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Japan 日本
The TOPIX (+2.7%) rallied strongly at the end of the week as signs that US interest rates were close to a peak helped lift exporters. Earlier in the week the market had remained jittery over interest rates, both at home and in the US. On the domestic front, there has been a host of secondary dilutive equity issue
s such as Elpida, JAL, Nippon Mining and Makino Milling, as well as continuous scrutiny by politicians and the media on BoJ governor Fukui regarding his investments with jailed investor Murakami. However, investors shrugged off such bad news, as concerns on slowdown in the global economy eased off. By sector, commodity, financials and real estate outperformed, while rubber and retail underperformed. 1Q results by retailers have been slightly weaker than expected, which seems to have led to the underperformance, but this seems mainly on the back of poor weather. For the first 6 months, small cap stocks significantly underperformed large caps, but there seem to be some signs of bottoming out in the relative performance of small caps, as valuations have become more attractive.
The 2Q Tankan survey from the BoJ showed that the headline business conditions index for large manufacturers rose one point to 21 in June in line with consensus. Japanese firms expect a further rise to 22 in September. Firms' FY2006 capex plans were revised up considerably to 6.2%oYoY. The unemployment rate declined further in May to 4.0% from 4.1% in the previous three months. Among employment, employed workers at firms increased 0.5% MoM and came back to the historical high level recorded in February.
美国息口快将见顶刺激出口股造好，上周尾段东京第一市场指数大幅回升2.7%。初段市场一直对日本国内和美国息口忧心忡忡。国内方面，Elpida、日本航空(JAL)、Nippon Mining和Makino Milling等公司相继发行股份造成摊薄效应，政客及媒体亦紧盯日本央行行长福井俊彦与被捕投资经理村上世彰之间的轇轕。不过，随着全球经济放缓隐忧减退，投资者都将这些坏消息抛诸脑后。
按类别分析，商品、金融及房地产股造好，橡胶及零售股则表现欠佳。零售商第一季业绩略逊预期，似是股价表现不济的原因，但业绩应主要归咎于天气恶劣。今年头六个月小型股走势远逊大型股，但随着股值吸引力加强，情况已有扭转迹象。
日本央行第二季短观调查结果显示，6月份大型制造商标题营商信心指数上升1点至21点，符合一般预期。日本企业预计9月份会进一步上升至22点。2006财年的企业资本开支计划按年增长大幅调高至6.2%。5月份失业率由之前三个月的4.1%进一步下降至4.0%。就业数据方面，企业聘用员工数目较上月增加0.5%，重返2月份历史高位。
(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)
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