市场接近复苏关键转折点油价前景向好_新浪财经

原标题：市场接近复苏关键转折点油价前景向好

中国石化新闻网讯据世界管道8月10日报道，Roger Diwan和IHS Markit能源咨询服务公司称，石油市场已经回到相对稳定的水平，布伦特原油价格在40至45美元/桶的窄幅区间内，并有可能在2021年下半年最终突破50美元/桶大关。

IHS Markit将布伦特原油2020年平均价格预期上调至42.35新元/桶，将2021年平均价格上调至49.25新元/桶，这较5月份的预测分别上调里7.09美元/桶和5.25美元/桶。

由于受新冠肺炎疫情最严重时期的重创，石油市场目前正处于一个微妙的转折点，正在向IHS Markit预测的石油市场复苏三个阶段的第二个阶段过渡。

IHS Markit金融服务副总裁Roger Diwan表示，沙特阿拉伯及其欧佩克合作伙伴在5月和6月进行了创纪录的减产，在加速全球石油市场实现再平衡方面发挥了关键作用。随着需求从4月份的低点复苏，市场又多了一个月的时间来站稳脚跟，这些出口企业现在已从管理危机期间的直接盈余，转向管理复苏。

复苏的第二阶段是一个微妙的过渡阶段，在这个阶段，随着维也纳联盟(Vienna Alliance)和北美产油国恢复闲置供应能力，过剩的库存会减少，供应也会增加。

欧佩克+和美国将在7月和8月恢复400万桶/天的产量。与此同时，全球需求复苏正显示出明显的趋稳迹象。

IHS Markit预计，未来四个季度，布伦特原油均价将维持在40至47美元/桶的区间内，除非出现第二波冠状病毒疫情导致经济大面积停滞。

这一稳定时期将为复苏过程中更为结构性的阶段让路，在这一阶段，需求逐步正常化，经合组织商业库存使俄罗斯和海湾地区主要产油国的大部分闲置产能得以恢复，可能最早在2021年下半年开始，届时布伦特原油价格可能最终突破50美元/桶大关。

王佳晶摘译自世界管道

原文如下：

Outlook for crude oil prices strengthens through 2021 as markets approach key ‘pivot point’ of recovery

Oil markets have returned to relatively stable ground with Brent prices within a narrow US$40 – 45/bbl range and could conclusively pass the US$50/bbl mark in the second half of 2021, according to Roger Diwan and the IHS Markit Energy Advisory Service.

The IHS Markit Brent price outlook has been revised upward to an average price of S$42.35/bbl in 2020 and S$49.25/bbl in 2021 – up US$7.09/bbl and US$5.25/bbl, respectively, from the outlook in May.

Emerging bruised and battered from the worst of the COVID-19 outbreak, oil markets are now at a delicate pivot point as they transition to phase II of the IHS Markit Three Phases of Oil Markets Recovery.

“The record cuts set in motion in May and June by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners played a pivotal role in accelerating the improbable rebalancing of global oil markets. With demand recovering from April lows and after giving markets an extra month to find their footing, these exporters have now moved from managing the immediate surplus of the crisis towards managing the recovery.” – Roger Diwan, Vice President Financial Services, IHS Markit.

Phase II of the recovery (the “just-in-time oil market” phase) is a delicate transition phase in which surplus inventories are worked down in parallel with rising supply as spare supply capacity returns from Vienna Alliance and North American producers.

OPEC+ and the United States are bringing back over 4 million bpd of production in July and August. Meanwhile, the global demand recovery is showing clear signs of plateauing and Chinese crude buying has begun to soften.

Barring a large second wave of COVID-19 cases driving widespread economic shutdowns, IHS Markit expects Brent will stay within a US$40 - 47/bbl price band on average over the next four quarters.

This stabilisation period will make way for the more structural stage of the recovery process, wherein the progressive normalization of demand and OECD commercial stocks allows a return of most spare capacity in Russia and in the key producing countries in the Gulf. This could start as early as the second half of 2021, when Brent prices could conclusively pass the US$50/bbl mark.