地方国库现金管理对区域经济的影响分析（附英文版）|商业银行_新浪财经

　　地方国库现金管理是一项重要的财政管理活动。本文通过理论分析与实证检验，探讨了国库现金管理向实体经济传导的机制，分析了国库现金管理对区域经济的影响。研究认为，地方国库现金管理能够有效调节地区经济，促进区域信贷资金投放，助力实体经济融资。在地方国库现金管理中扩大区域性商业银行的参与规模，将有助于进一步发挥其区域经济调节功能。

　　引言

　　国库现金管理是指财政部门在满足国库支付需求、保障国库资金安全的前提下，为提高财政资金使用效益，运用金融工具有效运作库款的财政管理活动。国库现金管理作为积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策有机结合、协调配合的重要政策工具，在提高财政资金使用效益、拓宽金融机构融资渠道、减少因库款波动而引起市场流动性变化等方面发挥着重要作用。

　　2006年，财政部联合中国人民银行印发《中央国库现金管理暂行办法》（财库〔2006〕37号），正式开展中央国库现金管理业务。近年来，我国国库管理改革不断深化，国库现金使用效益持续提高。2014年底，财政部联合中国人民银行印发《地方国库现金管理试点办法》（财库〔2014〕183号），正式开启地方国库现金管理试点，并明确存款银行取得地方国库定期存款，应当以可流通国债为质押。2015年7月，财政部、中国人民银行联合发布《关于中央和地方国库现金管理商业银行定期存款质押品管理有关事宜的通知》（财库〔2015〕129号），将地方政府债纳入国库现金管理合格担保品范畴。担保品管理是国库现金管理风险管理的重要保障，是有效化解和防范财政风险的关键（张婷等，2015）。

　　地方国库现金管理业务自开展以来，有效盘活了财政沉淀资金，并通过银行存款和货币投放机制对宏观经济稳定及地方产业发展起到重要支撑作用。中国经济进入新常态，对财政资金管理也提出了更高要求，地方国库业务内生优化的需求也愈发凸显。

　　本文结合地方国库现金管理实践，通过探讨地方国库现金管理与区域实体经济融资之间的关系，明确地方国库现金管理业务的优化方向，一方面为财政部门进一步扩大国库资金的运用提供依据，另一方面为深化财政政策实施的支持工作提供参考，助力地方国库现金管理业务提质增效。

　　文献综述

　　国库现金属于央行资产负债表中的负债，其投放和收回操作类似于基础货币的投放和收回，因此国库现金管理操作能够对银行体系流动性产生较大影响，其管理目标应充分考虑与货币政策的协调一致。我国国库现金管理分为中央级与省级，以3个月、6个月期限的商业银行定期存款为主，对基础货币投放量产生直接影响。一方面，国库现金管理操作规模可以作为货币政策操作的重要观测指标，从而实现国库现金管理与公开市场操作的协调配合；另一方面，通过地方国库现金管理与银行体系流动性管理的协调，有助于减少地方国库现金管理操作对银行体系流动性造成的冲击。由于地方国库现金管理在我国应用较晚，加之公开数据较少，地方国库现金管理的相关研究相对有限。既有研究主要分为以下两类。

　　一类主要集中于对国库资金变动总量的分析。这类研究依托央行资产负债表的变化，讨论国库库款变动对货币供应量的影响。陈建奇和张原（2010）指出国库现金转存商业银行提高了商业银行定期存款的比重，从而影响商业银行的储备水平与信贷能力。此外，国库现金增加将引起利率水平上升，并且通过信贷传导机制使得货币供给水平产生波动。张晓斌（2016）基于央行资产负债表结构构建了国库库存变动对货币供应量变化的影响分析框架，从基础货币、狭义货币、广义货币三个层次展开分析。李艳军（2017）对比外汇占款、国库现金管理以及现有货币政策工具在货币投放过程中的差异，提出国库现金管理可以作为流动性投放的有效替代。付英俊和李丽丽（2017）研究发现目前我国国库现金管理对货币供给的影响较小，但随着地方国库现金管理的启动，国库现金管理对货币供给的影响将愈加显著。李俊生等（2020）的研究表明财政收支活动和国库现金管理活动对市场货币流通体系形成了强大的影响力，并且影响程度处于增长趋势。

　　另一类主要结合实践经验，讨论地方国库现金管理的区域性特征。侯胜洪等（2018）通过理论分析归纳，提出地方国库现金管理投放对区域法人机构银行和非法人银行分支机构的影响存在差异，并预测地区内法人机构银行的数量会影响地方国库现金管理操作对区域宏观流动性的冲击程度。王深德（2019）研究河南省国库及金融企业数据发现，国库资金净流出对商业银行存款具有显著影响，并且这一过程受到银行体系信用扩张的影响，具有一定的滞后性。此外，也有一些研究通过对地方国库现金管理实践的归纳总结提出优化方案。其中，国库资金的分配安排是关注重点。傅强（2014）强调地方国库现金管理应以安全性和流动性为首要目标，对可投资对象与范围搭建科学的评价体系。

