危机中的委内瑞拉：你从何处来 要向何处去？

　　来源：财经十一人　

　　通胀率超过百分之一百万、数百万人逃离家园、两个“总统”互相攻击、国际制裁纷至沓来……委内瑞拉到底是如何走到这般田地的？眼前的死结又如何解开？

　　by Elizabeth Melimopoulos  

　　Venezuela in crisis： How did the country get here？

　　Venezuela‘s National Assembly， the opposition-controlled legislative body， declared President Nicolas Maduro a “usurper” last week， deepening the political and humanitarian crisis that has engulfed the country． 

　　上周，委内瑞拉反对派领导的国民议会宣称总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗为“篡权者”，加深了席卷全国的政治和人道主义危机。

　　The declaration came about a week after Maduro was sworn in for a controversial second six-year term following an election largely boycotted by the opposition and considered fraudulent by many within the international community．

　　宣言发布前的一周，马杜罗刚刚宣誓就职，开启为期六年的第二个总统任期。这次选举不仅在很大程度上遭到了反对党的抵制也被很多国家怀疑存在舞弊。

　　During the ceremony， President Maduro promised to “construct 21st-century socialism” and labelled his opponents as imperialists and fascists． 

　　在仪式上，马杜罗总统承诺将建设“21世纪的社会主义”，并给他的对手贴上了帝国主义者和法西斯主义者的标签。

　　Shortly after， Juan Guaido， the head of the National Assembly， said he would be ready to take over as president and hold fair elections if Venezuelans and the armed forces backed him． Guaido has called for opposition protests later this month．

　　不久后，国民议会主席胡安·瓜伊多表示，如果委内瑞拉民众和武装部队支持他，他已准备好出任临时总统，直到能够举行公开选举。随后，瓜伊多呼吁人民举行抗议活动。

　　The developments come against the backdrop of a crippling economy． The annual inflation is now over one million percent， with the price of food and medicines too high for most to obtain． Millions have fled since 2015， according to the United Nations．

　　这场政治动荡的背景，是委内瑞拉经济的大萧条。这个国家去年的通货膨胀率已经超过百分之一百万，食品和药品的价格上涨到绝大多数人都买不起的程度。据联合国统计，自2015年以来，已有数百万人逃离委内瑞拉。

　　Sanctions have also complicated the situation， and it could get worse as the United States is considering harsher sanctions that could further reduce imports of Venezuela‘s oil， and deepen the humanitarian crisis． 

　　外界的制裁使情况更加复杂。美国正在考虑加大制裁力度，进一步减少来自委内瑞拉的石油进口，此举将继续加深人道主义危机。

　　How did Venezuela get here？委内瑞拉是怎么落到这一步的？

　　2014年3月4日，数千名抗议者在委内瑞拉首都举行的反政府示威游行

　　Once considered the wealthiest country in Latin America， today， Venezuela is facing an unprecedented economic and political crisis marked by severe food and medicine shortages．

　　委内瑞拉曾被认为是拉丁美洲最富有的国家，如今却因食物和药品的严重短缺，面临着前所未有的经济和政治危机。

　　Critics of the government and members of the opposition argue that Venezuela‘s economic woes are the fruit of years of economic mismanagement， and corruption， but government supporters blame falling oil prices， international sanctions， and the country’s business elite for Venezuela‘s troubles．

　　对政府的批评者和反对派成员认为，委内瑞拉的经济困境是多年来经济管理不善和腐败的结果，但政府支持者将委内瑞拉的困境归咎于油价下跌，国际制裁和国内的商业精英们。

　　When Maduro took over as president after Hugo Chavez‘s death in 2013， the oil-reliant economy was already in trouble． When global oil prices dropped in 2014， businesses were no longer able to import goods at the same rate as before， skyrocketing prices and inflation．

