2006年9月15日全球金融市场周报 新兴市场

　　Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

　　Emerging markets had a more difficult week as US interest rate concerns returned to unsettle investors. In Latin America, Mexico's IPC fell 1.9% as inflation rose in August to a seven-month high, dampening hopes for further interest rate cuts from the Mexican central bank. Of more long-term significance was the final decision by Mexico's election court declaring governing party candidate, Felipe Calderon, as the country's next president, thereby ending two months of legal challenges from Calderon's left-wing rival, Manuel Lopez Obrador, who alleged fraud. Investors hope Calderon will continue the economic reform policies begun by outgoing president, Vicente Fox. In Brazil, the BOVESPA was down 2.1% despite encouraging economic news, which included an unexpected slowdown in inflation in August to its slowest pace since June 1999, paving the way for the Brazilian central bank to keep cutting interest rates to boost economic growth.

　　In Emerging Europe, Russia's RTS dropped 1.8% as oil prices fell back sharply. However, Russian investors did receive a boost from Standard & Poor's which raised Russia's foreign and local currency debt rating after the Russian government cleared the USD 23.7 billion in debts that it owed to the Paris club of creditor nations. Other emerging European markets were also down, led by a 1.9% fall for Hungary's BUX and a 1.3% decline for Poland's WIG. However, the Czech PX 50 managed a 1.2% gain, while Turkey's ISE National 100 was just 0.1% lower as data revealed that Turkish inflation had slowed for the first time in 10 months in August, raising hopes that interest rates would now remain on hold following three recent increases. Elsewhere, South Africa's JSE All Share touched a record high early in the week before dropping back to end 2.2% lower.

　　美国息口隐忧再度困扰投资者，上周新兴市场表现失利。拉丁美洲方面，

墨西哥8月份通胀率升上七个月新高，令央行进一步减息期望落空，股市跌1.9%。墨西哥选举法庭作出最终决定，宣布执政党候选人卡德隆为墨国下任总统，结束左派候选人奥布拉多尔长达两个月的法律挑战。投资者期望卡德隆会继续推动卸任总统霍士展开的经济改革政策。巴西经济消息利好，8月份通胀率突然减慢至1999年6月以来最缓慢的步伐，令巴西央行能够继续减息以刺激经济增长，但股市仍跌2.1%。

　　新兴欧洲方面，油价急剧回落，拖累俄罗斯股市跌1.8%。不过，俄罗斯政府清偿欠负“巴黎俱乐部”债权国的237亿美元债务后，获标准普尔调高外币与当地货币债务评级，确实令俄罗斯投资者感到鼓舞。欧洲其它新兴市场亦告下跌，以匈牙利及波兰分别下跌1.9%与1.3%最为严重。虽然如此，捷克股市升1.2%，土耳其股市跌幅亦只有0.1%。土耳其8月份通胀纾缓，是10个月以来的首次，令市场憧憬近期三度加息后的利率可望维持不变。至于其它市场方面，南非股市于上周初段创下新高，收市却跌2.2%。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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