　　通过总结现有文献可以发现，地方国库现金管理的相关研究较少且存在一定的不足。首先，从总量角度展开的研究，虽然能够比较准确地捕捉到国库现金管理业务与货币政策之间的关系，但是缺少关于国库现金管理在区域经济发展中所发挥的补充完善作用的分析。其次，从实践角度进行归纳的研究能够敏锐地提出地方国库现金管理业务存在区域性特征，但观测样本受限，结论存在一定的局限性，并且当前亟待通过实践对地方国库现金管理的招投标评价体系进行丰富和完善。因此，本研究以近年来全国范围内的地方国库现金管理数据为基础，从微观视角分析地方国库现金管理对区域经济的影响，强调地方国库现金管理业务对货币政策的补充作用，并就各地地方国库现金管理调控区域经济的效率展开讨论，为国库资金的招投标评价体系完善提供参考，回应实践的迫切需求，具有一定的理论意义与实践参考价值。

　　地方国库现金管理对实体经济的影响路径分析

　　货币投放向实体经济的传导主要基于两种渠道：一是银行间市场渠道；二是信贷渠道。前者主要依靠银行间市场交易，使货币投放由大型银行向中小银行传导，再由中小银行进行信贷投放。后者则由主要依靠商业银行的资产负债管理，在获得基础货币后通过内部调拨于信贷部门直接进行信用创造。以中期借贷便利（MLF）操作为例，当央行通过MLF向参与银行释放流动性后，参与银行一方面可以通过在银行间市场拆借、回购，以及购买同业负债的方式向其他银行传递流动性，为整个银行体系的信贷扩张提供支持；另一方面，参与银行在获得流动性之后也可以用于补充存款准备金，直接进行信用创造，实现货币政策向实体经济的传导。

　　在地方国库现金管理实践中，资金由央行经理的国库账户流转至商业银行的准备金账户，相当于央行基础货币投放，商业银行存款将增加，实质上实现了资金由央行向商业银行的流动，在对实体经济产生影响的过程中，与货币政策操作有一定的相似性。地方国库现金管理业务的参与主体为所在地区的全国性银行分支机构、地方城市商业银行（以下简称“城商行”）、农村商业银行（以下简称“农商行”）与农村信用合作社等，其传导路径以直接信用创造为主。一方面，全国性银行分支机构不能直接参与银行间市场交易；另一方面，区域性城商行和农商行等机构在银行间市场的参与程度也有限。因此，地方国库现金管理向参与银行投放的资金通过银行间市场扩散的能力有限，主要是补充银行存款准备金进行信贷创造。

　　与此同时，由于参与地方国库现金管理业务的机构包含许多区域性商业银行，由地方国库现金管理资金派生的信贷会呈现区域性聚集的特点。地方国库现金管理业务释放的资金规模与MLF操作处于同一数量级，均为每月数千亿元左右。MLF操作的对手方主要为全国性商业银行，所以资金投放所带来的影响是全局性的，表现为明显的溢出效应；地方国库现金管理业务的对手方大多为区域性商业银行，信贷创造多集中于所在地区，因此地方国库现金管理业务投放资金所带来的影响主要是区域性的。二者侧重点不同。

　　根据上述分析，本文提出以下两点研究假设：

　　假设一：地方国库现金管理业务投放的资金通过补充商业银行存款准备金，促使商业银行资产负债表扩张、增加信贷投放量，进而影响实体经济融资规模。

　　假设二：地方国库现金管理业务的参与方包含许多区域性商业银行，所以对实体经济的影响呈现显著的区域性效应。

　　地方国库现金管理对区域信贷规模影响的实证检验

　　（一）研究设计与样本选择

　　上文从理论角度分析了地方国库现金管理业务向实体经济传导的机制，但分析仍有待数据的佐证。因此，本部分依托公开数据，对上文提出的地方国库现金管理的传导路径进行实证检验，进一步论证地方国库现金管理业务对区域实体经济的影响。

　　假设一强调地方国库现金管理业务对地区信贷的影响，所以实证模型的被解释变量为地区信贷规模，而关键解释变量则是国库现金管理业务余额。本研究从公开渠道收集并整理了2019年1月至2021年12月地方国库现金管理业务余额数据，涵盖23个地区主体1，共36期样本。数据为面板结构，因此采用面板回归模型。实证方程设计如下：

　　在上式中，为所在地区当期的信贷规模，用所在地区当月人民币贷款余额表示。

　　TCM（Treasury Cash Management）代表所在地区当期地方国库现金管理业务余额。由于地方国库现金管理投放资金对实体经济的影响是一个逐渐传导的过程，所以TCM对信贷规模的影响具有滞后性，因而需在回归模型中引入TCM的滞后项。经综合考虑，选择两个月作为滞后期2，即n取值为2。

　　MLF为当期中期借贷便利业务余额，同样取两阶滞后进行分析。这一方面是为了控制宏观货币政策的影响，另一方面是为了将国库现金管理与货币政策对区域信贷增长的影响进行对比。

