醒醒吧！真正的利好只有一条！

1

今日股市在昨日美股大跌之下，反而莫名地欢乐起来了，到处都是领导的讲话，很多媒体都做了利好的解读，因为中国人大多数喜欢看领导的脸色，领导这样前后脚的集体对股市发声，再一次地体现了党对股市的关怀。

不过，市场的上涨是真金白银堆出来的。光靠几句讲话就能让股价飞起来基本上是不可能的。总体看起来，真正能落实到实处的利好并不多。

2

首先主管领导批驳了现在是“国进民退，再跌下去，我也成国企的”论调。这个批驳，可以视为是对各地准备仿效深圳拿出国资的钱或是财政的钱进行拆雷的肯定。这意味着深圳市创新救市政策获得了肯定，这看上去似乎是一个利好。

相比国家队直接拿着银子到市场里乱买一通，把各种烂股买成王的女人，现在改由各地的地方政府，在对企业经营面有更深入、更准确的了解的情况下，缓解大股东的质押股被强平的风险，及时打断因流动性缺失而造成的对企业经营危害极大的多杀多的多米诺骨牌式的下跌，在救市的准确性、资金运作的效率以及公平性上，确实有了很大的进步，非常值得肯定。但是这个救市政策与当年国家队救市一样，没有解决最关键的问题，就是何时退出，怎么退出，赚了的钱属于谁。这个问题没解决好，国家队买的时候大家都开心，国家队卖的时候大家才发现自己又当了一把韭菜！

表面上看，这个方案要么是还本付息解质押，要么是大股东质押回购深圳市政府接过去的质押股，似乎并没有对市场产生影响，但是大股东回购的钱从哪里来？一个很大的可能是，因为提高了质押率，本来需要质押一亿股才能拿到的钱，现在只需要质押7000万股就行了，大股东手里还能有3000万股。一来可以预防进一步下跌时补充质押物，二来还可以质押到更多的钱来化解流动性危机。

说到这里，实在忍不住岔开去问一下：为了防范金融机构的风险，降杠杆降到企业没有流动性了，然后再让各级政府拿着财政的钱去做抵押贷款业务，这绕了一圈是因为政府做抵押贷款比银行更专业吗？

说回来，如果大股东因此质押回来的钱能够连本带利的赚回来，那么顺利解押皆大欢喜，但是万一质押出去的钱打了水漂怎么办呢？政府如果强平，股价很可能再次下跌，算不算是国有资产流失呢？哪怕不算，政府的财政收入就损失了，当地的市民会不会有意见？你把我们盖学校建医院的钱都赔掉了？

如果不强平，国资作了股东，上市公司的经营效率是否会受影响？国资派出董事是否懂行？班子是否团结？都是问题。

如果以后市场涨了，大股东还是没有能力还款，国资直接将股票卖出获利，最终不还是二级市场的小散们再当一次韭菜么！

而且，从公平性来说，政府基金当投资方，虽然消息上比不过国家队，但是总归比小散更了解各种影响股价的政策吧。为了自己能分到更多的三分之一，各地政府会不会与上市公司合谋，释放利好把股价炒高了，让大股东能够以更好的价格回购呢？

3

再说周末，新股还是不停发，当然数量与金额都减了，但是紧跟着来一条，又再次表态支持境外企业回归A股市场，并放宽了资产重组的要求，今年前9个月的资产重组案例再次超过去年全年。

而保险资金入市，真不知道这些当年积极举牌、最后却成为“妖精”的险资，如今言犹在耳，还能有多大的热情去自行选股？如果自行选股没得到王石之流的高管同意，不是会有市场禁入的风险？罚款的风险以及强平的风险？

所以思来想去，真实的利好只有一条，那就是，因为中弘股份股价持续20个交易日低于一元而退市。因为中弘退市最大的经验教训就是，你要不停地高送转，填权填不上去的话，就有退市的风险了，看以后还有哪家公司敢玩10送30这样的把戏？3元的股，别送1送3了，就是1送2，每股就变成1元了，有个风吹草动你就得担心退市了。而如果不送转，3元的要跌到1元，还有很多时间可以熬呢！

4

今日听说，有领导讨论救市需要多少钱，说是要好几万亿，其实不用，制度好了，炒作的人没市场了，真正的投资者都会来。比如沪深两大交易所当年花了多少力气去监管高送转，效果都不明显。但是一元以下退市这个事真来了，估计这病就迅速好了。

还有造假欺骗投资者这事，比如长生生物，如果国家罚款91亿元，全部用于赔偿接种疫苗的受害人以及上当受骗的中小散户（金额完全够了，按流通股东最近放量换手阶段的平均价20多元粗略估计，如果每股亏损20元，4亿流通股，只要赔偿80亿元就够了）。这样投资者不用担心整天踩雷，股市有什么道理狂跌呢？

平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金 小程序~

双语阅读~

wake up! There is only one real benefit!

Today, the stock market fell sharply yesterday, but it was inexplicably happy. There were leaders’ speeches everywhere. Many media outlets made good explanations because most Chinese people like to look at the leadership’s face and lead the collective The sound of the stock market once again reflects the party’s concern for the stock market.

