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中信证券研究部 江赛春
上周A股市场出现了持续阴跌以来最为壮观的反弹。在股指盘中跌破1000点大关后，市场出现强劲的反弹。而在各种因素的作用下，股指在周三收出了多年未见的长阳。前期轮番做空的基金重仓股成为引领反弹的板块，基金重仓股的全面大涨带动了全市场压抑已久的反弹欲望。但从上周基金的操作来看，基金总体上保持着一定程度上的减仓态势，由基金主
导发动此轮反弹的可能性很小。相反，我们判断有部分基金采取了反弹减仓的策略。
仓位测算结果显示，上周五88只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.20%，比前周的61.65%小幅下降了0.45%。封闭式基金加权平均仓位从前周的66.15%略为回升至67.12%。但若考虑到上周股指高达8.83%的涨幅，扣除价格变动因素后实际上减仓较为明显。从具体基金的操作来看，上周多数基金采取了小幅减仓行为。考虑到被动仓位变化因素后，上周富国天瑞和华富混合两只基金显示为减仓迹象。此外德盛精选、融通成长、国泰金鹰等基金减持也较为明显。在增仓基金方面，仍然是一些轻仓新基金有增持迹象，但上周增持幅度并不明显，显示在上周的大幅反弹中，逢高减持比追高买入更为普遍。
从上周的仓位测算结果来看，基金并非此次反弹行情的主导。在上周三的“井喷”行情中，前期大幅做空的基金重仓股成为引领市场反弹的风向标。中国石化(资讯 行情 论坛)、长江电力(资讯 行情 论坛)等大盘蓝筹股的暴涨在很大程度上激活了市场人气；前期领跌的高价股中集集团(资讯 行情 论坛)迅速涨停，带动了一批高价股报复性反弹。基金重仓板块的全面复苏带动了整个市场全面上涨。对于本轮反弹的资金来源与资金性质，市场存在着开放式基金、平准资金、保险资金、券商资金等诸多猜测。但是从本次反弹的特点和上述不同机构的资金数量及资金性质的情况来看，由这些机构主导发动此次行情的概率并不大。
从基金的情况来看，基金在1100点以下迫于各方压力开始全面减持，甚至不少基金对基金重仓股进行了不计成本的抛售。但总体而言在市场持续缩量下跌的情况下基金仓位调整并不充分，相当部分基金仓位比例仍然较高。从偏股型基金可动用资金的规模来看，按60%的平均仓位计算仅有300亿元左右的非股票资产，因此从可用资金的角度基金并没有足够的力量发动这轮反弹。从策略层面看，如果基金已转向战略性做空，很难想象在短短的时间内基金群体又联合反手大规模做多。由上周的基金仓位变化情况也可以看到这一点，总体而言基金仍然在小幅减持，表明不少基金利用上周大幅反弹的机会进行了适度减仓，更多的基金可以利用这一机会进行仓位结构的调整。
同样从其他各类机构资金的资金数量和资金性质上，这些机构资金主导发动“6.8”反弹的可能性都不大。由此来看在政策利好的刺激下，由游资发动报复性反弹的可能性比较大，而这也契合了市场从1300点以来一直压抑的反弹欲望。在脱离1000点区域以后市场总体走向如何仍然取决于一些实质性的政策面和基本面因素如何变化。
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基金名称
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本周持仓
比例估计
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上周持仓
比例估计
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本周持仓
比例变动
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本周持仓
净变动
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增持状态
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东方龙 |
50.78% |
46.81% |
3.97% |
1.86% |
仓位稳定 |
中银中国 |
41.88% |
38.79% |
3.09% |
1.06% |
天治增长 |
33.12% |
31.19% |
1.93% |
0.08% |
易方达平稳 |
66.71% |
64.74% |
1.97% |
0.07% |
广发聚富 |
65.71% |
63.71% |
2.00% |
0.06% |
荷银混合 |
25.18% |
23.65% |
1.53% |
-0.04% |
普天收益 |
54.34% |
52.37% |
1.97% |
-0.13% |
博时主题 |
58.94% |
57.09% |
1.85% |
-0.21% |
融通新蓝筹 |
67.36% |
65.76% |
1.60% |
-0.28% |
合丰周期 |
67.22% |
65.64% |
1.58% |
-0.30% |
宝盈增长 |
18.16% |
17.27% |
0.89% |
-0.35% |
长信银利 |
68.73% |
67.31% |
1.42% |
-0.41% |
光大保德 |
78.34% |
77.35% |
0.99% |
-0.46% |
华安 180 |
72.41% |
71.41% |
1.00% |
-0.70% |
博时价值 |
71.68% |
70.75% |
0.93% |
-0.80% |
易方达策略 |
73.12% |
72.31% |
0.81% |
-0.85% |
博时精选 |
65.70% |
64.70% |
1.00% |
-0.91% |
中国 50 |
64.72% |
63.72% |
1.00% |
-0.94% |
合丰稳定 |
64.73% |
63.73% |
1.00% |
-0.94% |
德盛稳健 |
53.63% |
52.46% |
1.17% |
-0.94% |
大成价值 |
62.76% |
61.76% |
1.00% |
-0.98% |
合丰成长 |
60.68% |
59.68% |
1.00% |
-1.02% |
银华 88 |
53.21% |
52.13% |
1.08% |
-1.02% |
招商先锋 |
65.23% |
64.37% |
0.86% |
-1.05% |
宝盈鸿利 |
65.72% |
64.88% |
0.84% |
-1.06% |
富国动态 |
55.66% |
54.66% |
