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原标题 逆变器出海大势所趋,国产逆变乘风破浪
来源 东吴证券
主要观点
价差缩小+MPPT赋能,组串式性价比凸显:逆变器是将光伏直流电转换为交流的工具,主要分为组串式、集中式、微型逆变器三种,其中组串式逆变器毛利率远高于集中式。组串式和集中式最核心的差异在于MPPT数量,随着光伏产业链的不断降本,大功率组串式和集中式逆变器4-5分/W左右的价差的影响可被多路MPPT发电量增益所抵消,组串式性价比逐渐凸显。
行业拐点:出口加速,组串崛起:从逆变器近十年的发展格局来看,先后经历了欧洲垄断——中欧竞赛——全球一超多强的阶段,行业的集中度在不断提升。未来行业有两大趋势:第一,国内龙头出海是必然趋势,核心驱动力在于海外市场相较国内高毛利率、高增速、高价值量,且海外企业市场空间高达370亿+,占比60%+,可替代空间较大。近年国内逆变器龙头出口加速背后逻辑在于:1)欧美龙头让出市场份额;2)华为出口受限被迫让出市场份额;3)国内企业售价比国外低50%以上,性价比凸显,以价换量策略。今年国内海外出货同比持平,阳光、锦浪等龙头逆势高增50%+,明年海外整体40-50%增长,预计龙头增速超100%。第二,组串式崛起:渗透电站+分布式比例提升,组串式占比迅速提升,19年全球组串式占比在60%,预计20年进一步提升至70%。
中国逆变器龙头加冕之时——阳光、锦浪、固德威:阳光电源是老牌逆变器龙头企业,业内二十余年沉淀,产品类别包括组串式和集中式,近年出口提速,2019年逆变器出货17GW+,位居全球第二,其中海外出货9GW,同增接近90%,20年1-5月阳光(含印度工厂)出货已经超过华为位居第一。锦浪科技是国内组串式龙头企业,海外布局多点开花,公司产品遍及全球100多个地区,出口市占率来看近两年提升迅速,20年1-5月累计出口金额位居行业前三,具有很强的成长性。固德威是光伏+储能逆变器双龙头,20年1-5月累计出口金额位居行业前五,2019年储能逆变器出货行业第一,逆变器功率小,毛利率高,海外占比持续提升。上能电气是光伏逆变器领先者,市场份额亚洲前三,储能业务爆发带来新增长动力,海外欧洲、中东市场逐步打开放量可期。
投资建议:逆变器行业性机会来临,组串式占比迅速提高,国内逆变器企业加速出海抢占海外市场,未来几年海外增长确定性强,重点推荐:阳光电源(逆变器绝对龙头)、锦浪科技(小而美的组串式龙头),关注固德威(光伏+储能逆变器各表一枝)、上能电气(光伏逆变器龙头,储能放量)。平价时代到来,能源革命开始,需求持续高增长值得期待;大尺寸/9BB等新技术加快应用龙头份额快速提升,强者恒强明显,继续强推光伏龙头!光伏持续强烈推荐:隆基股份、通威股份、福斯特、晶澳科技、爱旭股份、福莱特;关注:亚玛顿、东方日升、捷佳伟创等。
风险提示:竞争加剧、电网消纳问题限制、海外拓展不及预期
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