　　为控制变量。通过分析和梳理我国地方信贷投放规模影响因素的相关文献，本文选择以下三个因素作为控制变量：一是选用上一年度地区生产总值规模（GDP），控制区域经济差异的影响；二是选用当期制造业采购经理指数（PMI）控制企业投资行为的干扰；三是引入当月银行间市场1天质押式回购加权平均利率（R001）作为流动性的控制变量。此外，为控制宏观周期波动与季节性因素的影响，在模型中引入年度固定效应和季度固定效应，并对所有经济变量都取自然对数。

　　在数据来源方面，TCM等地方国库现金管理业务相关数据通过中国人民银行网站公布的各地区金融机构财政性存款数据计算得到；信贷规模、GDP、PMI、MLF、R001等其他经济指标和金融市场指标来源于万得（Wind）。

　　各变量的描述性统计如表1所示。由表1可见：地方国库现金管理整体规模可观，平均每个地区的业务余额在1500亿元左右；地方国库现金管理的平均值与最大值相差较大，分布呈现一定的偏态，取自然对数可以在一定程度上缓解这一问题。

　　（二）实证结果

　　回归的实证结果如表2所示。其中，回归Ⅰ只包含国库现金管理业务余额这一个解释变量。在该回归结果中，国库现金管理投放规模的各阶系数都为正，并且都在1%的检验水平上显著，表明地方国库现金管理业务对地区的信贷投放存在显著的正向影响。二阶滞后量系数显著为正，表明正向影响持续两个月以上。各阶滞后变量的系数都明显大于首期，表明国库现金管理业务对地区信贷的影响逐步扩大。

　　作为对比，回归Ⅱ中引入MLF业务余额。由回归Ⅱ的实证结果可见，地方国库现金管理业务投放规模对区域信贷投放量的影响在加入MLF规模变量后，仍然在1%的检验水平上显著，进一步说明国库现金管理业务对地区信贷存在正向影响，并表明MLF业务更直接地促进了整个银行体系的信贷扩张，而国库现金管理业务能够对区域性经济发挥显著的传导作用，说明地方国库现金管理与货币政策操作之间并非简单的替代关系，而是在不同维度的互补关系。

　　作为控制变量，地区GDP规模对地区信贷规模的回归系数显著为正，表明该变量能够有效识别各地区之间经济发展水平的差异。PMI和R001的系数都不显著，表明宏观经济指标对区域性经济活动的解释力相对较弱。在上述两组回归分析中，经调整的R统计量都在0.95以上，说明模型设定较准确，能够有效描述地区信贷规模的变化。

　　由上述实证结果可以发现，无论是否加入MLF规模变量，国库现金管理业务对地区信贷都存在显著的正向影响。由于地方国库现金管理业务的参与机构以地区性金融机构为主，投放资金能有效传导至区域的经济活动中，因此能够显著影响区域实体经济，促进地区信贷规模的提升。

　　区域性商业银行参与程度对地方国库现金管理的

　　影响分析

　　上文提出地方国库现金管理投放的流动性能够直达地区经济，其原因在于参与这一业务的银行包括许多区域性商业银行，如地方城商行、农商行。这些机构的参与程度必然会对地方国库现金管理向地区经济传导的效率产生影响。下文从这一角度开展实证检验，验证区域性银行参与情况的差异对地方国库资金传导效率的影响，探索如何利用地方国库现金管理的传导机制充分促进实体经济融资。

　　区域性商业银行在地方国库现金管理业务中的参与程度可以通过其参与规模进行度量。由于难以从地方国库现金管理业务中直接获取每一次操作中各家银行的参与情况，而区域性商业银行几乎都为中小银行，因此本文采用中国人民银行公布的中小银行政府性存款占全部政府性存款的比例作为代理变量，记为中小银行参与度（LocBank_Share）。由表1可见，中小银行在地方国库现金管理业务中的参与度仅为8.15%左右，占比相对较小。

　　对于区域性商业银行的参与程度对地方国库现金管理传导效率的影响，本文使用交叉变量的方式进行检验，即在模型（1）的基础上引入区域性商业银行参与程度指标（LocBank_Share）与地方国库现金管理业务规模指标（TCM）的交叉变量（TCM×LocBank_Share）。模型设计如下：

　　实证结果如表3所示。由表3可见，交叉变量的滞后一阶和滞后二阶系数均为正，且在5%的检验水平上显著。这表明在地方国库现金管理操作中，投放给区域性商业银行的资金越多，在后续1~2个月内，地区信贷规模增长越大；随着滞后阶数的增加，交叉变量系数逐渐增大，表明地方国库现金管理业务对区域信贷的影响逐步扩大。与此同时，地方国库现金管理业务规模（TCM）的系数不显著，表明对全国性商业银行的资金投放对于区域实体经济的影响并不显著。

　　表3的实证结果表明，在地方国库现金管理业务中，区域性商业银行参与程度越高，对地区信贷规模的促进作用越明显，并且这种正向影响会随着时间推移而逐步扩大。从区域性商业银行（城商行、农商行等）参与地方国库现金管理业务的程度展开分析，可以得到以下两点结论：

