2024年第二季度中国宏观金融分析报告（中英文摘要）|国债_新浪财经

2024年第二季度中国宏观金融分析报告

中国社会科学院金融研究所宏观金融分析团队

经济增长显韧性社会活力待增强

2024年第二季度，全球宏观经济金融形势呈现中长期全球通胀中枢上调和美国降息预期增强并存的特点。由于地缘政治风险和产业链割裂带来的供给冲击，发达经济体在通胀回落过程中表现为强粘性，中长期的通胀中枢可能上调。6月份美国经济数据走弱，美国经济增长在高利率的约束下面临动力不足的困境。在这一背景下，预计美联储货币政策决策将更加偏重于经济增长，而非执着于通胀指标，加之欧央行已经在6月份开启降息周期，市场对于美联储降息的预期升温。此外，二季度全球不确定性仍在加剧，“大选年”的政治变更、地缘政治风险、气候灾害等冲击下贵金属价格创新高，大宗商品整体高位震荡。

全球宏观金融需要警惕两个风险：第一，美国大选年的政策走向存在非常大的不确定性，需要防范来自美国政策的外溢冲击；第二，全球政府债务创纪录，当下经济增速承压、高利率环境和债务高企的情况下，2024大选年更可能产生债务风险。

对于人民币汇率而言，美元指数在二季度保持强势，人民币兑美元汇率阶段性承压，预计伴随美联储降息通道的打开，人民币会企稳回升。人民币对一篮子货币的汇率指数保持稳定，随着二十届三中全会的召开，全面深化改革进一步推进，有望温和升值。

2024年上半年，得益于宏观政策协同发力和新旧动能平稳转换，中国经济奋力实现5%的中高速增长，展现出较强发展韧性。一是内需结构有所改善，耐用品消费和制造业投资表现亮眼。二是新产业新动能加快成长，新质生产力不断壮大。三是外贸出口量质齐升，贸易伙伴更趋多元化，机电产品竞争优势明显。

受有效需求不足和金融数据“挤水分”影响，以及经济结构转型引发信贷依赖度下降，当前货币和信贷指标整体偏弱。我国处于金融周期下行阶段，中央财政适度扩张和政府积极化解风险有助于强化经济韧性。随着地方债务风险化解稳步推进，融资平台公司的债务扩张速度放缓，付息压力有所缓释，重组转型进程加快。房地产市场边际改善，一线城市楼市成交放量，二手房销售和房价改善明显，房企投融资能力有所修复。

党的二十届三中全会对进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化作出战略部署，政策重心在于以全面深化改革打通制度性梗阻，积极扩大国内需求，激发和增强社会活力。一是谋划新一轮财税体制改革，理顺央地政府财政关系和债务结构，激发地方政府积极性。二是以短期利率调控走廊和二级市场国债买卖为抓手，加快货币政策框架改革，适应社融增长新常态。三是尽快加大房地产市场救市力度，避免“挤牙膏式”政策放松。

本季度专题报告重点关注央行买卖国债。央行二级市场买卖国债是促进财政政策、货币政策协调配合的重要工具，是当前健全宏观经济治理体系的重要抓手，对于实现经济高质量发展、推进中国式现代化具有重要意义。

从历史上看，可持续的公共信用体系是“东西方金融大分流”乃至“经济大分流”出现的重要原因。国债从近代早期开始就是推动各国社会经济发展的“发动机”，以及连接一国财政和货币的重要纽带。

深入考察各国（经济体）央行买卖国债的百年历程，可以得到如下经验：第一，各国央行在二级市场买卖国债是“常规操作”，但也有极个别情况下一些国家也曾在一级市场进行操作；第二，各国央行买卖国债的主要目的在2008年国际金融危机以后呈现趋同之势，都从调节市场流动性转向了刺激经济增长，财政味道渐浓。第三，近些年来央行买卖国债的工具箱极大丰富，既有数量型，也有价格型。其中最主要的工具是量化宽松。

面临有效需求不足、居民和企业资产负债表“躺平”的局面，必须充分发挥我国国家信用的优势，充分发挥央行买卖国债的国家治理作用。一是要适度提高债务上限，财政多发，央行多买。二是要实施“短期多发（买）长，长期多发（买）短”的策略，构建一个以短期国债为主、长期国债为辅的有活力的国债市场。三是要建立更加高效的国债管理体系：建立专司国债政策的专门机构、进一步健全国债收益率曲线。

CHINA MACRO FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 2024Q2

CMFA Team at Institute of Finance & Banking,

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Economic Growth Shows Resilience,

While Social Vitality Needs Enhancement

In the second quarter of 2024, the global macroeconomic and financial landscape is characterized by a rise in the medium to long-term global inflation rate alongside increasing expectations of rate cuts in the United States. Geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions have led to strong inflation persistence in developed economies, suggesting a potential increase in the long-term inflation baseline. With weak economic data in June, the U.S. faces growth challenges under high-interest rates. Against this backdrop, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will prioritize economic growth over inflation targets. As the European Central Bank has already initiated a rate-cutting cycle in June, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have intensified. Furthermore, global uncertainties are escalating in the second quarter, with political changes in an election year, geopolitical risks, and climate disasters driving precious metals to record highs and causing significant volatility in commodity prices.

