Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) share price is up 35% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 26% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 30% lower than it was three years ago.
Since the stock has added US$161m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last year American Eagle Outfitters grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 81%. It's fair to say that the share price gain of 35% did not keep pace with the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market isn't as excited about American Eagle Outfitters as it was before. This could be an opportunity.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
NYSE:AEO Earnings Per Share Growth August 26th 2024
We know that American Eagle Outfitters has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, American Eagle Outfitters' TSR for the last 1 year was 38%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that American Eagle Outfitters shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 38% over one year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 8% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand American Eagle Outfitters better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that American Eagle Outfitters is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course American Eagle Outfitters may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
VIP课程推荐
APP专享直播
热门推荐
收起24小时滚动播报最新的财经资讯和视频,更多粉丝福利扫描二维码关注(sinafinance)