决策者 | 中国经济持续崛起，有效证伪悲观预测_新浪财经

转自：CGTN

编者按：决策者是一个全球平台，供决策者分享他们对影响当今世界之事件的见解。巴西经济学家保罗·诺盖拉·巴蒂斯塔·朱尼尔曾任金砖国家新开发银行副行长和国际货币基金组织巴西执行董事。文章仅代表作者的观点，而非本台观点。

China’s decade-long economic rise continues unabated, despite the ill-will and pessimistic predictions of sharp slow-down and even crisis coming from Western institutions and economists. And, more importantly, despite the economic sanctions and political pressure applied by the United States in recent years, the Chinese economy remains remarkably resilient. It has slowed down but is still expanding at an appreciable pace of about 5 percent per year. Betting against China has proven an ill-fated endeavor.

尽管某些西方机构和经济学家不怀好意，悲观地预测中国经济将急剧放缓甚至出现危机，但中国十多年来的经济增长势头依然不减。更重要的是，尽管近年来美国对华施加经济制裁和政治压力，但中国经济依然保持着惊人的韧性。中国经济虽然增速有所放缓，但仍以每年约 5%的可观速度增长。事实证明，押注中国失败的人注定会以失败告终。

Take for instance data on recent economic performance and the short-term predictions by the IMF. What stands out is that China’s GDP growth continues to exceed that of the high-income countries by a considerable margin. In 2023, China rose by 5.2 percent in real terms compared to 2022. Developed economies, by 1.6 percent. For 2024, the IMF forecasts a moderate slowdown in China, to 4.6 percent. High-income nations are expected to grow by 1.5 percent. Chinese GDP growth is also higher than that of other emerging market and developing countries in 2023 and, thus, China’s share of the world economy rose again, to the dismay of those who projected or wished for a reversal of this trend. This reversal may yet happen someday but it is not on the horizon. Short-term projections published by the IMF, for instance, still show China rising relative to the rest of the world.

以近期经济数据和国际货币基金组织的短期预测为例。较为突出的一点是，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）增长继续大幅超过高收入国家。与2022年相比，2023 年中国经济实际增长5.2%，发达经济体增长率为1.6%。国际货币基金组织预测，2024年中国经济增速将小幅放缓，降至4.6%，而高收入国家预计将增长1.5%。2023年，中国GDP增速也高于其他新兴市场和发展中国家。因此，中国在世界经济中所占比例再次上升，这让那些预测或希望这一趋势逆转的人大失所望。这种逆转也许有朝一日会发生，但那一天还远未到来。例如，国际货币基金组织发布的短期预测显示，中国占世界经济的比例相对于其他国家仍在上升。

Historically, relative economic size has always been a key factor behind national power. The U.S. is acutely aware of this. It sees China as its main competitor, even its enemy. It can be said, in my view, that China was not seeking a confrontation with the West. China seems to have believed, or hoped, that it would continue on the peaceful rise initiated in the last decades of the 20th century. To no avail. The rise could be peaceful if and only if it did not threaten to displace the U.S. from its cherished dominant position. In the last decade or so, the U.S. came to perceive this possibility as a real one.

纵观历史，一个国家的相对经济规模一直是其综合国力的重要标志。美国清楚地认识到了这一点。它将中国视为主要竞争对手，甚至是敌人。在我看来，中国并不寻求与西方对抗。中国更倾向于认为，或者说希望，自己将沿着20世纪末开辟的和平崛起道路继续前进。但这或许只是一厢情愿。只有当这种崛起不“威胁”到美国所珍视的主导地位时，和平才有可能实现。在过去十年左右的时间里，美国开始将中国的崛起视为一种实质性威胁。

Wishes clashed with reality, as they often do. Whether Americans accept it or not, the U.S. is no longer the unchallenged nation and largest economy. China’s GDP, measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP), has been for a decade or more larger than that of the U.S. On a PPP basis, China currently represents about 19 percent of the world economy; the U.S., around 15 percent. Per capita GDP is much higher in the U.S., but in terms of absolute economic size China has overtaken the U.S.

理想与现实之间往往存在差距。无论美国人是否愿意承认，美国已不再是那个地位无可撼动的超级大国和最强经济体。按购买力平价计算，中国的GDP十多年来一直高于美国。按购买力平价计算，中国目前占世界经济的19%，而美国约占15%。美国的人均GDP要比中国高得多，但就绝对经济规模而言，中国已超过美国。

If the benchmark is market-exchange rate based GDP, the U.S. is still larger than China, given its higher level of economic development. However, this yardstick, though often preferred in the Western media, is misleading. This is because exchange rates are volatile; they fluctuate in nominal and real terms, often sharply. By definition, market-exchange rate based GDPs rise and fall, reflecting these fluctuations. If a currency appreciates, the countries' GDP measured in dollars increases. These variations have little to do with actual real economic growth.

