全球炼油商纷纷加大原油加工量|炼油_新浪财经

原标题：全球炼油商纷纷加大原油加工量

　　中国石化新闻网讯据烃加工网报道，炼油公司官员和分析师表示，全球炼油厂正在增加原油加工量，以满足亚洲、欧洲和美国需求的同步增长，但炼油厂维护和天然气价格高企将限制第四季度的燃料供应。

　　这是因为，随着各国逐渐摆脱疫情限制，柴油和汽油等地面运输燃料的生产利润自疫情爆发以来首次出现反弹。

　　欧洲和亚洲的煤炭短缺也支撑着全球油价。煤炭短缺迫使一些燃煤发电厂改用煤油、柴油或燃料油，并在冬季供暖需求高峰到来之前囤积上述燃料。

　　今年，全球原油和主要成品油价格上涨超过了60%，达到了多年来的高点。

　　能源咨询公司FGE亚洲石油主管斯里•帕拉瓦卡拉苏表示：“炼油利润率终于找到了一些空间。”她预计，今年冬季全球的原油加工量将“大幅增加”。

　　她补充称，由于炼油商试图利用目前的高利润率，原油加工量增加将“以印度为首，随后是韩国，而日本也将增加”。

　　帕拉瓦卡拉苏表示，亚洲第四季度的原油加工量预计将达到2950万桶/天，而去年同期为2910万桶/天，2019年10 - 12月为3030万桶/天。

　　据一位知情人士透露，韩国一家大型炼油企业计划第四季度的原油加工量较第三季度增长约5%。这位知情人士拒绝透露这家炼油企业的名字。

　　印度印度斯坦石油公司的一位高管表示，该公司旗下的炼油厂正在满负荷运转。

　　炼油利润率

　　新加坡综合炼油利润率(衡量亚洲最大石油消费地区炼油厂盈利能力的指标)10月份达到了2019年9月以来的最高水平，超过了每桶8美元。

　　去年，由于疫情侵蚀了需求，炼油利润率已变为负值，并在5月份创下历史新低。

　　Refinitiv Eikon的数据显示，上周在欧洲西北部，炼油利润率达到了9美元，为2020年4月以来的最高水平，而美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油利润率目前在14美元左右，比去年同期增长了近三倍。

　　在炼油利润率飙升的背景下，主要市场的原油库存都在稳步下降。

　　根据FGE的数据，截至10月14日，来自美国、欧洲西北部、富查伊拉、新加坡和日本的综合石油产品库存降至2014年以来的最低水平。

　　国际能源署预计，第四季度全球原油加工量为7960万桶/天，高于第三季度的7790万桶/天，原油加工量增加主要来自美国和亚洲。

　　天然气价格

　　不过，高管们表示，与炼油厂维护一样，天然气价格高企预计也将减缓原油加工量的增长。

　　在欧洲，创纪录的天然气价格正迫使炼油商调整运营，以限制它们接触成本高昂的原料，比如氢气。氢气需要天然气作为原料，炼油商用氢气从石油产品中去除硫。

　　北美著名炼油商瓦莱罗能源公司的一位发言人表示： “我们和其他天然气和电力消费者一样，也受到当前能源价格高企的影响。”

　　发言人说：“为了确保我们能够继续供应我们的客户，我们已经调整了我们的运营，以最大限度地减少我们的天然气消耗，同时保持我们供应产品的能力。”

　　Energy Aspects在一份报告中称，由于炼油企业开始秋季维护，美国10月份原油加工量预计将连续第二个月下降至1500万桶/天。

　　“不过，由于炼油厂利润率比去年同期上升近9美元，且成品油库存处于正常区间的低端，10月份炼油厂产能可能意外上升，” Energy Aspects在报告补充称。

　　李峻编译自油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Global oil refiners crank up output as margins recover to pre-COVID levels

　　Oil refiners are ramping up output to meet a synchronized uptick in demand across Asia, Europe and the United States, but plant maintenance and high natural gas prices will constrain supply in the fourth quarter, company officials and analysts said.

　　This comes as profits for producing ground transportation fuels such as diesel and gasoline have rebounded globally for the first time since the start of the pandemic, as countries gradually emerge from COVID-19 movement restrictions.

　　A coal shortage across Europe and Asia, which has forced some power generators to burn kerosene, diesel or fuel oil and stock up ahead of the peak winter heating demand, is also supporting global oil prices.

　　Global crude and key refined product prices have risen more than 60% in 2021 to multi-year highs.

　　"Refining margins have finally found some ground," said Sri Paravaikkarasu, director of Asia oil at energy consultancy FGE, as she forecast a "big increase" in crude runs this winter.

　　The increase will be "led by India, followed by South Korea, while Japan will increase runs as well, as refiners try to take advantage of the current high margins", she added.

　　Asia's crude runs are expected to reach 29.5 MM barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter, versus 29.1 MMbpd a yr ago and 30.3 MMbpd over October-December in 2019, Paravaikkarasu said.

　　In South Korea, a major refiner plans to boost output in the fourth quarter by about 5% versus the third quarter, a source familiar with the matter said, declining to name the company.

　　An executive at India's Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd said the company's group refineries were operating at full capacity.

　　REFINING MARGINS

　　Singapore complex refining margins, a proxy for refiner profitability in top oil consuming region Asia, hit their highest since September 2019 above $8 a barrel this month.

　　The margins had turned negative last yr, plumbing a record low in May, as the pandemic eroded demand.

　　In Northwest Europe, refining margins topped $9 last week, the highest since April 2020, while U.S. Gulf Coast refining margins are currently around $14, up nearly three-fold from the same period a yr ago, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.

　　The spike in margins comes against the backdrop of a steady drop in inventories across key markets.

　　Combined oil product inventories from the United States, northwest Europe, Fujairah, Singapore and Japan fell to their lowest since 2014 as of Oct. 14, according to FGE.

　　The International Energy Agency sees global crude throughput at 79.6 MMbpd in fourth quarter, up from 77.9 MMbpd in the third quarter, led by the United States and Asia.

　　NATURAL GAS PRICES

　　However, like refinery maintenance, high natural gas prices too are expected to slow the ramp up in runs, executives said.

　　In Europe, record natural gas prices are forcing refiners to adjust operations to limit their exposure to costly inputs, such as hydrogen which requires natural gas as a feedstock and is used by refiners to remove sulphur from oil products.

　　"We are impacted by the current high energy prices just like any other consumer of natural gas and electric power," a spokeswoman for refiner Varo Energy said.

　　"To ensure we can continue to supply our customers, we have adjusted our operations to minimize our natural gas consumption whilst preserving our ability to supply products."

　　In the United States, crude runs are expected to drop for a second straight month in October to 15 MMbpd, as the sector starts autumn maintenance, Energy Aspects said in a note.

　　"However, with refinery margins up by nearly $9 year-over-year and product stocks at the low end of their normal range, refinery runs could surprise to the upside during October," it added.