　　其一，区域性商业银行的参与程度，是地方国库现金管理业务对区域经济融资发挥促进作用的关键影响因素之一。

　　其二，提升区域性商业银行在地方国库现金管理业务中的参与程度，例如增加这类机构的中标数量或中标金额，对充分发挥地方国库现金管理促进实体经济融资功能，具有明显的正向促进作用。

　　总结与政策建议

　　（一）研究结论

　　本文依托货币信贷理论，对地方国库现金管理业务与区域实体经济融资之间的影响渠道展开分析，并依托数据开展实证检验，得到以下两点主要结论：

　　一是地方国库现金管理通过向金融机构定向释放流动性，能够有效将所投放资金传导至区域经济活动中，并且能够显著影响促进地区信贷规模的提升。

　　二是区域性商业银行在地方国库现金管理促进实体经济融资中扮演了重要角色。提升地方国库现金管理业务中区域性商业银行的参与程度，能显著增强地方国库现金管理业务对地区实体经济融资的促进作用。因此，扩大地方国库现金管理业务中区域性商业银行的参与程度，有助于进一步发挥地方国库现金管理对区域经济的调节功能，充分凸显该业务独特的宏观调控优势，同时为优化地方国库现金管理的招投标机制提供了思路。

　　（二）政策建议

　　基于上述研究结论，本文提出以下三点政策建议：

　　一是重视地方国库现金管理业务对区域经济的调节功能，稳妥有序扩大地方国库现金管理业务的开展范围。随着财政收支盈余的增加，市、县一级也存在着调节库款的需求。因此，在总结省级财政开展国库现金管理经验的基础上，可适时推进省级以下地方国库现金管理工作，通过先行先试再逐渐推广的方式，逐步扩大地方国库现金管理的应用范围，进一步发挥地方国库现金管理业务对区域经济的调节功能。

　　二是优化地方国库现金管理招投标机制，提升区域性商业银行的参与程度。考虑到区域性商业银行在发挥地方国库现金管理业务政策调控功能方面的重要性，可以在地方国库现金管理业务招标过程中，按区域性银行和全国性银行进行区分，适当扩大区域性商业银行的参与程度。在评价指标的构建中，可以增加金融机构支持本地经济发展指标，在保证资金安全性的前提下，适当增加政策调节因素的考虑，更充分地挖掘地方国库现金管理业务的潜力。

　　三是强化担保品管理，最大程度地发挥担保品机制的作用。引入更多中小机构参与地方国库现金管理业务，势必对国库资金的安全性带来影响，所以需要充分发挥担保品风险缓释机制作用。具体而言，一是扩大合格担保品范围，推动政策性金融债等优质债券纳入质押券范围，提高风险应对能力；二是引入违约处置机制，突出担保品为中小金融机构兜底的功能，保障国库资金安全；三是丰富担保品期间管理功能，充分运用市值计价、逐日盯市、到期自动置换等担保品期间管理服务，保证国库资金敞口始终处于足额覆盖状态，实现对业务风险全时段可控。

　　注：

　　1．地方国库现金管理业务数据可得性受限，部分地区样本因为缺少观测值而被剔除。本研究最终选用的23个地区为北京、河北、内蒙古、吉林、上海、江苏、安徽、福建、山东、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆，样本涵盖了东部、中部、西部地区，包括经济发达省份和欠发达省份，样本具有代表性。

　　2．本文尝试引入更多期限滞后项，但系数显著性较弱。考虑到篇幅有限，此处不再展示。

　　参考文献

　　［1］陈建奇，张原．国库现金转存商业银行对货币供给政策的影响——基于商业银行资产负债框架的扩展分析[J]．金融研究，2010（7）．

　　［2］傅强．地方国库现金管理的国际经验借鉴[J]．南方金融，2014（11）．

　　［3］付英俊，李丽丽．国库现金管理对货币供给和利率影响的实证检验[J]．统计与决策，2017（6）．

　　［4］侯胜洪，徐刚，马玉珊，康海洁，刘松焘．地方国库现金管理与区域银行流动性管理协调问题研究[J]．华北金融，2018（9）．

　　［5］李俊生，姚东旻，李浩阳．财政的货币效应——新市场财政学框架下的财政—央行“双主体”货币调控机制[J]．管理世界，2020，36（6）．

　　［6］李艳军．国库现金管理：我国当前流动性投放的替代渠道[J]．公共财政研究，2017（3）．

　　［7］王深德．国库资金对区域银行流动性的影响研究[J]．金融理论与实践，2019（8）．

　　［8］张婷，吕尚峰，王鹏，李易达．国库现金管理操作及担保品管理研究[J]．债券，2015（8）．

　　［9］张晓斌．国库库存变动对货币供应量的影响——基于央行资产负债表结构的分析框架[J]．上海金融，2016（6）．

　　◇ 本文原载《债券》2022年5月刊

　　◇ 作者：中央结算公司博士后科研工作站　张梦

　　中央结算公司担保品中心　王昱勋

　　◇ 责任编辑：穆贝雳　印颖　刘颖

　　The Impact of Local Treasury Cash Management on Regional Economy

　　Zhang Meng， Wang Yuxun

　　Abstract

　　Local treasury cash management is an important public finance management activity． Through theoretical analysis and empirical test， this paper discusses the mechanism for transmission from treasury cash management to the real economy， and analyzes the impact of treasury cash management on regional economy． The research concludes that local treasury cash management can effectively regulate the regional economy， promote regional credit supply and boost financing of the real economy． A larger-scale participation of regional commercial banks in local treasury cash management will help further unleash its role in regional economic regulation．

