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摩根大通(JP
Morgan Chase)收购第一银行(Bank One)的计划突出表明，金融服务公司渴望扩充零售银行业务，但这对投资银行业务又意味着什么呢?
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JP
Morgan Chase's plan to buy Bank One highlights the desire for
financial services companies to bulk up their retail banking
businesses, but what does it mean for investment banking?
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当初，大通曼哈顿银行(Chase
Manhattan)的威廉•哈里森(William Harrison)决定收购JP摩根(JP
Morgan)，以便在其收购业务的基础上，创建一家强大的投资银行，摩根大通就此诞生。当时，首次公开发行、大宗股票买卖，以及安排重大交易都非常盛行。
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JP
Morgan Chase was created when William Harrison of Chase Manhattan
decided to buy JP Morgan so that - at a time when doing initial
public offerings, large stock trades, and arranging blockbuster
transactions was all the rage - he could create an investment
banking powerhouse out of his prey's operations.
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这宗价值320亿美元的交易在2000年年末完成，原以为是哈里森先生进行的最后一宗大型合并交易。
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That
bn transaction, completed at the end of 2000, was meant to be
Mr Harrison's last mega-merger.
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然而，到他着手整合两家公司时，熊市已成定局。
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However,
by the time he started integrating the two companies, the bear
market was entrenched.
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摩根大通的盈利一落千丈，股价也是如此。
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JP
Morgan's earnings collapsed, as did its stock price.
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公司采取与安然(Enron)之类蓝筹客户做生意的策略，但没有成功。当时，安然是股市的宠儿。
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And
a strategy of dealing with blue-chip clients, such as the then
stock market darling Enron, failed.
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2002年的一段时期内，合并后公司的股票交易价格，不及哈里森先生当初支付的收购价，甚至跌破了账面价值。
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For
a while in 2002, the combined company was trading for less than
the price Mr Harrison paid for the acquisition, and even dipped
below book value.
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分析师表示，如今摩根大通收购第一银行，并不表明哈里森先生要放弃投资银行业务。
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Buying
Bank One is not meant to be a sign Mr Harrison is throwing in the
towel on investment banking, analysts said.
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他只是意识到，他需要一项业务与现有业务互补，同时提高盈利的稳定性。
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He
simply realised that he needed a business that would complement
his existing lines and at the same time keep earnings more stable.
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于是，第一银行及其零售分支机构、小企业借贷、信用卡和共同基金业务就登场了。
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And
then: enter Bank One and its retail branches, small business
lending, credit card business, and mutual funds.
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但是，收购第一银行几乎不会对改善摩根大通的投资银行业务有何帮助。
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But
buying Bank One does little to improve JP Morgan's investment
banking business.
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尽管收购第一银行将改善摩根大通的资产负债状况，因为投资银行通常可利用购得的商业银行业务，向企业放贷、与企业建立业务关系、并提升这种关系在食物链上的位置，但分析师认为，这并不是摩根大通所缺乏的。
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While
the acquisition will boost JP Morgan's balance sheet, which
normally can be used to lend money to companies, build a
relationship and move it up the food chain, that was not something
analysts felt JP Morgan lacked.
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另外，提升客户在食物链上的位置所产生问题是，同客户的第一步联系往往是固定收益证券承销，而摩根大通在这项业务上的状况并不像在股票和并购业务上那样糟糕。
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Also,
the problem with pushing clients up the chain is that the first
link-up tends to be fixed-income underwriting, a business JP
Morgan is not struggling with as badly as it is with equities and
mergers and acquisitions.
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伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford
C Bernstein)分析师布拉德•欣茨(Brad Hintz)说：“此次收购不会赋予摩根大通任何相对其他公司的优势。它的市场份额一点没变。摩根大通仍将是一家崇尚并购和股票业务的公司。但这次收购的确将为其提供收益的稳定性。”
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Brad
Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C Berstein, says: "The
acquisition does not give JP Morgan any advantage over anyone
else. Market share doesn't change at all. JP Morgan will remain a
wannabe in mergers and acquisitions and equities. But what it does
do is provide a stability of earnings for them."
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任何拥有投资银行的金融服务公司都在寻求收益稳定性。例如，高盛(Goldman
Sachs)和雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)已扩充了资产管理业务，以抵消证券交易、承销及咨询业务的盈利波动。
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Stability
of earnings is something any financial services company with an
investment bank is seeking. For instance, Goldman Sachs and Lehman
Brothers have bulked up their asset management businesses to
offset swings in profits from trading, underwriting, and advisory
work.
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虽然设法稳定公司收益并推动股价上涨的策略值得称道，但欣茨先生表示，这一策略同时也使太多投资银行家忽略了这个事实，即它们的一些业务及人员水标欠佳，应该撤出市场。
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While
it is admirable to find a way to smooth out earnings and help
boost a company's stock price, Mr Hintz says that the strategy
also allows too many investment bankers to ignore the fact that
some of their operations and people are not up to scratch and
should be retired.
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他估计，有太多金融服务公司正在利用自己的招牌业务(无论是交易业务还是合并安排)，来资助其它拖累收益的部门。
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He
reckons that too many financial services companies are using their
marquee businesses - whether trading operations or arranging
mergers - to subsidise other units that drag down earnings.
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欣茨先生表示，投资银行有必要承认：它们拥有许多无望改善的低利润率业务；纯粹因为想有一流投行的魅力而保留这些业务，这个想法并不可取。
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Investment
banks, Mr Hintz says, need to admit to themselves that they own a
lot of low-margin businesses that are unlikely to get better and
that it is a bad idea to keep them simply because they want the
glamour that comes with being a premier investment bank.
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“有太多管理团队对风光的投资银行业务充满幻想，因此不愿放弃，”他说。
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"We
have too many management teams with too many dreams of investment
banking grandeur that are unwilling to step away," he says.
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“有太多人用一项业务来弥补其它业务发展的不足。”
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"Too
many people have one business that supplements the development of
other businesses."
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几位不愿具名的华尔街资深投资银行家说，应该有人收购投资银行或经纪公司，从而降低这个行业的容量。
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Several
senior Wall Street investment bankers, who declined to be named,
said someone should take capacity out of the industry through an
acquisition of an investment bank or brokerage.
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但他们不确定谁会这样做，或何时这样做。
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But
they are not sure who will do it or when.
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首席执行官们都不愿第一个行动，因为在过去10年内，大多数投资银行的合并结果都令人失望。
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No
chief executive wants to be the first to jump because most mergers
of investment banks in the last ten years have been
disappointments.
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另外一个问题是，投资银行业正在复苏。
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Another
problem is that the investment banking industry is recovering.
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对首次公开发行和并购等高利润率业务的需求正在升温。
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Demand
for high- margin work such as initial public offerings and mergers
and acquisitions is rising.
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所以说，有什么理由出售一项可望改善的业务呢？
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So
why sell a business that might improve?
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欣茨先生说：“很不幸，这是一场消耗战。”
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"Unfortunately,
it's a war of attrition," says Mr Hintz.
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“这将是一个漫长的、投行人员撤离的过程。但我们知道最终结局如何。参与者会越来越少。”
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"This
is going to be a long process of people leaving. But we know what
the end game is going to be. There are going to be fewer
players."
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译者/张征
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