There are two primary risks for global macro-finance: First, the policy direction during the U.S. election year is highly uncertain, necessitating caution against external shocks from U.S. policy. Second, global government debt levels have reached new highs. With economic growth under pressure, high-interest rates, and significant debt burdens, the 2024 election year could heighten debt risks.

Regarding the RMB exchange rate, the U.S. dollar index remained strong in the second quarter, putting pressure on the RMB against the dollar. However, as the Fed's rate cut cycle opens, the RMB is expected to stabilize and recover. The RMB index against a basket of currencies remains stable, and with the convening of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee, further promotion of comprehensive reform is anticipated to lead to moderate appreciation.

The first half of 2024 saw China's economy striving to achieve 5% mid-to-high growth, showcasing strong resilience, thanks to the synergy of macro policies and a smooth transition between old and new growth drivers. Firstly, the internal demand structure improved, with durable goods consumption and manufacturing investment performing well. Secondly, new industries and new momentum grew rapidly, and new productive forces continued to strengthen. Thirdly, the quality and quantity of foreign trade exports increased, with trade partners becoming more diversified and mechanical and electrical products maintaining competitive advantages.

Due to insufficient effective demand and the “deflation” of financial data, as well as the economic structural transformation leading to a decrease in credit dependency, current monetary and credit metrics are generally weak. China is in a downward phase of the financial cycle, and moderate fiscal expansion and proactive risk mitigation by the government can enhance economic resilience. As local debt risk resolution progresses steadily, the debt expansion speed of financing platform companies slows, interest payment pressure eases, and the restructuring and transformation process accelerates. Marginal improvements are noted in the real estate market, with primary city property transactions increasing, significant improvements in the sales and prices of second-hand homes, and a recovery in the financing abilities of property enterprises.

The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee laid out strategic plans for further deepening reforms and advancing Chinese modernization. The policy focus includes breaking systemic barriers through comprehensive reforms, actively expanding domestic demand, and stimulating and enhancing societal vitality. Firstly, a new round of fiscal and tax system reforms is envisaged, aimed at rationalizing the fiscal relationship between central and local governments and optimizing debt structures to inspire local government initiatives. Secondly, by leveraging short-term interest rate control corridors and secondary market treasury transactions, monetary policy framework reforms will accelerate to adapt to the new normal of social financing growth. Thirdly, measures to rescue the real estate market need to be intensified quickly to avoid “toothpaste-like” policy easing.

This quarter's special report focuses on central bank transactions in government bonds. Central bank operations in the secondary market are crucial instruments for aligning fiscal and monetary policies, essential for a robust macroeconomic governance framework, and critical to achieving high-quality economic growth and advancing Chinese modernization.

Historically, a sustainable public credit system has been a major factor in the Great Financial Divergence between East and West, and indeed, the Great Divergence. Since the early modern period, government bonds have been pivotal engines driving socioeconomic development and key conduits linking a nation's fiscal and monetary realms.

An in-depth examination of the century-long history of central banks' government bond transactions across various economies provides several insights: First, central bank operations in the secondary market are standard practice, with occasional interventions in the primary market under exceptional circumstances. Second, since the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks' primary goal in these transactions has shifted from managing market liquidity to stimulating economic growth, infusing a more fiscal character into their operations. Third, in recent years, the toolbox for central bank government bond transactions has significantly expanded, encompassing both quantity and price tools, with quantitative easing being predominant.

In the face of insufficient effective demand and the stagnation of household and corporate balance sheets, it is imperative to leverage our national credit advantages and the governance role of central bank government bond transactions. Firstly, raise the debt ceiling moderately, issuing more fiscal instruments and increasing central bank purchases. Secondly, implement a strategy of "issuing (buying) long-term bonds in the short-term, and short-term bonds in the long-term," creating a dynamic government bond market dominated by short-term bonds with long-term bonds as support. Thirdly, establish a more efficient government bond management system by creating a dedicated institution for government bond policy and further refining the government bond yield curve.