　　Keywords

　　Local treasury cash management， regional economy， credit supply

　　Foreword

　　Treasury cash management refers to a public finance management activity in which the government’s financial department uses financial instruments to effectively operate the treasury funds for the purpose of utilizing public funds more efficiently while meeting the treasury payment needs and safeguarding treasury funds． Treasury cash management， as a crucial policy tool that effectively combines and coordinates a proactive fiscal policy with a prudent monetary policy， plays an important role in improving the utilization efficiency of public funds， broadening the financing channels of financial institutions and reducing the market liquidity fluctuations caused by fluctuations in treasury funds．

　　In 2006， the Ministry of Finance （MOF）， together with the People’s Bank of China （PBOC）， issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Central Treasury Cash （C.K． [2006] No． 37）， formally launching central treasury cash management． In recent years， China’s treasury management has witnessed profound reforms and the efficiency of treasury cash utilization has been increased． At the end of 2014， MOF and PBOC jointly issued the Pilot Measures for Local Treasury Cash Management （C.K． [2014] No． 183） to kick off a pilot program on local treasury cash management． According to the pilot measures， the local treasury cash placed as time deposits with banks must be backed by negotiable China Central Government Bonds as collateral． In July 2015， MOF and PBOC jointly issued the Notice on the Collateral Management for Time Deposits with Commercial Banks for Central and Local Treasury Cash Management （C.K． [2015] No． 129）， allowing local government bonds to serve as eligible collateral for treasury cash management． Collateral management is an important risk control element in treasury cash management， and the key to effectively forestalling and defusing public finance risks （Zhang Ting et al．， 2015）．

　　Since local treasury cash management was launched， it has effectively activated the idle public funds and provided significant support for macroeconomic stability and local industrial development through the bank deposit and money supply mechanism． China’s economy has entered a new normal， which places higher requirements on government funds management． The local treasury operations also show mounting internal demand for optimization．

　　Based on local treasury cash management practices， this paper discusses the relationship between local treasury cash management and regional real-sector financing and clarifies where local treasury cash management should be optimized． On the one hand， this paper provides a basis for the public finance departments to further expand the use of treasury funds． On the other hand， it provides a point of reference for deepening the support for fiscal policy implementation， and helps improve the quality and efficiency of local treasury cash management．

　　Literature Review

　　Treasury cash is part of the liabilities on a central bank’s balance sheet． Its release and withdrawal operations are similar to those for the base money． Therefore， treasury cash management operations have a significant impact on liquidity in the banking system， and their objectives should be fully aligned with the monetary policy． Treasury cash management in China is divided between central and provincial levels． Treasury cash mainly takes the form of 3-month and 6-month time deposits with commercial banks， and has a direct impact on base money supply． On the one hand， the scale of treasury cash management operations can be taken as an important monitoring indicator of monetary policy operations， thus providing a base for coordinating treasury cash management with open market operations． On the other hand， by coordinating local treasury cash management with liquidity management in the banking system， the impact of local treasury cash management operations on liquidity in the banking system can be mitigated． Due to the late introduction of local treasury cash management in China and the limited data that are publicly available， there are limited researches on local treasury cash management． The literatures are mainly divided into the following two categories．

　　The first category focuses on analysis of the aggregate changes in treasury funds． Such researches， based on changes in PBOC’s balance sheet， discuss the impact of changes in treasury funds on money supply． Chen Jianqi and Zhang Yuan （2010） pointed out that the treasury cash placements with commercial banks increase the share of time deposits in balance sheet of commercial banks， thus influencing the commercial banks’ reserve level and credit capacity． In addition， the increase in treasury cash will drive up interest rate and translate into the money supply level fluctuations through the credit transmission mechanism． Based on PBOC’s balance sheet structure， Zhang Xiaobin （2016） created a framework for analyzing the impact of treasury inventory changes on money supply movements at three levels， namely， base money， narrow money and broad money． Li Yanjun （2017） analyzed the differences among RMB counterparts of forex reserves， treasury cash management and the existing monetary policy instruments in the process of money supply， proposing treasury cash management as an effective substitute for liquidity supply． Fu Yingjun and Li Lili （2017） found that the influence of treasury cash management on money supply in China is relatively small at present， but with local treasury cash management launched， treasury cash management will have a more and more significant effect on money supply． Research by Li Junsheng et al．（2020） shows that government revenue and expenditure activities and treasury cash management activities have had a strong and increasing influence on the market currency circulation system．