　　2013年乌戈·查韦斯去世，马杜罗接任总统。那时，依赖石油的经济已陷入困境。2014年全球油价大跌，企业再也无法按以前的汇率进口商品，造成了物价飞涨和通货膨胀。

　　According to analysts， the contraction of the national and per capita gross domestic product （GDP） in Venezuela between 2013 and 2017 was more severe than that of the United States， during the Great Depression， or Russia， and Cuba following the collapse of the Soviet Union， heavily impacting the living conditions of millions．

　　据分析师称，2013年至2017年期间，委内瑞拉GDP和人均GDP的倒退程度甚至超过了大萧条时期的美国以及苏联解体后的俄罗斯和古巴，严重影响了数百万人的生存条件。

　　In 2014， thousands took to the streets to protest inflation and living conditions． The government cracked down on the protests， leaving at least 11 dead．

　　2014年，数以千计的委内瑞拉人走上街头抗议通货膨胀和生活条件。政府镇压抗议活动，至少造成11人死亡。

　　In 2015， opposition politicians won a majority in the legislature - the National Assembly - for the first time in nearly two decades． However， in 2016， Venezuela‘s government stripped the National Assembly of powers to oversee the economy， and in March 2017， the judicial branch briefly dissolved the National Assembly．

　　2015年，反对派政客在近二十年来首次赢得国民议会中的多数席位。然而，政府却在2016年剥夺了国民议会监督经济的权力，2017年3月，司法部门曾一度解散国民议会。

　　The court reversed its order due to the national and international outcry， but by then massive protests were already taking place． Protests left more than 100 dead， and 1，000 arrested． 

　　由于国内和国际上的强烈反对，法院撤销了解散过会的命令，但此时已经发生了大规模的游行抗议活动。抗议活动造成100多人死亡，1000人被捕。

　　Maduro also created the National Constituent Assembly in 2017． Stacked with Maduro supporters， the Constituent Assembly has the mandate to drafting or reforming the Constitution．

　　马杜罗还在2017年创建了制宪议会，其议员大多是马杜罗的支持者，他们的任务任务是起草和更改宪法。

　　Since then， the crisis has continued． Millions of Venezuelans have fled soaring inflation， food and medicine shortages and unemployment．

　　自那以后，危机一直持续着。数百万人逃离了这个通货膨胀、食品和医药短缺、失业率飙升的国度。

　　In 2018， Maduro won a controversial election， boycotted by the majority of the opposition． At the beginning of this year， he was sworn in， with the opposition and many within the international community calling him an illegitimate leader． The US also said it is considering further sanctions that would target the oil industry．

　　2018年，马杜罗在一场有争议的选举中获胜，选举结果遭到大多数反对派的抵制。今年年初他宣誓就职之后，反对派和国际社会的许多声音都称他为非法领导人。美国还表示正在考虑对石油业进行进一步的制裁。 

　　“[This time] It‘s more serious than I’ve heard before，” a refining industry executive familiar with the White House discussions told Reuters news agency． “They are setting the table to pull the trigger if they have to．” 

　　“这一次的情况比我之前听到的更为严重，”一位熟悉白宫内部相关讨论的炼油行业高管告诉路透社。“他们正在做准备，以便在必要时扣动扳机。”

　　But despite the challenges， Maduro currently enjoys the support of the military， and the government controls through its supporters most of the country institutions， weakening any attempt by Guaido or the National Assembly from taking power from the president．

　　尽管面临上述挑战，马杜罗目前仍然拥有来自军方的支持，政府也通过他的支持者控制了大多数国家机构，削弱了瓜伊多和国民议会从总统手中夺取权力的希望。

　　What do the government and its supporters say？政府及其支持者怎么说

　　Maduro has repetitively denied that Venezuela is facing a humanitarian crisis and sustains that the country is being attacked by the opposition， the US and its allies．

　　马杜罗一再否认委内瑞拉正面临人道主义危机，并坚持认为该国正受到反对派，美国及其盟国的攻击。

　　The president has also tried to continue with Chavez‘s policies， attempting to appeal to his supporters’ base．

