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中信证券研究部 江赛春
上周A股市场呈现加速下跌态势。股指连续两周快速下挫近100点，股指一度十分接近1000点重要关口。基金重仓股继续成为市场最大的做空动力，在大盘蓝筹略有企稳的同时，高价股板块仍然轮番大幅下挫。从上周基金的操作来看，基金总体上保持着减仓态势，但与前一周相比减持幅度有所下降，相当部分的基金在市场临近1000点时表现出一定的观望情
绪。
仓位测算结果显示，上周五88只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.65%，比前周的62.00%小幅下降了0.35%。封闭式基金加权平均仓位从前周的67.00%下降至66.15%，下降0.85%。从具体基金的操作来看，与前周基金显示全面减持态势不同的是，上周基金减仓的步伐明显有所放缓，而在仓位较轻的新基金中反而出现了一定的增仓迹象。上周东方龙、荷银混合、宝盈增长和华富混合4只基金显示为增仓迹象，这部分基金仓位都很轻。在另一方面，上周多数基金仍然保持了小幅减仓态势，但减仓幅度明显有所放缓，在市场加速向1000点靠拢时基金出现了比较明显的观望态度。
从上周市场情况来看，第二批股权分置试点传闻使周三周四股指加速向1000点滑落。在临近1000点时一度出现恐慌性下跌，基金重仓股盘中全面暴跌。高价股中的盐湖钾肥(资讯 行情 论坛)、云南白药(资讯 行情 论坛)、张裕(资讯 行情 论坛)A、苏宁电器(资讯 行情 论坛)等出现盘中跌停，高价股已经成为重仓股新一轮下跌的重灾区。周五在1000点重要关口，股指在即将破位之际快速拉高，避免了直线跌破1000点的局面。近两周重仓股的全面暴跌是很长一段时间来罕见的现象，也使基金遭受了沉重打击。5月基金净值损失接近200亿，这已超过前几年基金盈利的总和，这种局面几乎是几年来基金经历的最黑暗的时刻。由此也不难理解基金策略陷入混乱，部分基金加入恐慌性抛盘的行列。从上周情况来看，在临近1000点基金出现了比较明显的观望情绪，这一重要的整数关口对投资者有着微妙的心理影响。但若外在环境没有显著改变，市场各方心态和策略的微妙变化都有可能使市场延续目前的下跌趋势。
开放式基金仓位测算结果一览
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基金名称
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本周持仓
比例估计
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上周持仓
比例估计
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本周持仓
比例变动
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本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
东方龙 |
46.81% |
38.56% |
8.25% |
9.08% |
增持迹象 |
荷银混合 |
23.65% |
17.51% |
6.14% |
6.65% |
宝盈增长 |
17.27% |
11.62% |
5.65% |
6.01% |
华富混合 |
39.74% |
34.87% |
4.86% |
5.66% |
长信银利 |
67.31% |
63.75% |
3.56% |
4.38% |
仓位稳定 |
天治品质 |
70.82% |
67.36% |
3.46% |
4.24% |
景顺鼎益 |
37.03% |
33.90% |
3.13% |
3.91% |
富国天瑞 |
43.31% |
40.39% |
2.92% |
3.77% |
大成精选 |
62.71% |
61.09% |
1.61% |
2.45% |
宝康消费 |
60.81% |
59.55% |
1.26% |
2.11% |
华夏大盘 |
60.16% |
59.03% |
1.13% |
1.99% |
长盛动态 |
61.87% |
60.80% |
1.07% |
1.92% |
广发小盘 |
70.68% |
69.54% |
1.13% |
1.88% |
华宝策略 |
68.42% |
67.44% |
0.98% |
1.76% |
德盛精选 |
38.47% |
37.66% |
0.82% |
1.64% |
易方达平稳 |
64.74% |
64.08% |
0.66% |
1.47% |
博时主题 |
57.09% |
56.52% |
0.57% |
1.44% |
中银中国 |
38.79% |
38.24% |
0.55% |
1.38% |
富国价值 |
67.83% |
67.34% |
0.50% |
1.28% |
国泰金鹰 |
64.74% |
64.30% |
0.45% |
1.26% |
天治增长 |
31.19% |
30.74% |
0.45% |
1.19% |
广发稳健 |
63.97% |
63.60% |
0.37% |
1.19% |
易方达策略 |
72.31% |
71.89% |
0.43% |
1.14% |
长盛成长 |
67.09% |
66.84% |
0.25% |
1.03% |
大成稳健 |
66.17% |
65.95% |
0.22% |
1.01% |
光大保德 |
77.35% |
76.97% |
0.38% |
1.01% |
天同 180 |
72.94% |
72.64% |
0.30% |
1.01% |
合丰稳定 |
63.73% |
63.58% |
0.15% |
0.97% |
海富收益 |
47.58% |
47.50% |
0.07% |
0.95% |
博时精选 |
64.70% |
64.56% |
0.14% |
0.95% |
招商平衡 |
46.44% |