　　The other category mainly discusses the regional characteristics of local treasury cash management based on practical experience． Hou Shenghong et al．（2018） concluded through theoretical analysis that there are differences in the impact of local treasury cash management on regional corporate banks and unincorporated banking branches， and predicted that the number of corporate banks in a region will affect the impact of local treasury cash management operations on regional macro-liquidity． Wang Shende （2019） studied the data on treasury and financial enterprises in Henan Province． He found that the net outflow of treasury funds has a significant impact on commercial bank deposits， and this process is affected by the credit expansion in the banking system， with a certain lag． In addition， some papers proposed optimizations based on the local treasury cash management practices． Such proposals focused on the allocation of treasury funds． Fu Qiang （2014） stressed that local treasury cash management should take safety and liquidity as the primary objectives and build a scientific evaluation system for investable objects and scope．

　　By summarizing the existing literature， we can find that the researches on local treasury cash management are limited and with some gaps to fill． Firstly， the research from an aggregate point of view can accurately grab the relationship between treasury cash management and monetary policy， but lacks the analysis on the complementary role of treasury cash management in regional economic development． Secondly， the inductive research from a practical point of view can acutely identify the regional characteristics of local treasury cash management， but there is a limited sample size for observation and thus the conclusion shows certain limitations． It is urgent to improve the current bidding evaluation system of local treasury cash management through practice． Therefore， based on the nationwide data on local treasury cash management in recent years， this paper analyzes the impact of local treasury cash management on the regional economy from a micro perspective， emphasizes the complementary role of local treasury cash management business to monetary policy and discusses the efficiency of regulating the regional economy through local treasury cash management． Thus， in response to the urgent needs in practice， this paper provides a reference for improving the bidding evaluation system for treasury funds．

　　Analysis on the Path of Local Treasury Cash Management Influencing the Real Economy

　　The transmission of money supply to the real economy is mainly routed through two channels： inter-bank market and credit channel． The former mainly relies on transactions in the inter-bank market so that money supply is transferred from large banks to small and medium-sized banks， which in turn grant credit to borrowers． The latter mainly relies on asset and liability management of commercial banks， which directly create credit through internal allocation of acquired base money to their credit departments． Taking the Medium-term Lending Facility （MLF） operations as an example， when PBOC releases liquidity to participating banks through the MLF， participating banks can transfer liquidity to other banks through inter-bank market lending and repurchase and purchase of inter-bank liabilities on the one hand， to support credit expansion in the larger banking system． On the other hand， participating banks can use acquired liquidity to replenish their required reserves and directly create credit， thus enabling monetary policy transmission to the real economy．

　　In the practice of local treasury cash management， funds are transferred from the treasury account of the central bank to the reserve accounts of commercial banks， which is equivalent to the central bank’s base money supply． As a result， commercial bank deposits will increase． In essence， the process drives fund flows from the central bank to commercial banks， influencing the real economy in a way similar to monetary policy operations． The participants in local treasury cash management are local branches of national banks， local city commercial banks （“CCBs”）， rural commercial banks （“RCBs”） and rural credit cooperatives． The transmission path is mainly direct credit creation． On the one hand， the branches of national banks cannot directly participate in inter-bank market transactions． On the other hand， regional CCBs and RCBs have limited participation in the inter-bank market． Therefore， the liquidity flowing into participating banks from local treasury cash management has limited capacity of spreading through the inter-bank market； instead， it is mainly used to replenish banks’ required reserves to create credit．

　　Meanwhile， as the participants in local treasury cash management include many regional commercial banks， the credit derived from local treasury cash management funds shows the characteristics of regional concentration． The local treasury cash management releases funds of the same order of magnitude as MLF operations， each amounting to around several hundred billion RMB per month． The counterparties to MLF operations are mainly national commercial banks， so the impact of liquidity supply is nationwide， showing an significant spillover effect． The counterparties to local treasury cash management are mostly regional commercial banks， and credit creation is concentrated in local areas． Therefore， the impact of liquidity released in local treasury cash management is mainly regional． The two have different focal points．

　　Based on the above analysis， the following two assumptions are introduced：

　　Assumption I： The funds released from local treasury cash management， by replenishing commercial bank’s required reserves， help expand commercial banks’ balance sheets and increase credit supply， thus influencing the size of real-sector financing．

　　Assumption II： The participants in local treasury cash management include many regional commercial banks， so its impact on the real economy presents significant region-specific characteristics．

　　An Empirical Test on the Impact of Local Treasury Cash Management on Regional Credit Scale

　　i． Research design and sample selection

　　The above section has theoretically analyzed the transmission mechanism from local treasury cash management to the real economy， but the analysis is still to be supported by data． Therefore， this section relies on publicly available data to empirically test the transmission path of local treasury cash management as mentioned above， and further discusses the impact of local treasury cash management on the regional real economy．

　　Assumption I emphasizes the influence of local treasury cash management on regional credit， so the explained variable of the empirical model is regional credit scale， and the key explanatory variable is the balance of treasury cash management． This research collected and collated the data on balance of local treasury cash management from January 2019 to December 2021 from public sources， covering 23 regional entities1， with a total of 36 periods of samples． The data has a panel structure， so the panel regression model is used． The empirical equation is designed as follows：

