2021年油价反弹远未结束|石油市场周报_新浪财经

原标题：2021年油价反弹远未结束

中国石化新闻网讯据油价网10月20日消息油价反弹远未结束，全球库存下降表明市场远未达到平衡。欧佩克+似乎并不急于向市场增加供应，并且产量似乎低于其自行设定的产量上限。布伦特原油现货溢价创下2013年以来最高的12个月水平，是另一个油价看涨的指标。

即使在最近几天达到几年来的最高水平后，油价在今年冬天仍有进一步上涨的空间。分析师表示，至少短期市场基本面表明如此。全球库存已降至疫情前的五年平均水平以下，库存正在枯竭，而在生产商对供应的反应减弱之际，需求出现反弹。欧洲和亚洲的能源危机，以及创纪录的天然气和煤炭价格，为未来几个月看涨石油的理由提供了更多理由，因为从天然气到燃料油和柴油等石油产品的转变已经开始，尤其是在亚洲。

一年后的石油期货曲线结构也表明，市场吃紧，原油价格还有上涨空间。

随着需求反弹，库存下跌

在需求方面，经济复苏和流动性提振了近几个月的全球石油需求，导致库存下降，使全球库存降至近期平均水平以下。

路透社市场分析师约翰·坎普指出，在美国和经合组织发达经济体作为一个整体，商业石油库存已经下降到低于新冠疫情前五年的平均水平，去年春夏的巨大库存已经逆转。

截至本周最新报告，美国商业原油库存为4.27亿桶，较今年同期的五年平均水平低约6%。EIA最新数据显示，汽油库存较五年平均水平低约2%，馏分油库存低9%，丙烷/丙烯库存较今年同期的五年平均水平低21%。

国际能源署(IEA)上周在其最新月度报告中表示，经合组织8月份的商业库存比疫情前的五年平均水平低1.62亿桶。美国、欧洲和日本的初步数据显示，9月份陆上石油库存进一步减少2300万桶。

IEA表示，从全球来看，第三季度成品油余额“显示出八年来最大的缺口，这解释了尽管原油价格大幅上涨，但9月份炼油利润率仍强劲增长的原因。”

IEA指出，与没有天然气和煤炭紧缺的“正常”市场相比，欧洲和亚洲的能源危机可能使全球石油需求增加50万桶/天，并提高了2021年和2022年的全球石油需求预测。

欧佩克＋保持市场紧张，供应滞后于需求

尽管今夏美国和亚洲爆发了新冠疫情，但石油市场的供应增长一直滞后于需求增长的步伐。

首先，从8月底到9月的大部分时间，是飓风“艾达”限制了美国从墨西哥湾的石油供应。由于壳牌运营的平台将一直保持离线状态，直到2021年底，供应要到明年年初才能恢复全部产能。

与此同时，欧佩克+组织继续保持市场吃紧，每月仅增加40万桶/日的总供应量。尽管美国和其他石油消费国呼吁开放限制，抑制高油价，尽管能源危机迫使公用事业公司在创纪录的天然气价格推动石油产品需求的情况下增加以石油为燃料的发电。

欧佩克+领导人在决定继续削减每月40万桶原油产量时指出，预计明年供应过剩，需要放眼未来两个月。

沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子上周基本上排除了联盟通过增加比计划更多的供应来应对油价上涨的可能性。

“我们的眼光应当放长远。因为如果你这么做了，并把2022年的情况考虑在内，到2022年底你将会面临大量的库存过剩，”他周四表示。

此外，产量数据表明，欧佩克+实际上的产量远低于其集体产量上限。根据彭博社的估计，如果联盟所有成员国在9月份都坚持各自的产量上限，那么该组织的总产量将比现在高出74.7万桶/天。

看起来欧佩克+并不太担心85美元的油价会导致需求减少，至少目前不会。该联盟的领导人强调了长期愿景和市场稳定性的重要性，预计2022年，他们自己的油井和美国页岩地区的供应都将增加，即使在油价80美元的情况下，美国页岩地区的资本支出也将保持不变。

“井喷式”现货溢价预示着油价将进一步走高

然而，到2021年底，供应仍然紧张，而在2021年12月布伦特合约和2022年12月合约之间的现货溢价(市场紧缩的关键指标)最近几天已跃升至每桶8美元以上。路透社援引Refinitiv Eikon的数据称，这是自2013年以来布伦特原油现货溢价幅度最大的12个月。

日本三菱日联银行(MUFG Bank)上周在其《石油市场周报》报告中表示:“能源危机正在为石油价格创造80美元/桶的底线。”