However, the rise in the market is piled up in real money. It is basically impossible to make stock prices fly by a few sentences. In general, there are not many positive benefits that can be implemented.

First of all, the supervisors refuted the argument that “the country is retreating, and then falling, and I am also a state-owned enterprise”. This rebuttal can be regarded as an affirmation of the demolition of the local governments to imitate the money of Shenzhen's leading state-owned assets or financial money. This means that the Shenzhen City policy's innovative rescue policy has been affirmed, which seems to be a positive.

Compared with the national team directly holding the money to buy a pass in the market, the women who bought all kinds of bad stocks into a king, now changed to local governments everywhere, in the case of a deeper and more accurate understanding of the business side of the business To alleviate the risk of the pledge shares of the major shareholders being forced to break, and timely interrupt the domino-type decline caused by the lack of liquidity, which is extremely harmful to the business operation, the accuracy of the rescue and the efficiency of capital operation. 

As well as fairness, there has indeed been a lot of progress, which is very worthy of recognition. However, this bailout policy is the same as the rescue of the national team in the same year. It does not solve the most critical problem, that is, when to withdraw, how to withdraw, and who the money earned belongs to. 

This problem was not solved. Everyone was happy when the national team bought it. When the national team sold it, everyone found out that they had become a leek!

On the surface, this plan is ultimately the repurchase of the pledge shares received by the Shenzhen government from the major shareholders. It does not seem to have an impact on the market, but where does the big shareholder buy back? A big possibility is that because of the increase in the pledge rate, the money that would have to be pledged to get 100 million shares can only be pledge of 70 million shares, and the majority shareholder can still have 30 million shares. One can prevent further declines from supplementing pledges, and secondly pledge more money to resolve liquidity crises. 

Speaking of this, I can't help but ask: In order to prevent the risks of financial institutions, the leverage is reduced to the company's lack of liquidity, and then the governments at all levels take the financial money to do the mortgage business. Was it because the government made mortgages more professional than banks?

To put it bluntly, if the big shareholder’s money pledged back can be earned back even if it’s profitable, then the smooth demolition is great, but what if the money pledges is squandered? If the government is strong, the stock price is likely to fall again. Is it considered a loss of state-owned assets? Even if it is not counted, the government’s fiscal revenue will be lost. Will the local citizens have any opinions? Have you lost the money we built to build a hospital?

If it is not strong, the state capital will be a shareholder, will the operating efficiency of the listed company be affected? Does the state-owned directors know how to do it? Is the team united? It's all a problem.

If the market rises in the future, the major shareholders still have no ability to repay, and the state-owned assets will directly sell the stocks for profit. In the end, it will not be a small dish in the secondary market.

Moreover, in terms of fairness, government funds as investors, although the news is better than the national team, but always know more about the various policies affecting stock prices. In order to be able to get more than one-third of them, will local governments collude with listed companies and release the profits to raise the stock price so that the major shareholders can buy back at a better price?

On the weekends, new shares are still not issued. Of course, the quantity and amount have been reduced, but following one, they once again expressed their support for overseas companies to return to the A-share market, and relaxed the requirements for asset restructuring, the assets of the first nine months of this year. The restructuring case once again exceeded last year.

As insurance funds entered the market, I really don't know that these years were actively placarded, but in the end they became the "fairy" insurance capital. Now, the words are still in the ear, how much enthusiasm can you choose to buy stocks yourself? If the stock picking is not approved by the executives of Wang Shizhi, is there no risk of market ban? The risk of fines and the risk of being flat?

So thinking about it, there is only one real benefit, that is, because Zhonghong’s share price has been delisted for less than one dollar for 20 trading days. Because Zhonghong’s biggest experience in delisting is that you have to keep sending high and returning to fill up the right, there is a risk of delisting. After seeing which company dares to play 10 to 30? 3 yuan of stocks, do not send 1 to 3, is 1 to 2, each share becomes 1 yuan, there is a wind and grass you have to worry about delisting. And if you don't send or transfer, 3 yuan will fall to 1 yuan, there is still a lot of time to smash it!

Today, I heard that there are leaders who discuss how much money is needed to save the market. It is said that it is worth several trillions. In fact, no, the system is good, the speculators have no market, and the real investors will come. For example, the two exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen spent a lot of effort to supervise the high transfer, the effect is not obvious. However, the fact that the market has been delisted below one yuan is really coming. 

It is estimated that the disease will be rapid. There are also fraudulent deceptions of investors, such as longevity organisms, if the state is fined 9.1 billion yuan, all of which are used to compensate victims of vaccination and small and medium-sized retail investors who have been deceived (the amount is completed enough, according to the recent heavy-duty turnover of tradable shareholders) The average price of 20 yuan is roughly estimated. If the loss per share is 20 yuan and 400 million shares are tradable, it is enough to pay 8 billion yuan.) So investors don't have to worry about tramping all day, what is the reason for the stock market to fall?

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