IEA：全球天然气危机正在蔓延到石油市场|IEA_新浪财经

原标题：IEA：全球天然气危机正在蔓延到石油市场

　　中国石化新闻网讯据彭博社10月14日消息，国际能源署表示，欧洲和亚洲的天然气短缺正在提振石油需求，加剧了原油市场本已经相当大的供应缺口。

　　原油价格飙升至每桶80美元以上，为三年来最高水平，因为交易员预计，创纪录的天然气价格将刺激其他燃料的消费，特别是用于发电的燃料。国际能源署周四表示，这种情况已经发生，未来六个月平均每天石油使用量可能增加约50万桶。

　　国际能源署表示：“全球经济复苏导致天然气、液化天然气和煤炭供应严重短缺，这引发了能源供应价格的急剧上涨，并引发了对石油产品的大规模转向。” “8月份的临时数据已经表明，许多国家对发电厂的燃料油、原油和中间馏分油的需求异常高。”

　　为工业化国家提供能源政策建议的该机构的最新分析显示，天然气的严重短缺正蔓延到其他市场和更广泛的经济领域。这场危机正在加深当前的石油供应短缺，可能会破坏欧佩克逐步恢复闲置生产的谨慎计划。它搅乱了能源密集型产业，并有可能抑制GDP增长并推高通胀。

　　国际能源署将其今年的需求增长预估上调30万桶/天，至550万桶/天，并将2022年的需求增长预测小幅上调至330万桶/天。该机构表示，油气转换的影响将主要体现在本季度和下一季度。

　　天然气危机对石油消费并不完全有利。由于供应链问题和能源成本上升，导致GDP前景疲软，从而抑制了国际能源署需求估计的增加。

　　国际能源署表示：“价格飙升已经席卷了整个全球能源链，能源价格上涨也加剧了通胀压力，加上停电，这可能导致工业活动下降和经济复苏放缓。”

　　该机构指出，石油输出国组织及其盟友坚持将产量提高40万桶/日的计划，“尽管主要消费国呼吁大幅增加产量”。

　　国际能源署表示，随着欧佩克+继续放松削减措施以及美国产量从艾达飓风造成的破坏中恢复，从9月到年底，全球石油产量将每天增加约270万桶。国际能源署表示，即使增加了这些储备，市场在今年剩余时间内仍将出现每天约70万桶的供应短缺，然后在2022年初恢复供应过剩。

　　祝精燕摘译自彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Global Gas Crisis Is Spilling Over Into Oil Markets, IEA Says

　　Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, the International Energy Agency said.

　　Crude has surged above $80 a barrel, the highest in three years, as traders anticipated that record gas prices would stimulate consumption of other fuels, particularly for power generation. That’s already happening and could add about 500,000 barrels a day to oil use on average over the coming six months, the IEA said on Thursday.

　　“An acute shortage of natural gas, LNG and coal supplies stemming from the gathering global economic recovery has sparked a precipitous run-up in prices for energy supplies and is triggering a massive switch to oil products,” the IEA said. “Provisional August data already indicates that there is some unseasonably high demand for fuel oil, crude and middle distillates for power plants across a number of countries.”

　　The latest analysis from the agency, which advises industrialized countries on energy policy, shows how the acute shortage of natural gas is spilling over into other markets and the broader economy. The crisis is deepening the current oil-supply deficit, potentially disrupting OPEC’s careful plan to gradually revive idle production. It’s roiling energy-intensive industries and threatens to curb GDP growth and boost inflation.

　　The IEA raised its estimate for demand growth this year by 300,000 barrels a day to 5.5 million barrels a day, and increased it slightly for 2022 to 3.3 million barrels a day. The effect of oil-gas switching will mostly be felt this quarter and next, the agency said.

　　The gas crisis isn’t entirely a net positive for oil consumption. The increase in the IEA’s demand estimates was tempered by a weaker outlook for GDP resulting mainly from supply-chain issues and rising energy costs.

　　“The surge in prices has swept through the entire global energy chain,” the IEA said. “Higher energy prices are also adding to inflationary pressures that, along with power outages, could lead to lower industrial activity and a slowdown in the economic recovery.”

　　The agency noted that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies stuck to their plan to boost production by 400,000 barrels a day “despite calls from major consuming countries for a more substantial increase.”

　　Global oil production will rise by about 2.7 million barrels a day from September to the end of the year as OPEC+ continues to unwind its cuts and U.S. output recovers from the damage caused by Hurricane Ida, the IEA said. Even with those additions, the market will be in a supply deficit of about 700,000 barrels a day for the rest of this year, before flipping back into surplus in early 2022, the IEA said.