46.38% |
0.06% |
0.93% |
中国优势 |
67.94% |
67.83% |
0.11% |
0.88% |
普天收益 |
52.37% |
52.47% |
-0.09% |
0.78% |
嘉实服务 |
65.74% |
65.78% |
-0.04% |
0.76% |
融通 100 |
70.04% |
70.03% |
0.01% |
0.75% |
融通成长 |
64.60% |
64.76% |
-0.16% |
0.65% |
中融行业 |
65.30% |
65.60% |
-0.30% |
0.50% |
景顺平衡 |
47.69% |
48.12% |
-0.43% |
0.45% |
海富通精选 |
60.93% |
61.34% |
-0.41% |
0.43% |
景顺股票 |
66.69% |
67.11% |
-0.43% |
0.35% |
南方稳健 |
65.80% |
66.29% |
-0.49% |
0.30% |
巨田基础 |
66.87% |
67.35% |
-0.48% |
0.30% |
景顺内需 |
68.79% |
69.24% |
-0.45% |
0.30% |
宝康配置 |
55.78% |
56.37% |
-0.59% |
0.28% |
华夏成长 |
58.99% |
59.57% |
-0.58% |
0.27% |
南方积配 |
68.67% |
69.18% |
-0.51% |
0.24% |
博时价值 |
70.75% |
71.32% |
-0.57% |
0.15% |
鹏华行业 |
60.73% |
61.42% |
-0.69% |
0.15% |
银河稳健 |
57.70% |
58.43% |
-0.74% |
0.12% |
富国动态 |
54.66% |
55.44% |
-0.77% |
0.10% |
银河理财 |
62.72% |
63.47% |
-0.75% |
0.07% |
大成价值 |
61.76% |
62.55% |
-0.79% |
0.04% |
金鹰优选 |
66.58% |
67.33% |
-0.74% |
0.03% |
融通新蓝筹 |
65.76% |
66.54% |
-0.78% |
0.01% |
广发聚富 |
63.71% |
64.57% |
-0.87% |
-0.06% |
华安创新 |
66.57% |
67.42% |
-0.85% |
-0.07% |
泰信策略 |
73.57% |
74.34% |
-0.77% |
-0.09% |
德盛稳健 |
52.46% |
53.49% |
-1.03% |
-0.15% |
诺安平衡 |
62.47% |
63.47% |
-1.00% |
-0.18% |
申万精选 |
64.83% |
65.84% |
-1.02% |
-0.22% |
宝盈鸿利 |
64.88% |
65.91% |
-1.03% |
-0.23% |
华夏回报 |
64.96% |
65.99% |
-1.03% |
-0.24% |
国联成长 |
74.95% |
75.87% |
-0.92% |
-0.27% |
荷银精选 |
69.65% |
70.69% |
-1.03% |
-0.30% |
金鹰精选 |
62.92% |
64.35% |
-1.43% |
-0.62% |
嘉实增长 |
67.65% |
69.06% |
-1.41% |
-0.66% |
招商股票 |
63.45% |
65.02% |
-1.57% |
-0.77% |
东吴嘉禾 |
58.61% |
60.33% |
-1.72% |
-0.87% |
易基成长 |
76.48% |
78.00% |
-1.53% |
-0.92% |
合丰成长 |
59.68% |
61.48% |
-1.80% |
-0.96% |
国泰稳健 |
57.65% |
59.50% |
-1.84% |
-0.99% |
华安 180 |
71.41% |
73.16% |
-1.75% |
-1.05% |
合丰周期 |
65.64% |
67.47% |
-1.83% |
-1.06% |
盛利混合 |
18.38% |
20.01% |
-1.63% |
-1.07% |
宝利配置 |
56.52% |
58.46% |
-1.95% |
-1.09% |
嘉实成长 |
71.36% |
73.21% |
-1.85% |
-1.15% |
嘉实稳健 |
62.80% |
64.90% |
-2.10% |
-1.29% |
中国 50 |
63.72% |
66.18% |
-2.46% |
-1.67% |
国泰精选 |
60.75% |
63.59% |
-2.84% |
-2.02% |
银华 88 |
52.13% |
55.12% |
-2.99% |
-2.11% |
易方达 50 |
83.21% |
85.82% |
-2.61% |
-2.18% |
博时裕富 |
83.57% |
86.36% |
-2.79% |
-2.37% |
长城久泰 |
75.00% |
78.00% |
-3.00% |
-2.39% |
长城久恒 |
62.74% |
66.10% |
-3.35% |
-2.56% |
银华优势 |
63.97% |
67.53% |
-3.57% |
-2.79% |
招商先锋 |
64.37% |
68.55% |
-4.18% |
-3.42% |
融通行业 |
62.27% |
66.52% |
-4.26% |
-3.47% |
加权平均 |
61.65% |
62.00% |
-0.35% |
0.48% |
仓位稳定 |
| 数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春 截至：2005-06-03 制表：新浪财经 |
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