石油巨头即将发布逾13年来最高现金流|天然气_新浪财经

原标题：石油巨头即将发布逾13年来最高现金流

　　中国石化新闻网讯据钻机地带10月26日消息，西方世界最大的石油公司可能刚刚创造了自大萧条以来最多的现金，投资者即将发现他们将如何利用这些现金。

　　据彭博社分析师预测，五大石油巨头——从周四公布收益的荷兰皇家壳牌公司和道达尔开始——将报告第三季度的总自由现金流量约为 290 亿美元。这将是自2008年初以来的最高水平。对原油的强劲需求、天然气和化工产品价格的飙升以及炼油业务的反弹可能是主要驱动因素。

　　在痛苦的2020年之后，大型石油公司被迫削减成本和员工，搁置支出计划并承担债务，一系列乐观的结果将有助于巩固其显著好转。壳牌和bp甚至采取了削减股息的措施。股东们现在急切地想知道，这些公司是会通过提高股息或股票回购来回报他们的意外之财，还是用这些钱来生产更多的石油和天然气。

　　Janus Henderson Investors驻丹佛分析师诺亚·巴雷特(Noah Barrett)表示:“我们看到自由现金流方面的业绩非常强劲。”该公司管理着4280亿美元资产。“但在业绩电话会议上，我们需要着重讨论这一趋势是否可持续，或者主要企业是否在耗尽核心业务的资金。”

　　埃克森美孚和雪佛龙将于周五公布财报， bp将于11月2日公布财报。

　　今年迄今为止，上市石油公司的高管们一直热衷于加强他们对支出纪律的承诺，即便是在大宗商品价格飙升的情况下。在以往的繁荣周期中，如果大宗商品价格飙升，就会促使大量新支出用于新的大型项目。相反，他们把重点放在偿还债务和向股东返还现金上。在疫情爆发之前，他们的财务表现就已经疲弱了10年，再加上能源转型带来的新风险。

　　高盛分析师在一份报告中写道，埃克森美孚的投资者将关注本季度“实现股东回报增量的路径”。据摩根士丹利称，雪佛龙还有可能增加股票回购。Jefferies分析师贾科莫•罗密欧(Giacomo Romeo)在一份研究报告中写道，bp可能会宣布在第三季度价值6亿美元的增量回购，而壳牌可能会推迟到今年最后一个季度偿还更多债务。法国道达尔已经承诺在第四季度回购15亿美元的股票。

　　尽管如此，回购和派息并不是这些现金的唯一选择。随着欧洲和亚洲天然气短缺，美国和印度呼吁欧佩克+生产更多的石油，石油巨头计划2022年的资本预算，开采更多化石燃料的利润激励正在增加。汇丰银行(HSBC)表示，高管们应谨慎对待对股东回报的过度承诺，因为好景可能不长。

　　伦敦分析师戈登•格雷(Gordon Gray)在一份报告中称，"尽管该行业近期财务前景强劲，但我们不相信推动最新涨势的油气价格是可持续的。"他指出，能源转型风险导致估值持续面临阻力。

　　需注意事项:

　　天然气的繁荣

　　欧洲天然气平均价格较上季度上涨了近一倍，而美国亨利天然气枢纽价格上涨了45%。

　　埃克森美孚在9月30日的最新交易中表示，从天然气业务中获利约7亿美元。

　　液化天然气销售的收益往往落后于市场几个月，这意味着极高的现货价格可能只有在第四季度才能实现。

　　精炼反弹

　　据摩根士丹利的数据，墨西哥湾沿岸裂解价差较上季度增长11%，欧洲则增长16%。

　　埃克森美孚的下游部门应该会结束连续四个季度的亏损。

　　航空燃油需求正在改善，提振了雪佛龙在西海岸的大型炼油厂。

　　化工产品走强

　　从第二季度开始，更高的天然气液体投入成本可能会侵蚀化工产品的利润，但用于生产塑料的石化产品的需求仍然很高，这对埃克森和壳牌尤其有利。

　　用于水管和窗框的聚氯乙烯(PVC)在墨西哥湾沿岸的价格在第二季度创下历史新高。

　　交易

　　壳牌和BP拥有庞大的交易业务，每年可以增加数十亿美元的利润。

　　在天然气和电力价格大幅波动的情况下，壳牌似乎站在了正确的一边。该公司表示，其天然气交易部门的表现好于第二季度。

　　BP没有披露其交易部门的任何最新情况，但其天然气和电力部门今年开局良好，原因是德克萨斯州冬季严寒导致价格飙升。

　　石油

　　第三季度布伦特原油均价为每桶73.26美元，而第二季度为每桶69美元。

　　当飓风“艾达”破坏了重要的石油基础设施，迫使一些设施关闭数周时，墨西哥湾的石油生产受到了重大打击。

　　由于飓风的影响，油服公司贝克休斯公司和哈里伯顿公司的收益受到打击。

　　裘寅编译自钻机地带

　　原文如下：

　　Big Oil About to Post Highest Cash Flow in 13+ Years

　　The Western world’s biggest oil companies likely just generated more cash than at any time since the Great Recession, and investors are about to find out what they’ll do with it.

