博时精选 |
65.57% |
65.70% |
-0.13% |
-0.07% |
宝盈鸿利 |
65.57% |
65.72% |
-0.15% |
-0.10% |
银华优势 |
62.24% |
62.40% |
-0.16% |
-0.11% |
大成稳健 |
65.57% |
65.73% |
-0.16% |
-0.11% |
易方达平稳 |
66.47% |
66.71% |
-0.25% |
-0.20% |
国泰精选 |
60.03% |
60.27% |
-0.25% |
-0.20% |
光大保德 |
77.83% |
78.34% |
-0.51% |
-0.46% |
嘉实服务 |
63.40% |
63.96% |
-0.56% |
-0.51% |
招商股票 |
63.54% |
64.12% |
-0.58% |
-0.53% |
广发小盘 |
68.95% |
69.54% |
-0.59% |
-0.54% |
合丰成长 |
60.07% |
60.68% |
-0.62% |
-0.56% |
融通新蓝筹 |
66.74% |
67.36% |
-0.62% |
-0.57% |
易方达策略 |
72.31% |
73.12% |
-0.81% |
-0.76% |
海富收益 |
46.76% |
47.58% |
-0.82% |
-0.77% |
嘉实增长 |
66.76% |
67.65% |
-0.88% |
-0.83% |
易方达 50 |
80.10% |
81.05% |
-0.94% |
-0.89% |
天治品质 |
70.11% |
71.08% |
-0.97% |
-0.92% |
景顺平衡 |
46.78% |
47.77% |
-0.99% |
-0.94% |
宝康配置 |
55.67% |
56.68% |
-1.02% |
-0.96% |
长盛成长 |
65.67% |
66.71% |
-1.04% |
-0.99% |
荷银精选 |
66.79% |
67.86% |
-1.07% |
-1.02% |
南方积配 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-1.03% |
景顺内需 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.09% |
-1.03% |
融通 100 |
67.90% |
69.00% |
-1.10% |
-1.05% |
南方稳健 |
63.46% |
64.58% |
-1.12% |
-1.07% |
嘉实稳健 |
62.35% |
63.48% |
-1.13% |
-1.08% |
天同 180 |
70.13% |
71.29% |
-1.16% |
-1.11% |
金鹰优选 |
64.58% |
65.76% |
-1.18% |
-1.13% |
融通成长 |
61.25% |
62.46% |
-1.21% |
-1.16% |
博时裕富 |
80.14% |
81.35% |
-1.22% |
-1.16% |
国泰金鹰 |
61.25% |
62.47% |
-1.23% |
-1.18% |
富国价值 |
66.82% |
68.23% |
-1.41% |
-1.36% |
大成价值 |
61.28% |
62.76% |
-1.48% |
-1.43% |
合丰周期 |
65.72% |
67.22% |
-1.50% |
-1.45% |
博时价值 |
70.17% |
71.68% |
-1.51% |
-1.46% |
大成精选 |
60.17% |
61.71% |
-1.53% |
-1.48% |
诺安平衡 |
60.18% |
61.84% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
华夏回报 |
61.30% |
62.96% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
长城久泰 |
72.42% |
74.23% |
-1.81% |
-1.76% |
长信银利 |
66.87% |
68.73% |
-1.86% |
-1.81% |
国联成长 |
72.46% |
74.60% |
-2.14% |
-2.08% |
泰信策略 |
70.24% |
72.43% |
-2.19% |
-2.14% |
合丰稳定 |
62.47% |
64.73% |
-2.25% |
-2.20% |
德盛稳健 |
51.36% |
53.63% |
-2.26% |
-2.21% |
易基成长 |
72.48% |
74.77% |
-2.30% |
-2.24% |
加权平均 |
61.06% |
61.20% |
-0.14% |
-0.12% |
仓位稳定 |
| 资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春 截至：2005-06-17 制表：新浪财经 |
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