瑞银：未来十年五大发展趋势|AI_新浪财经

Decade Ahead

The 5 Ds—debt, deglobalization, demographics, decarbonization, and digitalization—will be significant forces in the decade ahead that present opportunities and risks for investors. In aggregate, we expect them to lead to higher growth and periods of higher inflation over the long term.

未来十年：5D驱动力

围绕着“5D”（债务、去全球化、人口结构、去碳化、数字化）这五股力量，我们认为未来十年里它们会给投资者带来很大的机会。预计这几股力量会推动经济在长时间里保持较高的增长，同时带来阶段性的高通胀。

1.Debt: A growing concern

Fueled by the extraordinary fiscal stimulus following the COVID-19 pandemic, aging populations, and increased defense spending, government debt has grown considerably since the beginning of the decade.

With debt levels now much higher, governments have reduced capacity to deal with a future recession or inflationary shock. There is therefore a greater risk of swings in long-dated government bond yields on periodic fiscal sustainability concerns. Higher taxes could be one way of accounting for higher debt levels.

With a higher risk that governments lean on central banks to finance deficits, we advise boosting exposure to real assets (including equities, real estate, infrastructure, and gold) in portfolios, as they have a greater chance of matching or exceeding rates of inflation than cash or fixed income.

1. 债务：不断增长的担忧

疫情后的大规模财政刺激、人口老龄化以及国防支出的增加，导致各国政府债务大幅攀升。

现在债台高筑，政府在下一次经济衰退或通胀冲击面前，回旋余地就很小。如果市场开始担心财政能否持续，会让长期国债收益率时不时地大幅波动。提高税收，有可能成为填补赤字的方式。既然政府可能依赖央行去弥补赤字，投资者不妨多考虑配一些实物资产，比如股票、房产、基础设施和黄金。这些资产通常比现金或债券更能抵御通胀，甚至有机会跑赢通胀。

Deglobalization: Shifting paradigm

In recent years, the world has become less global, influenced by the pandemic, rising nationalism, geopolitical tensions, and technological changes. These factors have led countries to prioritize domestic interests, resulting in increased trade barriers and protectionist policies. The election of President Trump, with his “America First” approach, could further accelerate these changes.

Active conflicts in regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East add to this trend, creating instability and discouraging international collaboration. Technological advancements, while facilitating global communication, have also enabled more self-sufficient economic strategies.

Any increase in trade and capital flow restrictions could lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, slower global growth, and increased inflation. We also expect increased spending on defense to raise levels of debt and inflation.

Despite these challenges, deglobalization offers growth opportunities in certain sectors. As countries focus on cyber and national security, investment and innovation in these areas may rise, creating new growth avenues. Companies involved in reshoring, automation, and national security could benefit from increased demand.

2. 去全球化：格局在变

最近几年，全球化进程明显放缓，疫情只是诱因之一，民族主义情绪升温、地缘政治对立以及技术变革都在推波助澜。

很多国家现在更重视本土利益，贸易壁垒提高，保护主义显现。美国总统特朗普强调“美国优先”，某种程度上也推动了这股去全球化之风。

此外，东欧和中东地区的冲突让国际合作显得非常脆弱。别看科技给跨国协作带来了便利，它同样能让各国更容易选择自给自足的经济模式，减少对外依赖。

这种去全球化趋势可能带来一系列经济影响，包括：

• 消费者和企业成本上升；

• 全球经济增长放缓；

• 通胀压力加剧；

• 国防开支增加，进一步推高债务和通胀。

不过，去全球化也意味着新的机遇。

国家需要在网络安全和国防安全方面投入更多资金，所以相关的创新与投资会增加。特别是涉及本地化生产、自动化和国家安全的公司，可能会从中受益。

Demographics: Longevity in focus

Demographics are slow-moving, but we have already seen significant shifts in demographic patterns since the turn of the decade. According to the UN, the global population over 65 has grown by around 100 million in the past five years.