　　The five supermajors -- starting with Royal Dutch Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE, who release earnings on Thursday -- will report about $29 billion in free cash flow combined in the third quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the most since the beginning of 2008. Strong demand for crude, surging prices for natural gas and chemicals, and a rebound in the refining business are likely to be the main drivers.

　　An upbeat set of results would help cement a remarkable turnaround after a painful 2020, in which Big Oil was forced to cut costs and employees, shelve spending plans and take on debt.

　　Shell and BP Plc even resorted to cutting their vaunted dividends. Shareholders are now anxious to see whether the companies will return their windfalls via higher dividends or stock buybacks -- or use them to produce more oil and gas.

　　“We’re seeing really strong results on the free cash flow side,” said Noah Barrett, a Denver-based analyst at Janus Henderson Investors, which has $428 billion under management. “But on the earnings calls we need to hammer on whether it’s sustainable, or whether the majors are starving the core business of capital.”

　　Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. report on Friday, with BP bookending the results on Nov. 2.

　　Executives at publicly traded oil companies have so far this year been keen to reinforce their commitment to spending discipline, even in the face of soaring commodity prices that would have prompted a raft of fresh spending on new megaprojects in previous boom cycles. Instead they’re focused on paying down debt and returning cash to shareholders following a decade of weak financial performance even before the pandemic, plus emerging risks posed by the energy transition.

　　As such, Exxon investors will be focused on the “path forward for incremental shareholder returns” this quarter, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note. Chevron also has the potential to increase its share buyback, according to Morgan Stanley. BP could announce $600 million worth of incremental buybacks in the third quarter, while Shell might hold off on further repayments until the final quarter of the year, Jefferies analyst Giacomo Romeo wrote in a research note. France’s TotalEnergies has already promised to buy back $1.5 billion of shares in the fourth quarter.

　　Still, buybacks and dividends aren’t the only option for all that cash. With Europe and Asia short of gas, and the U.S. and India calling for OPEC+ to produce more oil, the profit incentive to drill for more fossil fuels is increasing as the majors plan their 2022 capital budgets.

　　Executives should be cautious in overcommitting to shareholder returns because the good times might not last, according to HSBC.

　　“As strong as the near-term financial outlook is for the sector, we aren’t convinced the oil and gas prices driving the latest rally are sustainable,” London-based analyst Gordon Gray said in a note, citing continued valuation headwinds over energy transition risks.

　　What to Watch For:

　　Gas boom

　　Average European gas prices almost doubled quarter on quarter, while in the U.S., Henry Hub jumped 45%.

　　Exxon signaled a gain of about $700 million from natural gas in a Sept. 30 trading update.

　　Gains from liquefied natural gas sales often trail the market by a few months, meaning sky-high spot prices may only feed through in 4Q.

　　Refining rebound

　　Gulf Coast crack spreads increased 11% quarter on quarter, while in Europe they rose 16%, according to Morgan Stanley.

　　Exxon’s downstream division should end four consecutive quarters of losses.

　　Jet fuel demand is improving, boosting Chevron’s large West Coast refineries.

　　Chemicals strength

　　Higher natural gas liquid-input costs may erode chemical margins from the second quarter, but demand remains high for petrochemicals that go into plastics, benefiting Exxon and Shell in particular.

　　Gulf Coast prices for PVC, used in water pipes and window frames, touched a record high in the second quarter.

　　Trading

　　Shell and BP have vast trading operations that can add billions to their bottom lines every year.

　　Shell appears to have been on the right side of big swings in gas and power prices, with the company flagging that its gas trading desk performed better than in the second quarter.

　　BP hasn’t disclosed any updates on its trading unit, but its gas and power desks did get off to a good start this year due to a winter freeze in Texas that sent prices soaring.

　　Oil

　　Brent crude averaged $73.26 a barrel in the third quarter, compared with $69 a barrel in the second quarter.

　　Production from the Gulf of Mexico took a major hit when Hurricane Ida damaged key oil infrastructure, forcing some facilities to shut down for weeks.

　　Oilfield servicers Baker Hughes Co. and Halliburton Co. suffered earnings knocks due to the hurricane.