2006年9月15日全球金融市场周报 欧洲

　　Europe 欧洲

　　Despite a strong start, stock markets in Europe fell away from the middle of the week after concerns over rising inflationary pressures in Europe and the US, poor corporate news and hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) spooked investors. The FTSE Eurofirst Index of Europe's 300 leading shares slipped 1.5% over the week, due to a 1.2% loss from the UK's FTSE 100, falls from the French CAC 40 and German DAX indices of 2.1% and 1.4% respectively and a drop of 0.3% by Switzerland's SPI.

　　A rise in euro zone producer prices by 3.4% in July and the release of faster than expected US labour costs growth weighed on sentiment towards the middle of the week amid fears that both the ECB and Fed may have to raise rates again. A drop in the euro zone's purchasing manager's index, hawkish comments from members of the ECB's Governing Council and news that the ECB had raised its forecast for euro zone growth this year from 2.3% to 2.7% also contributed to investor jitters over interest rates. Interest rates were also front-page news in the UK. Despite the Bank of England leaving borrowing costs unchanged at its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, news that house prices had risen 1% in August strengthened expectations that the UK central bank will tighten monetary policy again this year.

　　Corporate news also played its part in dampening sentiment. Among the disappointing announcements, Finland's Nokia and the UK's Tomkins both issued profit warnings, while Anglo Irish Bank, luxury goods retailer LVMH and Italian insurer Alleanza released disappointing earnings figures. Broker downgrades to Vodafone, Barclays and Shire Pharmaceuticals also played their part, while poor sales figures from BMW and the arrest of the CEO of Sportingbet saw investors sell autos and online gaming stocks. Strong results from Credit Agricole, brewer InBev and Dutch retailer Ahold helped equities to claw back some losses, while speculation that Volvo will soon return some cash to shareholders and broker upgrades to Unilever, Scania, MAN and Prudential cheered investors slightly. The merger market remained strong, with bid rumours circling Centrica, Whitbread, Man Group Telecom Italia and BG Group, and speculation that HSBC may bid EUR 70 billion for Spanish bank, BBVA.

　　欧洲股市上周高开，其后欧美通胀压力加剧、企业消息欠佳，欧洲央行又发表强硬言论，都令投资者感到不安，市况遂告回落。周内富时欧洲指数下跌1.5%，当中英国富时100指数跌1.2%，法国CAC 40指数跌2.1%，德国DAX指数跌1.4%，瑞士SPI指数则跌0.3%。

　　欧元区7月份生产

物价上升3.4%，美国劳工成本增长较预期迅速，令市场忧虑欧洲央行及联储局有必要再度加息，以致上周中段市场气氛受压。欧元区采购经理指数下跌、欧洲央行理事会理事发表强硬言论，加上欧洲央行将今年欧元区增长预测由2.3%调高至2.7%，亦令投资者对息口大感关注。息口问题亦左右英国大市去向。英伦银行货币政策委员会于最近一次会议上维持利率不变，但8月份房屋价格上升1%的消息，却令市场预期该行今年会再度加息。

　　企业消息亦拖累市场气氛。利淡消息包括芬兰诺基亚(Nokia)及英国Tomkins发表利润警告，Anglo Irish Bank、

奢侈品零售商LVMH及意大利保险公司Alleanza所发表的业绩都未如理想。Vodafone、Barclays及Shire Pharmaceuticals评级下调亦利淡大市，

宝马汽车(BMW)销售数据欠佳和 Sportingbet总裁被捕，促使投资者抛售汽车及网上赌博股。Credit Agricole、啤酒制造商InBev及荷兰零售商Ahold发表强劲业绩，有助股市收复部分失地。富豪汽车(Volvo)被传快将向股东分派现金，联合利华(Unilever)、Scania、MAN及Prudential获经纪行调高评级，都为投资者带来轻微刺激。合并市场依然活跃，Centrica、Whitbread、Man Group、Telecom Italia及BG Group都涉及收购传闻，汇丰银行(HSBC)可能出价700亿欧元收购西班牙银行BBVA。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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