　　总统还想延续查韦斯的政策，试图笼络前任总统的支持者。

　　Maduro insists that the 2018 election was legitimate and that the opposition boycotted it because it knew it would lose． Supporters also argue that the legitimacy of these elections doesn‘t depend on international recognition．

　　马杜罗坚持认为2018年的选举是合法的，反对派之所以抵制选举是因为知道自己会失败。马杜罗的支持者还认为，选举的合法性并不取决于是否获得国际认可。

　　“This is a show that is trying to destabilise the country，” Maduro said [last week]．

　　“这是一场试图破坏国家稳定的闹剧，”马杜罗上周说。

　　“They are a group of kids that control the opposition and want to play to create chaos， it‘s the same group that carried out the street protests and every day they will have a new show．”

　　“他们是一群控制着反对派的孩子，他们想要制造混乱。每天举行游行抗议的都是他们那一撮人，而且他们每天还会搞出新的花样。”

　　Supporters also believe that the opposition is trying to execute an agenda that will lead to more violence．

　　支持者还认为，反对派正在制定一项包括更多暴力行动的计划。

　　“The opposition is trying to encourage conflict， so that it could justify external intervention，” Juan Romero， a writer， analyst and a government supporter， told Al Jazeera．

　　作家，分析师和政府支持者胡安•罗梅罗告诉半岛电视台：“反对派正试图加剧冲突，以便为外部干预找个理由。”

　　“The main challenge that the president has is to keep the order with no violence，” Romero added． “It also has the challenge of not falling into isolation with the US and the OAS initiatives．”

　　“总统面临的主要挑战是维持秩序不受暴力侵害，”罗梅罗补充说。“他还要尽力不让国家被美国和美洲国家组织的制裁所孤立。”

　　In September last year， Luis Almagro， leader of the Organization of American States （OAS）， suggested the possibility of military intervention．

　　去年9月，美洲国家组织（OAS）领导人路易斯·阿尔玛格洛提出了军事干预的可能性。

　　But despite these challenges， people like Romero remain loyal to this regime and wish for it to continue．

　　但尽管面临这些挑战，像罗梅罗这样的人仍然忠于这个政权，并希望它继续下去。

　　“I have no doubts of the legitimacy of this government． The president controls all the powers， except that from the National Assembly， it also holds most of the governorates and the municipal councils． This leaves the opposition with the unique resource of violence，” he added．

　　“我对这个政府的合法性毫不怀疑。总统控制着除了国民议会之外的所有权力，还掌控着大多数省和市的议会。这使得反对派只能诉诸暴力手段。”他补充道。

　　Economic sanctions have also played a role in this conflict． Five US refiners significantly reduced or completely replaced purchases of Venezuela crude in 2018． 

　　经济制裁也在这场冲突中发挥了作用。美国五家炼油厂在2018年大幅减少或彻底取消了对委内瑞拉原油的采购。

　　Venezuela exported 500，013 barrels per day to the US last year， down from 591，422 bpd in 2017． 

　　委内瑞拉去年每天向美国出口500，013桶，低于2017年的591，422桶。

　　Sanctions have not only targetted the oil industry， but also the gold sector．

　　经济制裁不仅针对石油业，还针对黄金行业。

　　Supporters believe that the government is fighting two battles at the same time． 

　　支持者认为政府正在同时打两场战斗。

　　“Venezuela is facing two wars， one at a local level， and one abroad” Alberto Mathison， a government supporter told Al Jazeera．

　　“委内瑞拉面临两场战争，一场在本地，一场在国外，”政府支持者阿尔贝托·马西森告诉半岛电视台。

　　“The government has been constantly attacked by the transnationals and the people who manage the industry and the distribution channels， on top of that the opposition is receiving a heavy support from the global right，” Mathison said．

　　“政府一直受到跨国公司以及行业管理者和分销商的侵害，最棘手的是，反对派正在得到国际势力的大力支持，”马西森说。

　　“A global right that doesn‘t acknowledge our own law， and that aims to invade our soil，” he added． “We are resisting and we don’t know when will this stop， we hope this can be resolved in a democratic way．”