如果以按市场汇率计算的GDP为基准，由于美国的经济发展水平较高，美国的经济总量仍然大于中国。然而，这种衡量标准虽然常受西方媒体的青睐，但却具有误导性。原因在于名义汇率和实际汇率都容易波动，而且波动往往非常剧烈。顾名思义，按市场汇率计算的GDP也会有升有降，反映汇率的波动。如果一国货币相对于美元升值，以美元计算的GDP就会增加。这些变动与实际的经济增长关系不大。

Those who are not acquainted with American mentality may find it a little strange, even childish, that such rankings are a matter of concern in the U.S. However, since the first half of the 20th century, when the U.S. overtook the UK and other European nations as the main economic power, Americans have grown accustomed to being number one. As time went by, this status became for them a natural feature of the world. I happened to live in the U.S. when China became the number one economy on a PPP basis. Americans were in a state of shock. The sudden realization that they had lost the pole position led to unconstructive reactions. For instance, an attempt was routinely made to sweep PPP comparisons under the rug. More seriously, the loss of the pole position helped feed the bipartisan and widespread fear that China constituted a major threat to the U.S. in economic, political, and military terms.

不了解美国心态的人可能会觉得有点奇怪，甚至觉得幼稚，怎么这种排名还会在美国引发担忧。然而，自 20 世纪上半叶美国超越英国和其他欧洲国家成为主要经济大国以来，美国人已经习惯于排名第一。随着时间的推移，这种地位对他们来说仿佛成了天经地义之事。当中国成为按购买力平价计算的第一大经济体时，我正好在美国生活。当时美国人都惊呆了。他们突然意识到自己失去了领头羊地位，于是做出了一些不具有建设性的举动。例如，美国常常试图忽略基于购买力平价的国力比较。更严重的是，失去领先地位助长了美国两党普遍存在的恐惧心理，即中国在经济、政治和军事方面对美国构成了重大威胁。

The prevailing attitude to China’s economic rise is understandable, but irrational to some extent. Facts are facts. We may struggle against unpleasant ones and wish away inconvenient realities, but in the end, this is useless and normally counterproductive. Reality will prevail over subjective preferences.

这种对于中国经济崛起的普遍态度虽可理解，但在某种程度上也显得非理性。事实终归是事实。人可以努力抗拒不悦之真相，或欲逃避不便之现实，但终究是徒劳的，往往会适得其反。现实终将压倒一切主观臆断。

A state of denial is harmful in more than one way. It impedes those who are delusional to react objectively and constructively to realities they dislike. And, worse, it leads them to attempt to harm competitors by means of boycotts, sanctions, and persecution. Now, what does this achieve? The rising nation is bound to take retaliatory measures itself. And even if it does not do so, the degree of economic interconnectedness creates a situation where sanctions against a large economy inevitably boomerang on the sanctioning power. Growth in the rising power will likely slow down but so will the growth of the economy that initiates sanctions.

不承认现实所造成的危害很多。它使得沉浸于幻想之中的人难以客观和建设性的态度面对不喜欢的现实，更糟糕的是，它会导致这些人试图通过抵制、制裁和迫害等手段来伤害竞争对手。这样做的结果是什么呢？崛起中的国家势必会采取反制措施。即使不采取反制措施，经济的高度相互依存性也意味着：对一个大型经济体的制裁必然会对制裁国自身产生反噬效果。崛起国的经济增长或许会放缓，但发起制裁的国家的经济增长也会受到拖累。

The U.S. establishment no doubt realizes this. Nevertheless, it presses on with the hostile approach against China and, for that matter, against any nation that it perceives as an actual or potential threat to its economic and strategic hegemony. Geopolitical considerations prevail over economic calculations.

美国政府无疑意识到了这一点。尽管如此，它仍继续对中国采取敌对态度，甚至对任何它认为对其经济和战略霸权构成实际或潜在威胁的国家都采取敌对态度。这背后的地缘政治考量显然要高于经济考量。

For centuries, the West has become used, “addicted” is perhaps a better word, to dictate terms to all other countries. Most of the world was drawn into its sphere of dominance, becoming colonies or semi-colonies. The West ruled the rest. In China, Europeans and Americans imposed “the century of humiliation” that lasted from the mid-19th century to the mid-20th century. This epoch in world history is now gone. A multipolar world is emerging whether the West likes it or not.

几个世纪以来，西方国家已经习惯于对所有其他国家发号施令，用“上瘾”这个词来形容或许更恰当。世界上大多数国家都被纳入其统治范围，成为殖民地或半殖民地，形成了“西方统治其他国家”的格局。从 19 世纪中叶到 20 世纪中叶，欧美列强令中国蒙受“百年屈辱”。然而，这一时代已成往事。无论西方是否乐见，一个多极化的世界正在形成。

Ideally, Americans and Europeans would come to terms with this new world and revise their behavior, becoming more respectful of other nations and less prone to interfere with the way they run their affairs. To judge from recent events, however, this positive expectation seems far from assured, to say the least. On the whole, an attitude of militant resistance to international trends seems to prevail in the West. It's a harbinger of difficult times for all.

理想的情况是，美国人和欧洲人能够接受并适应这个新世界，并改变自己的行为方式，变得更加尊重其他国家，减少对别国内政的干涉。但从近期的事件来看，这种乐观预期基本落空。总体而言，西方国家对当前国际趋势存在较强的抵触情绪。这预示着所有国家都将经历一段困难时期。