1.00% |
-1.08% |
宝康消费 |
61.71% |
60.81% |
0.90% |
-1.10% |
华夏成长 |
59.90% |
58.99% |
0.91% |
-1.12% |
宝康配置 |
56.68% |
55.78% |
0.90% |
-1.17% |
招商股票 |
64.12% |
63.45% |
0.67% |
-1.27% |
嘉实稳健 |
63.48% |
62.80% |
0.68% |
-1.28% |
华夏大盘 |
60.77% |
60.16% |
0.61% |
-1.40% |
富国价值 |
68.23% |
67.83% |
0.40% |
-1.42% |
天治品质 |
71.08% |
70.82% |
0.26% |
-1.46% |
广发稳健 |
64.40% |
63.97% |
0.43% |
-1.50% |
鹏华行业 |
61.07% |
60.73% |
0.34% |
-1.66% |
嘉实增长 |
67.65% |
67.65% |
0.00% |
-1.83% |
国联成长 |
74.60% |
74.95% |
-0.35% |
-1.91% |
中国优势 |
67.79% |
67.94% |
-0.15% |
-1.96% |
海富通精选 |
60.93% |
60.93% |
0.00% |
-1.99% |
景顺平衡 |
47.77% |
47.69% |
0.08% |
-2.04% |
海富收益 |
47.58% |
47.58% |
0.00% |
-2.12% |
长盛成长 |
66.71% |
67.09% |
-0.38% |
-2.22% |
嘉实成长 |
70.78% |
71.36% |
-0.58% |
-2.28% |
盛利混合 |
17.38% |
18.38% |
-1.00% |
-2.30% |
大成稳健 |
65.73% |
66.17% |
-0.44% |
-2.31% |
长城久泰 |
74.23% |
75.00% |
-0.77% |
-2.32% |
国泰精选 |
60.27% |
60.75% |
-0.48% |
-2.47% |
诺安平衡 |
61.84% |
62.47% |
-0.63% |
-2.59% |
南方积配 |
67.87% |
68.67% |
-0.80% |
-2.59% |
景顺鼎益 |
36.39% |
37.03% |
-0.64% |
-2.63% |
中融行业 |
64.53% |
65.30% |
-0.77% |
-2.66% |
金鹰优选 |
65.76% |
66.58% |
-0.82% |
-2.68% |
景顺内需 |
67.87% |
68.79% |
-0.92% |
-2.71% |
泰信策略 |
72.43% |
73.57% |
-1.14% |
-2.75% |
银河稳健 |
57.00% |
57.70% |
-0.70% |
-2.75% |
华安创新 |
65.66% |
66.57% |
-0.91% |
-2.77% |
融通 100 |
69.00% |
70.04% |
-1.04% |
-2.78% |
广发小盘 |
69.54% |
70.68% |
-1.14% |
-2.86% |
华宝策略 |
67.36% |
68.42% |
-1.06% |
-2.86% |
招商平衡 |
45.64% |
46.44% |
-0.80% |
-2.91% |
申万精选 |
63.83% |
64.83% |
-1.00% |
-2.91% |
宝利配置 |
55.65% |
56.52% |
-0.87% |
-2.94% |
金鹰精选 |
61.92% |
62.92% |
-1.00% |
-2.95% |
大成精选 |
61.71% |
62.71% |
-1.00% |
-2.96% |
长盛动态 |
60.87% |
61.87% |
-1.00% |
-2.97% |
融通行业 |
61.23% |
62.27% |
-1.04% |
-3.01% |
南方稳健 |
64.58% |
65.80% |
-1.22% |
-3.10% |
银河理财 |
61.52% |
62.72% |
-1.20% |
-3.15% |
国泰稳健 |
56.53% |
57.65% |
-1.12% |
-3.17% |
易基成长 |
74.77% |
76.48% |
-1.71% |
-3.20% |
景顺股票 |
65.34% |
66.69% |
-1.35% |
-3.21% |
天同 180 |
71.29% |
72.94% |
-1.65% |
-3.28% |
易方达 50 |
81.05% |
83.21% |
-2.16% |
-3.31% |
博时裕富 |
81.35% |
83.57% |
-2.22% |
-3.35% |
巨田基础 |
65.23% |
66.87% |
-1.64% |
-3.48% |
银华优势 |
62.40% |
63.97% |
-1.57% |
-3.50% |
荷银精选 |
67.86% |
69.65% |
-1.79% |
-3.55% |
嘉实服务 |
63.96% |
65.74% |
-1.78% |
-3.66% |
华夏回报 |
62.96% |
64.96% |
-2.00% |
-3.90% |
长城久恒 |
60.74% |
62.74% |
-2.00% |
-3.95% |
德盛精选 |
36.47% |
38.47% |
-2.00% |
-4.02% |
融通成长 |
62.46% |
64.60% |
-2.14% |
-4.05% |
国泰金鹰 |
62.47% |
64.74% |
-2.27% |
-4.17% |
东吴嘉禾 |
56.14% |
58.61% |
-2.47% |
-4.51% |
富国天瑞 |
40.39% |
43.31% |
-2.92% |
-5.01% |
减持迹象 |
华富混合 |
34.87% |
39.74% |
-4.87% |
-6.91% |
加权平均 |
61.20% |
61.65% |
-0.45% |
-2.77% |
仓位稳定 |
| 资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春 截至：2005-06-10 制表：新浪财经 |
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