　　“这股国际势力不承认我们自己的法律，并准备侵占我们的土地，”他补充说。“我们正在抵抗，却不知道何时能停止，我们希望这一切可以通过民主的方式解决。”

　　制宪大会主席迪奥斯达多·卡贝洛（左）前任总统乌戈·查韦斯（中）现任总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗 （右）

　　What does the opposition say？反对派怎么说

　　The opposition and its supporters believe they are living under a “dictatorship”， and consider Maduro‘s government illegitimate． The group also declared itself in a state of “disobedience” in 2017．

　　反对派及其支持者认为他们生活在“独裁统治”之下，并认为马杜罗的政府是不合法的。反对派还在2017年宣布自己处于“不服从”状态。

　　Venezuela‘s opposition blames the previous government of Hugo Chavez and the current one of Maduro for the economic woes the country is facing， the corruption， the violence in the streets and the constant mismanagement． 

　　委内瑞拉的反对派把目前的经济困境归罪于前任乌戈·查韦斯和现在马杜罗执掌的政府，包括腐败，街头暴力以及一直以来的管理不善。

　　During the latest series of events， the Venezuelan opposition and a large part of the international community argued that Maduro‘s reelection last May was fraudulent and illegal due to irregularities in the process． 

　　在最近的一系列事件中，委内瑞拉反对派和国际社会的很大一部分人都认为，去年五月的总统选举存在舞弊和违规现象，因而选举结果也是非法的。

　　By the time the election took place， most of the candidates who could have contended against the president were barred from running．

　　到选举举行为止，大多数可能与总统竞争的候选人都被禁止参选。

　　The US， European Union， the Lima Group and several civil organisations， said Maduro‘s win did not meet international standards．

　　美国，欧盟，利马集团和几个民间组织表示，马杜罗的胜利不符合国际标准。

　　“The elections were not authentically free， parties and people couldn‘t compete， more than seven important parties were declared illegal， there were political prisoners who couldn’t contend and the electoral system didn‘t demonstrate its autonomy or its independence，” Jose Vicente Haro， an expert in constitutional law in Venezuela， told Al Jazeera．

　　“选举没有真正的自由，政党和人民无法参与竞争，超过七个重要政党被定义为非法，还有些人因为正以政治犯身份服刑而无法参选，选举制度也没有表现出应有的自治或独立，”委内瑞拉宪法专家哈罗告诉半岛电视台。

　　On January 10， opposition leaders branded Maduro‘s second term as illegitimate and called for the National Assembly to declare the presidency vacant．

　　1月10日，反对派领导人将马杜罗的第二任期定义为非法，并呼吁国民议会宣布总统职位空悬。

　　“If the presidency falls in an illegitimate situation， as it‘s the situation now， the Constitution clearly states that the President of the National Assembly is allowed to take power，” Haro said．

　　“如果总统职位处于非法状态，就像现在的情况这样，宪法明确规定国民议会主席可以上台，”哈罗说。

　　“But he has 30 days to announce a final election date． He is not authorised to stay in power for six years， as it would be the case with an elected president，” he added．

　　“但是国民议会主席必须在30天内宣布一个确定的选举日期。他没有被授权执政六年，只有合法选举出来的总统能这么做，”他补充说。

　　Ronal Rodriguez， a professor and researcher at the University of Rosario‘s Venezuelan Observatory in Colombia， called the situation a “huge institutional mess”．

　　哥伦比亚罗萨里奥大学委内瑞拉研究院的教授和研究员罗纳德•罗德里格斯称目前的情况是“巨大的机构混乱”。

　　“Venezuela has a government that has been sworn in but that lacks international support， except for countries like Russia， China and Turkey， and we have a National Assembly that is trying to promote a person that doesn‘t have the political experience to take power，” he said． 