　　In the above formula， Credit is the credit scale of the current period in the region， expressed as the RMB loan balance of the current month in the region．

　　TCM， which stands for treasury cash management， represents the current balance of local treasury cash management in the region． As the impact of liquidity released from local treasury cash management on the real economy is a gradual transmission process， the impact of TCM on the credit scale is lagging． Therefore， the lag term of TCM is introduced into the regression model． After comprehensive consideration， two months are selected as the lag period2， i.e． the value of n is 2．

　　MLF represents the balance of medium-term lending facility in the current period and is also analyzed using a two-order lag． On the one hand， it is to control the impact of macro-monetary policy． On the other hand， it is to compare treasury cash management with the impact of monetary policy on regional credit growth．

　　Controls represent control variables． By analyzing and reviewing the relevant literature on factors influencing the size of local credit supply in China， this paper selects the following three factors as control variables： First， the regional GDP in the previous year is selected to control the impact of regional economic differences． Second， the manufacturing PMI for the current period is selected to control the interference of corporate investment activity． Third， the weighted average interest rate of interbank pledged repo market （R001） in the current month is introduced as the control variable for liquidity． In addition， in order to control the impact of macro-cyclical fluctuations and seasonal factors， annual fixed effects and quarterly fixed effects are introduced into the model， and a natural logarithm is calculated for all economic variables．

　　In terms of data sources， the relevant data on local treasury cash management such as TCM are calculated from the governmental deposit data of regional financial institutions published on PBOC’s website． Other economic indicators and financial market indicators such as credit size， GDP， PMI， MLF， R001 are collected from Wind．

　　Descriptive statistics for each variable are shown in Table 1． As shown by Table 1： The overall scale of local treasury cash management is considerable， with an average balance of around RMB150 billion per region． The average and maximum values of local treasury cash management are quite different， with the distribution somewhat skewed． Taking natural logarithm alleviates this problem to a certain extent．

　　ii． Empirical results

　　The empirical results of regression are shown in Table 2． Among them， regression I contains only one explanatory variable， i.e． balance of treasury cash management． In the regression results， the coefficients of all levels of treasury cash management scale are positive， and all are significant at the test level of 1%， indicating that local treasury cash management has a significant positive impact on regional credit investment． The second-order lag coefficient is significantly positive， indicating that the positive effect lasts for more than two months． The coefficients of lag variables for each order are significantly greater than those of the first period， pointing to increasing influence of treasury cash management on regional credit．

　　For comparison， MLF balance is introduced into regression II． From the empirical results of regression II， it can be seen that the impact of local treasury cash management scale on regional credit supply is still significant at the test level of 1% after the MLF balance variable is introduced， which further indicates that treasury cash management has a positive impact on regional credit， and that the MLF has more directly promoted the credit expansion of in the larger banking system． Meanwhile， treasury cash management shows a significant transmission to regional economy， suggesting that local treasury cash management and monetary policy operations are not simplified substitutes for each other； instead， they supplement each other in various dimensions．

　　As a control variable， the regression coefficient of regional GDP scale to regional credit scale is significantly positive， indicating that this variable can effectively identify the regional differences in economic development level． The coefficients of both PMI and R001 are insignificant， showing a relatively weak explanatory power of macroeconomic indicators for regional economic activity． In the above two sets of regression analysis， the adjusted R statistic is above 0.95， suggesting that the model settings are accurate and can effectively capture the changes in regional credit scale．

　　From the above empirical results， it can be found that treasury cash management has a significant positive impact on regional credit regardless of whether the MLF scale variable is added． As the participants in local treasury cash management are mainly regional financial institutions， the released funds can be effectively injected into the regional economic activities， thereby significantly influencing the regional real economy and expanding the regional credit scale．

　　Analysis of the Influence of Regional Commercial Banks’ Participation Level on Local Treasury Cash Management

　　The direct injection of liquidity from treasury cash management into the regional economy， as mentioned above， is enabled by a large number of regional commercial banks （e.g． local CCBs and RCBs） that participate in the business． The participation level of these institutions will inevitably influence the efficiency of transmission from local treasury cash management to regional economy． The following section is an empirical test from this perspective to verify the impact of various participation levels of regional banks on the transmission efficiency of local treasury funds， and explore how to fully promote real economy financing by using the transmission mechanism of local treasury cash management．

　　The participation level of regional commercial banks in the local treasury cash management can be measured by the scale of their participation． As it is difficult to directly acquire information on individual banks’ participation in each local treasury cash management operation， and the regional commercial banks are almost all small and medium-sized banks， this paper uses the share of government deposits with small and medium-sized banks in total government deposits published by PBOC as the proxy variable， and records it as the participation level of small and medium-sized banks （LocBank_Share）． As shown by Table 1， the participation level of small and medium-sized banks in the local treasury cash management is only about 8.15%， representing a relatively small share．

　　For the influence of the participation level of regional commercial banks on the transmission efficiency of local treasury cash management， this paper uses a cross-variable approach to test， that is， on the basis of model （1）， the cross variable （TCM×LocBank_Share） of regional commercial banks’ participation level indicator （LocBank_Share） and local treasury cash management scale indicator （TCM） is introduced． The model design is as follows：

