高盛：美国政府或在11月停摆2-3周 Goldman Sachs: The US government may shut down for 2-3 weeks in November_新浪财经

来源：华尔街见闻

作者：卜淑情

高盛认为，11月份的政府停摆迫在眉睫，仍将停摆2-3周作为基本情况。这将使美国第四季度的GDP增长速度下降约0.5个百分点，并在明年一季度保持相同的幅度。

美国众议院新议长诞生后，高盛发出警告，11月份美国政府停摆2至3周是基本情况。

据媒体周四报道，高盛指出新议长的产生并没有实际改变其对于四季度政府关门的看法。

虽然临时议长治下的工作会产生不确定性，但如果到了11月17日最后期限只有一位临时发言人，最有可能的结果就是再次延长政府支出预算。

高盛认为，在新议长的带领下，众议院共和党人似乎很可能会向民主党人施压，要求削减至多1200亿美元的支出，这将使长期开支协议难以达成。

在乌克兰拨款问题上的分歧也可能使支出谈判复杂化。尽管如此，以色列最近的事态发展降低了政府11月停摆的可能性。

就目前而言，高盛认为，11月份的政府停摆迫在眉睫，仍将停摆2-3周作为基本情况。这将使美国第四季度的GDP增长速度下降约0.5个百分点，并在明年一季度保持相同的幅度。

据央视新闻报道，当地时间25日，美国路易斯安那州共和党议员迈克·约翰逊在众议院议长选举投票中获得220票，当选新一任众议长。约翰逊现任众议院共和党会议副主席，于24日晚被选为共和党内议长候选人。

9月末，美国参议院在“最后时刻”通过了一项避免政府关门的短期支出法案，将政府资金支出延长45天至11月中旬。法案内容包括了16亿美元的救灾措施，但不包括对乌克兰的援助，也不包括共和党人寻求的边境安全措施。

编辑/tolk

Source: Wall Street News

Author: Bu Shuqing

Goldman Sachs believes that a government shutdown in November is imminent, and the 2-3 week shutdown is still the basic situation. This will reduce the US GDP growth rate by about 0.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter and maintain the same margin in the first quarter of next year.

After the new Speaker of the US House of Representatives was born, Goldman Sachs issued a warning that the US government shut down for 2 to 3 weeks in November was the basic situation.

According to media reports on Thursday,Goldman Sachs pointed out that the election of a new Speaker of Parliament did not actually change its views on the government shutdown in the fourth quarter.

Although the work under the Interim Speaker of Parliament will cause uncertainty, if there is only one temporary speaker by the November 17 deadline,The most likely outcome would be another extension of the government spending budget.

Goldman Sachs believes that under the leadership of the new Speaker of Parliament,House Republicans seem likely to pressure Democrats to cut spending by up to $120 billion, which would make long-term spending agreements difficult to reach.

Disagreement over Ukraine's funding could also complicate spending negotiations. Nevertheless, recent developments in Israel have reduced the possibility of a government shutdown in November.

As far as the present is concerned, Goldman Sachs believes,The government shutdown in November is imminent, and the 2-3 week shutdown is still the basic situation. This will reduce US GDP growth by about 0.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter and maintain the same margin in the first quarter of next year.

According to CCTV news reports, on the 25th local time, US congressman Mike Johnson from Louisiana won 220 votes in the House Speaker election vote and was elected as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives. Johnson, who is currently the vice chairman of the Republican Conference of the House of Representatives, was elected as the candidate for Speaker of the House of Representatives on the evening of the 24th.

At the end of September, the US Senate passed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown at the “last minute”, extending government spending by 45 days until mid-November. The bill included $1.6 billion in disaster relief measures, but it did not include aid to Ukraine, nor did it include border security measures sought by Republicans.

editor/tolk