该银行的研究团队写道:“最近几个交易日布伦特原油价差的井喷表明，油价进一步走高的道路仍然稳固。”

裘寅编译自油价网

原文如下：

The 2021 Oil Price Rally Is Far From Over

•The oil price rally is far from over, with inventory drawdowns across the world suggesting the market is far from being balanced

•OPEC+ appears in no rush to add supply to markets and appears to be producing below its self-imposed production ceiling

•The steepest 12-month Brent backwardation since 2013 is yet another bullish indicator for oil prices

Even after hitting the highest levels in several years in recent days, oil prices have further room to rise this winter. At least short-term market fundamentals suggest so, analysts say. Inventories around the world have fallen to below the pre-pandemic five-year average as stocks are depleting, with demand bouncing back amid a weaker supply response from producers. The energy crunch in Europe and Asia and record-high natural gas and coal prices add more arguments to the bullish case for oil in coming months as a switch from gas to oil products such as fuel oil and diesel, especially in Asia, is already underway.

The structure of the oil futures curve a year from now also points to a tight market and headroom for higher crude prices.

Stocks Draw As Demand Rebounds

On the demand side, recovering economies and mobility have boosted global oil demand in recent months, leading to inventory drawdowns that have reduced global stocks to below recent averages.

In both the United States and the OECD developed economies as a whole, commercial oil stocks have dropped to below pre-COVID five-year averages after more than reversing the huge builds from the spring and summer last year, Reuters market analyst John Kemp notes.

As of the latest reporting week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 427 million barrels, around 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories were about 2 percent below the five-year average, distillate fuel inventories were 9 percent lower, while propane/propylene inventories were a massive 21 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, the latest EIA data showed.

In OECD, commercial stocks in August were 162 million barrels below the pre-COVID five-year average, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report last week.

Preliminary data for the U.S., Europe, and Japan show on-land industry stocks fell by a further 23 million barrels in September.

Globally, implied Q3 refined product balances “show the largest draw in eight years, which explains the strong increase in refinery margins in September despite significantly higher crude prices,” said the IEA.

The energy crisis in Europe and Asia could additionally boost global oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to a “normal” market without a natural gas and coal crunch, the agency noted, raising its 2021 and 2022 global oil demand forecasts.

Supply Lags Demand As OPEC+ Keeps Market Tight

While demand has rebounded despite the summer COVID flare-ups in the U.S. and Asia, supply additions to the oil market have been lagging behind the pace of growing demand.

First, it was Hurricane Ida that limited U.S. oil supply from the Gulf of Mexico from the end of August through most of September. Supply will not recover to its full capacity until early next year, as a Shell-operated platform will remain offline until the end of 2021.

At the same time, the OPEC+ group continues to keep the market tight, adding just 400,000 bpd each month to its overall supply. That’s despite calls from the U.S. and other consuming nations to open the taps and tame the high oil prices, and despite the energy crisis which has forced utilities to fire up oil-fueled power generation amid record-high natural gas prices, boosting demand for oil products.

OPEC+ leaders point to expected oversupply next year and to the need to look beyond the next two months in their decision to continue to reverse only 400,000 bpd per month of their cuts.

Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, last week basically ruled out the option that the alliance would respond to the oil price rally by adding more supply than planned.

“We should look way beyond the tip of our noses. Because if you do, and take ’22 into account, you will end up by end of ’22 with a huge amount of overstocks,” he said on Thursday.

Moreover, output figures point to the fact that OPEC+ is actually pumping well below its collective production ceiling. As per Bloomberg’s estimates, if all members of the alliance stuck to their respective production ceilings in September, the overall production of the group would have been 747,000 bpd higher than what it was.

It looks like OPEC+ is not too worried about demand destruction at $85 oil, at least not for now. The group’s leaders stress the importance of a longer-term vision and stability on the market, expecting increased supply in 2022 from both their own wells and from the U.S. shale patch, which appears to be maintaining its capex discipline even at $80 oil.

‘Blowout’ Backwardation Points To Even Higher Oil Prices

At the end of 2021, however, supply remains tight, while backwardation—a key indicator of a tightening market—between the December 2021 Brent contract and the December 2022 contract has jumped to above $8 per barrel in recent days. This is the steepest 12-month Brent backwardation since 2013, according to Refinitiv Eikon data cited by Reuters.

“Energy crunch is carving out an USD80/b oil floor,” Japanese MUFG Bank said in its Oil Market Weekly report last week.

“The blowout in Brent crude timespreads in recent trading days signals that the pathway [to] even higher oil prices remains firm,” the bank’s research team wrote.