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中国的高级官员表示，政府正在准备采取措施，给迅速发展的经济降温，其中可能包括提高利率。
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The
Chinese authorities are preparing measures to cool their booming
economy, including a possible rise in interest rates, according to
senior officials.
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国务院发展研究中心主任王梦奎表示，中国正遭受通货膨胀和投资过热的困扰，并且有可能在2004年全年出现贸易逆差。“根据我的观察，如有需要，就有可能提高贷款利率，尤其是中长期贷款利率，”王先生说道，“调整利率将对通货膨胀产生较好的影响。”
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Wang
Mengkui, director of the Development Research Centre of the State
Council (the cabinet), said China was suffering from inflation and
overheated investment, and would probably register a trade deficit
for the whole of 2004. "According to my observation, if there
is a need, there is a possibility to raise the lending rates,
especially those rates on mid and long-term loans," Mr Wang
said. "The adjustment of interest rates would have a
relatively good impact on inflation."
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自1995年以来，中国政府一直反对升息。但有迹象表明，政府的这一立场首次开始弱化，而王先生的评论与此相一致。中国官方媒体引用中国央行中国人民银行副行长吴晓灵的话说，如果通货膨胀率超过银行贷款利率，那么当局将“不会坐视不管”。
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Mr
Wang's comments coincided with signs that Beijing is easing its
longstanding opposition to raising interest rates for the first
time since 1995. Wu Xiaoling, deputy governor of the People's Bank
of China, the central bank, was quoted by state media as saying
authorities would "not turn a blind eye" if inflation
surpassed bank lending rates.
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中国政府设定的银行一年期贷款利率为5.31%，而一年期存款利率为1.98%。今年第一季，通胀压力的主要指标消费物价指数(CPI)年率上升2.8%。
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The
administratively set one-year lending rate at Chinese banks is
5.31 per cent, while the one-year deposit rate is 1.98 per cent.
The CPI, main indicator of inflationary pressures, was 2.8 per
cent up year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.
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王先生预计，用消费物价指数来衡量，全年价格上涨幅度将达到5%，高于政府3%的预测。通货膨胀主要是原材料和能源价格上涨引起，但许多制成品依然供应过剩，意味着通货膨胀“将不会成为大问题”，他说道。
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Mr
Wang expects price rises, as measured by the CPI, to reach 5 per
cent for the full year, higher than Beijing's prediction of 3 per
cent. Inflation was being caused mainly by rising prices of raw
materials and energy but many manufactured goods remained in
oversupply, meaning that inflation "will not become a big
problem", he said.
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他表示，政府部门抑制投资失控的努力，也将减轻基础设施和建设项目所用原材料的通胀压力。
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Efforts
by government departments to tame runaway investment would also
reduce inflationary pressures on raw materials used in
infrastructure and construction projects, he said.
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“我的预测是，今年全年的国内生产总值将增长8.5%，”王先生表示。他还指出，他的预测高于7%的官方预测。第一季度中国官方公布的经济增长率达到了9.7%。
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"I
would like to predict the whole year's gross domestic product will
rise 8.5 per cent," Mr Wang said, noting that his prediction
was higher than the 7 per cent official forecast. In the first
quarter the economy grew by an official 9.7 per cent.
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王先生表示，人民币面临的升值压力正在减弱，部分原因是国内出现了通货膨胀，部分是因为中国已连续三个月出现贸易逆差。
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Mr
Wang said pressures on the renminbi to appreciate were abating
partly because of domestic inflation and partly because China has
run a trade deficit for three consecutive months.
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他说，中国的贸易逆差现象今年全年都有可能得以继续，从而成为自1993年以来的首次全年逆差。“中国目前的外汇储备已逾4000亿美元，我们目前用不着这么多。（贸易）逆差没什么可怕的。即使是我们的外汇储备下降，也不是什么很严重的问题。”
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It
was possible, he said, that the trade deficit could continue for
all this year, resulting in the first full-year shortfall since
1993. "China has got foreign currency reserves of over $400bn
and we can't use that much. A [trade] deficit is not something to
be afraid of. If our reserves fall, it will not be a serious
problem."
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他说，中国外汇储备下降，对美国经济不会造成严重影响，尽管中国政府已将大部分日益增长的外汇储备用于购买美国国债，有助于美国将利率保持在低水平。
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He
said the impact on the US economy of falling Chinese reserves
would not be serious, despite the fact that Beijing has used much
of its mounting reserves to buy US Treasuries, helping keep US
rates low.
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王先生表示，中国将不会采取激烈的措施为经济降温，宁愿采取较小的步骤控制投资。
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Mr
Wang said China would not take drastic measures to cool the
economy, preferring smaller steps all aimed at reining in
investment.
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中国将终止旨在刺激煤炭等大宗商品出口的优惠政策，这将有助于确保国内市场的供应并降低价格压力。
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It
would end preferential policies intended to spur the export of
commodities such as coal, which would help ensure supply and
reduce prices pressures in the domestic market.
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最后，政府有关部门正在考虑修改评估地方政府官员政绩的标准。原来强调经济增长的标准可能会得到调整，并将卫生、教育和环境的进步等其他标准囊括其中。
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Lastly,
authorities were considering altering criteria by which the
careers of local officials are judged. The emphasis on growth
could be moderated by including other criteria such as progress on
health, education and the environment.
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译者/李裕
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