IEA：能源危机正威胁全球经济从疫情中复苏|IEA_新浪财经

原标题：IEA：能源危机正威胁全球经济从疫情中复苏

　　中国石化新闻网讯据油价网报道，国际能源署（IEA）10月15日警告称，能源危机已将化石燃料价格推至多年未见的高位，正威胁着全球从冠状病毒疫情大流行中复苏。

　　路透社援引IEA的话报道说，“ 8月份的暂时数据已显示，包括亚洲的日本和巴基斯坦、欧洲的德国和法国以及南美洲的巴西在内的许多国家的发电厂，对燃料油、原油和中间馏分油的需求出现了反常的高企。”

　　IEA解释说，这种更高的需求是天然气和煤炭价格高企的结果，促使许多电力公用事业公司和能源密集型行业转向石油，增加了价格上行压力，促使IEA修改其今年和明年全球石油需求的预测。

　　IEA目前预计，今年全球石油日需求将增加550万桶，明年将再增加330万桶。与此同时，如果欧佩克+继续保持对产量恢复的克制，供应可能会继续紧张。 IEA称，本季度供需缺口将为70万桶/日。

　　更糟糕的是，IEA还预测，由于欧佩克+正在提高产量，欧佩克+的备用产能将大幅下降，从今年第一季度的约900万桶/天降至明年第二季度的仅400万桶/天。所有这些都在加剧全球本已相当大的通胀压力。

　　“能源价格上涨也增加了通胀压力，再加上停电，可能导致工业活动放缓，经济复苏放缓，”IEA如是表示。

　　IEA署长法提赫•比罗尔日前对采访他的英国《金融时报》记者表示，IEA预计全球石油需求将在2025年之后不久见顶，而全球天然气需求也将在这段时间达到峰值。

　　李峻编译自油价网

　　原文如下：

　　IEA: Energy Crisis Threatens Economic Recovery

　　The energy crisis that has pushed the prices of fossil fuels to highs not seen in years is threatening the global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, the International Energy Agency has warned.

　　"Provisional August data already indicates that there is some unseasonably high demand for fuel oil, crude and middle distillates for power plants across a number of countries, including Japan and Pakistan in Asia, Germany and France in Europe and Brazil," the IEA said, as quoted by Reuters.

　　The agency explained that this higher demand was the result of high gas and coal prices that have prompted many power utilities and companies from energy-intensive sectors to switch to oil, adding to upward price pressures and prompting the IEA to revise its oil demand outlook for this year and next.

　　The IEA now sees oil demand growing by 5.5 million bpd this year and by another 3.3 million bpd next year. Supply, meanwhile, is likely to remain tight if OPEC+ continues to be disciplined about its output recovery. According to the IEA, the gap between supply and demand this quarter will be a negative 700,000 bpd.

　　What's worse, perhaps, is that the agency also predicted that OPEC+'s spare production capacity was set to decline considerably, from about 9 million bpd in the first quarter of the year to just 4 million bpd in the second quarter of next year as the group ratchets up its production.

　　All this is adding to already considerable inflationary pressures across the globe.

　　"Higher energy prices are also adding to inflationary pressures that, along with power outages, could lead to lower industrial activity and a slowdown in the economic recovery," the IEA said.

　　The warning comes a day after the IEA's chief, Fatih Birol, told the Financial Times the agency expected oil demand to peak soon after 2025. Natural gas demand, according to Birol, is also about to reach its peak around that time.