　　The empirical results are shown in Table 3． As can be seen from Table 3， the lag first-order and lag second-order coefficients of cross variable are both positive and significant at the 5% test level． This indicates that in the local treasury cash management operations， the more funds placed with regional commercial banks， the larger the regional credit scale will increase in the next 1 to 2 months． With the order of lag increasing， the cross-variable coefficient gradually increases， pointing to a gradually stronger influence of local treasury cash management on regional credit． At the same time， the coefficient of local treasury cash management scale （TCM） is not significant， indicating that the placements with national commercial banks have an insignificant impact on regional real economy．

　　The empirical results in Table 3 show that in the local treasury cash management， the higher the participation level of regional commercial banks， the stronger boost to the regional credit scale． And such positive impact will gradually increase over time． From the analysis on the participation level of regional commercial banks （CCBs， RCBs， etc．） in local treasury cash management， the following two conclusions can be drawn：

　　First， the participation level of regional commercial banks is one of the key factors that influence the boost from local treasury cash management to the funding of regional economy．

　　Second， enhancing the participation level of regional commercial banks in local treasury cash management， such as increasing the number or value of winning bids from such institutions， plays a significant positive role in boosting local treasury cash management’s ability to fund the real economy．

　　Summary and Policy Recommendations

　　i． Conclusions

　　Based on the theory of money and credit， this paper analyzes the influence channel between local treasury cash management and funding of regional real economy， and draws the following two conclusions through a data-based empirical test：

　　First， local treasury cash management can effectively channel funds into regional economic activities by releasing liquidity to designated financial institutions， and have a significant impact on the boost to regional credit scale．

　　Second， regional commercial banks have played an important role in helping local treasury cash management boost the funding of the real economy． Enhancing the participation level of regional commercial banks in local treasury cash management can significantly boost local treasury cash management’s ability to fund the real economy． Therefore， an increased participation of regional commercial banks in local treasury cash management helps further unleash its role in regional economic regulation， highlights its unique advantage in macro control and provides an approach to optimizing the bidding mechanism for local treasury cash management．

　　ii． Policy recommendations

　　Based on the above conclusions， the following three policy recommendations are given：

　　First， attach importance to the role of local treasury cash management in regulating the regional economy， and expand the scope of local treasury cash management in a steady and orderly manner． With the government surplus on the rise， there is also a need to regulate the treasury funds at the city and county levels． Therefore， based on the experience in provincial-level treasury cash management， the sub-provincial local treasury cash management can be promoted at appropriate time． Through piloting and scale-up， local treasury cash management can be applied more and more broadly to further play its role in regulating the regional economy．

　　Second， optimize the bidding mechanism for local treasury cash management and enhance the participation level of regional commercial banks． Considering the importance of regional commercial banks in unleashing the policy regulation role of local treasury cash management， regional commercial banks can be distinguished from national banks in the bidding process for local treasury cash management to appropriately expand the participation of regional commercial banks． In the construction of evaluation metrics， the indictors of financial institutions supporting local economic development can be added． On the premise of ensuring the safety of funds， policy regulation factors should be added as appropriate to further tap the potential of local treasury cash management．

　　Third， strengthen the collateral management and maximize the role of the collateral mechanism． The involvement of more small and medium-sized institutions in local treasury cash management is bound to have an impact on the safety of treasury funds． Therefore， it is necessary to fully harness the collateral risk mitigation mechanism． Specifically：（1） the scope of qualified collateral should be expanded to include high-quality bonds such as policy financial bonds， so as to improve the ability to tackle risks；（2） a default handling mechanism should be introduced to highlight the role of collateral as a safety net for small and medium-sized financial institutions to safeguard treasury funds； and （3） the ongoing collateral management features should be enriched， so that such services as mark-to-market pricing， day-to-day mark-to-market and automatic replacement at maturity will be used to ensure that the treasury exposure is always covered in full and keep risks under control at all times．

　　Notes：

　　1.Due to limited availability of local treasury cash management business data， some regions lacking observation values were removed from samples． The 23 regions finally selected in this study are Beijing， Hebei， Inner Mongolia， Jilin， Shanghai， Jiangsu， Anhui， Fujian， Shandong， Hubei， Hunan， Guangdong， Guangxi， Chongqing， Sichuan， Guizhou， Yunnan， Tibet， Shaanxi， Gansu， Qinghai， Ningxia and Xinjiang． The samples cover the eastern， central and western parts of China， including economically developed and underdeveloped provinces．

　　2.This paper attempts to introduce more term lag terms， but the coefficient is less significant． Due to space limitations， such attempts are not shown here．

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　　This article was first published on Bond Monthly （May． 2022）． Please indicate the source clearly when citing this article． The English version is for reference only， and the original Chinese version shall prevail in case of any inconsistency．

　　◇ Author from： CCDC Postdoctoral Research Center

　　CCDC Collateral Center

　　◇ Editors in charge： Mu Beili， Yin Ying， Liu Ying