　　“委内瑞拉已经有一名宣誓就职的总统，但除了俄罗斯、中国和土耳其等国家，他缺乏国际支持，而我们的国民议会试图让一个没有政治经验的人掌权，” 他说。

　　Supporters also believe the regime has left the country in miserable conditions．

　　反对派支持者还认为，政权已经使国家陷入了悲惨的境地。

　　“Life is really hard， and it‘s getting harder every day in Venezuela，” Rachid Yasbeck， a Venezuelan citizen a militant in the opposition told Al Jazeera．

　　“委内瑞拉的生活真的很艰难，而且每天都变得越来越难，”委内瑞拉公民，反对派的激进分子拉希德·亚斯贝克告诉半岛电视台。

　　“You work for a month， and you can‘t even buy or find cheese， food that is fundamental to the Venezuelan diet． Diseases are increasing to the point of having paludism and tuberculosis， hospitals are in deplorable conditions．

　　“你工作了一个月，拿到的钱却连奶酪都买不起，甚至找不到哪里能买到奶酪，这可是委内瑞拉饮食中最基本的元素。疾病正在扩散，到了引起疟疾和肺结核的程度，医院的环境却很恶劣。

　　“Our infrastructure is also in ruins， we need a change， and we think we are not too far away． We‘ve noticed internal cracks within the government and the military， the change is not too far ahead，” he added．

　　“我们的基础设施是一片废墟，我们需要改变，我们认为这并非遥不可及。我们注意到政府和军队内部已经不是铁板一块，这种变化就在我们身边，”他补充道。

　　委内瑞拉国民议会议长胡安瓜伊多在反对党支持者集会上发表讲话

　　What do Venezuelans say？委内瑞拉人怎么说

　　One of the biggest challenges facing Venezuelans is hyperinflation． According to a study released by the National Assembly， by the end of 2018， prices were doubling every 19 days on average．

　　委内瑞拉面临的最大挑战之一是恶性通货膨胀。根据国民议会发布的一项研究，截止2018年底，物价平均每19天就翻一番。

　　Many remain hopeless．

　　许多人都处于绝望状态。

　　“[Regardless of the politics] we don‘t have a good life [in Venezuela]， we are forced to leave． There are people dying because we don’t have the right medicines in the country， or food， or we don‘t have security in the streets，” Rosina Estrada， a Venezuelan citizen， told Al Jazeera．

　　“（不论政治局势如何），我们在委内瑞拉都没有安逸的生活，只能被迫离开家园。有人因为在国内得不到正确的药物或者食物而死，有人因街头治安无人维护而死，”委内瑞拉公民罗思娜·埃斯特拉达告诉半岛电视台。

　　The International Monetary Fund anticipates that the country‘s inflation rate will reach 10 million percent in 2019．

　　国际货币基金组织预计，2019年该国的通货膨胀率将达到百分之一千万。

　　Venezuela is also facing what has become the largest exodus in Latin America history． Over three million people have fled the country since 2014， and it‘s expected to reach 5.3 million by the end of 2019， according to the UN figures．

　　委内瑞拉还面临着拉丁美洲历史上最大规模的人口外流。根据联合国的数据，自2014年以来，已有300多万人逃离该国，到2019年底预计将达到530万人。

　　“The situation we are living in is unprecedented． And on top of all the domestic challenges， we are seeing a fragile government that still has some power and force， but that is slowly losing control，” Ramon Pinango， a Venezuelan sociologist， told Al Jazeera．

　　“我们目前所处的生活状况前所未有。除了国内的所有挑战之外，我们看到脆弱的政府仍然拥有一些势力和武力，但仅存的这些也正逐渐失去控制。” 委内瑞拉社会学家雷蒙告诉半岛电视台。

　　The dire situation have led many Venezuelans to question the current government， analysts say．

　　分析人士称，这种严峻形势导致许多委内瑞拉人质疑执政政府。

　　“Maduro has a big challenge internally with the current hyperinflation [and the situation]， it‘s obvious that his rule doesn’t have the support that Chavez had，” Javier Buenrostro， a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico， said．