The combination of aging populations in the US, Europe, and North Asia with young and fast-growing populations in Africa and South Asia is likely to present both challenges and opportunities. How societies—individually and collectively—choose to manage migration will play an important role in determining the impact on economic growth and inflation.

For investors, we expect aging populations in the developed world to contribute to the growing emergence of a transformational innovation opportunity in the field of human longevity.

3. 人口结构变化：聚焦长寿经济

人口结构的变化虽缓慢，但其深远影响不可忽视。

联合国数据显示，过去五年，全球65岁及以上人口增加了约1亿人。

发达国家（如美国、欧洲和东北亚）正在快速老龄化，而非洲和南亚则呈现出年轻且快速增长的人口结构。这种人口格局的差异既会带来挑战，也有机会开辟新空间。社会对移民政策的管理方式将直接影响其对经济增长和通胀的长远影响。

对于投资者而言，发达国家的老龄化趋势将推动人类寿命延长领域的创新发展。这一主题在未来十年中将是重要的投资机会。

Decarbonization: Power and resources

Since the start of the decade, renewable energy has accounted for a greater share of the global energy mix, with fossil fuels accounting for a lesser share. Looking ahead, we anticipate that regulatory pressure to decarbonize will persist, and several factors could drive up the prices of scarce resources, including resource protectionism, environmental taxes, higher insurance costs, and restrictions on certain energy sources.

It remains uncertain whether societies are prepared to accept higher energy costs, especially if energy demand rises owing to increased use of artificial intelligence. Despite these challenges, the substantial investment needed to meet rising energy demand and sustainability goals could also stimulate economic growth.

We believe the biggest investment opportunity in the field is with power and resource innovation.

4. 去碳化：能源与资源的转型

可再生能源在全球能源结构中的占比持续提升，化石燃料的占比则逐渐下降。

未来，去碳化的监管压力还会进一步加大，资源保护主义、环境税、更高的保险成本，以及对某些能源的限制，都有可能推高稀缺资源的价格。

至于社会是否愿意为此承担更高的能源成本，目前还是问号，如果人工智能让能源需求进一步攀升，那么成本矛盾可能更加突出。不过，大规模投资以满足能源需求和可持续目标，也可能是拉动经济增长的动力来源之一。

我们认为，能源与资源创新领域蕴藏着巨大的投资潜力，是未来最值得关注的方向之一。

Digitalization: The AI revolution

We believe artificial intelligence could prove to be one of the most influential innovations of the century. While most market attention so far has focused on the firms enabling the technology, we ultimately expect AI to drive efficiency, innovation, and new business models across sectors, from automating routine tasks to enabling advanced data analytics.

If AI’s potential can be realized, we believe it could augur a productivity revolution, and contribute to lower prices for various goods and services and higher rates of economic growth. Historical examples can provide some context for the potential magnitude.

• The PC increased labor productivity by 18% from 1986 to 2000, and the internet by 20% from 2000 to present.

• Assuming a 15% productivity boost from AI, we estimate the value creation could amount to USD 4.4 trillion.

For investors, at a macroeconomic level, we believe the AI revolution is likely to help lower inflation, boost growth, and therefore result in higher real interest rates in the years ahead. At a company level, we see potential across the enabling, intelligence, and application layers

5. 数字化：人工智能革命

我们认为，人工智能（AI）可能是本世纪最具影响力的技术创新之一。虽然目前市场的关注点主要集中在那些提供 AI 技术支持的公司上，但从长远来看，AI 能够在各行各业提高效率，推动创新，甚至带来全新的商业模式——从自动化处理琐碎任务到深度数据分析，它都有用武之地。

如果AI的潜力能够充分发挥，它将引发一场生产力的革命。AI的广泛应用不仅能提升效率，还可能降低商品和服务的成本，进一步促进经济增长。

从历史来看，技术进步对生产率的提升效果显著：

1. 1986年至2000年间，个人电脑（PC）的普及使劳动生产率提高了18%；

2. 2000年至今，互联网技术的应用推动劳动生产率提升了20%。

如果人工智能能够实现15%的生产率增长，我们估算其潜在的价值创造规模可能高达4.4万亿美元。