　　墨西哥国立自治大学教授哈维尔·布埃罗斯特罗说：“马杜罗在国内面临着恶性通货膨胀和眼下政治局势的巨大挑战，显然他的统治没有像查韦斯一样得到支持。”

　　“But we can‘t forget that the opposition is not characterised for playing fair， and they haven’t found support among the citizens either，” he added．

　　“但我们不能忽视，反对派的手段也不见得光明正大，而且他们也没有得到公民的支持，”他补充说。

　　The opposition， as a group， has also showed divisions and has failed to demonstrate clear leadership in its movement． 

　　反对派内部也表现出了分歧，在运动中未能显示出其内部存在明确的领导机制。

　　One clear of example took place in 2017 when four opposition politicians broke with the official line and acknowledged the legitimacy of the Constituent Assembly， after a loss for the group in regional elections． 

　　2017年发生了一个明显的例子，四名反对派政治家在地区选举中失利后，违背反对派的官方口径，承认了制宪议会的合法性。

　　“The Chavismo not only managed to win critical elections [back then]， they also managed to put the opposition in crisis by leading them to an electoral confrontation，” Marco Terugi， an author and political analyst explained． 

　　“查韦斯主义者不仅在当时设法赢得了最重要的选举，他们还设法通过在选举时制造内部矛盾来使反对派陷入危机，”作家兼政治分析师马尔科解释道。

　　委内瑞拉面临的最大挑战之一是恶性通货膨胀

　　What is expected next？接下来会发生什么？

　　The opposition has called for a series of demonstrations， similar to the ones that took place in 2014 and 2017， on January 23． The date marks the anniversary of the end of the dictatorship of Marco Perez Jimenez．

　　反对派呼吁举行类似于2014年和2017年1月23日发生的一系列示威活动。这个日子是结束马科斯·佩雷斯·希门尼斯将军独裁统治的周年纪念日。

　　“The opposition is trying to appeal to the symbolism of that day． However， a question that remains to be asked is will [the opposition] take the risk of mobilising the streets， and facing a violent confrontation？ Will they be responsible for those victims？” Ronal Rodriguez said．

　　“反对派试图利用那个日期的象征意义。然而，是否有人考虑到，反对派会冒着动员民众，引发暴力袭击的风险？他们是否应对这些牺牲者负责？”罗纳德·罗格里兹说。

　　The international pressure is also expected to intensify， with some countries withdrawing their diplomats and others considering recognising Guaido as the president．

　　预计来自国际的压力也会加剧，一些国家撤回了外交官，另一些国家则考虑承认瓜伊多为总统。

　　According to Haro， if the National Assembly lets Guaido be sworn in as president， he must then call for elections． 

　　根据哈罗的说法，如果国民议会允许瓜伊多宣誓就任总统，那么他必须召集下一次选举。

　　“That‘s the mission of the National Assembly， to take the Venezuelans to free and clean elections， where people can freely decide，” Haro added． 

　　“让委内瑞拉人自由而公正地选举是国民议会的使命，人民应该自由地决定，”哈罗补充说。

　　But the impasse is not just political． The foreign pressure on the economy and the internal confusion are also hitting the embattled country．

　　但是，陷入僵局的不仅仅是政治。外国对经济的压迫和内部混乱也打击着已然陷入困境的委内瑞拉。

　　“The international community is increasing its pressure， but this does not mean that the regime will fall． If something has been demonstrated by the Chavismo， it is that it knows how to reinvent itself，” Rodriguez said．

　　罗德里格斯说：“国际社会正在增加其压力，但这并不意味着国家政权将会垮台。如果说查韦斯主义曾经证明了什么，那就是它知道如何重塑自身。”

　　“The final solution must come from within the country， not from outside，” he added． 

　　“最后的解决方案必须来自内部，而不是外部，”他补充道。

免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。

责任编辑：郭建