2006年9月15日全球金融市场周报 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　The TOPIX fell 0.8% as concerns that another rise in US interest rates could trigger a sharper slowdown in the US, one of Japan's largest export markets, saw stocks, particularly exporters, fall from the middle of the week from three-month highs. Reports that capital spending in Japan had risen 16.6% YoY in the 2Q and corporate profits had grown 10% in the same period raised concerns that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again and at a faster pace. News that the BOJ actually left rates on hold at its latest meeting helped stocks rally at the end of the week, but not enough to offset earlier losses. At the stock level, news from Sony that it will have to delay the launch of its PlayStation 3 console, a ratings downgrade for beleaguered internet and telecom group Softbank, and a decline in technology stocks all weighed on the TOPIX.

　　Core machinery orders unexpectedly plunged 16.7% MoM in July, after the surprisingly strong 10.6% increase in June. The core orders figure in July was 12.7% below 2Q average, and 4.9% below 1Q average. The decline in July was broadly-based across industries. Orders from manufacturers fell 18.7% and those from non-manufacturers (ex utilities and ships) also fell 15.8%. However, the weakness was exaggerated by a plunge in communication industry (-26.7% MoM after the June's +5.9%), whose orders are very volatile. Basically, the July's larger-than-expected fall was a payback for the surge in June. Indeed, the June-July average on the core machinery orders rose a substantial 7.0% at an annual rate over the average during January-May this year, or was 7.9% higher than the 2005 average.

　　The BoJ governor Toshihiko Fukui's messages in the press conference last week are that a) the BoJ's policy is not affected by a recent downward revision of CPI, b) the BoJ's assessment of the US economy was modestly revised down, but no change in its assessment of the global economy, which is steadily expanding, and c) the recent bond rally is simply a short-term response of the market, while the BoJ holds a view based on economic fundamentals. Fukui also emphasized that the BoJ has not changed its policy stance, ie. the BoJ will normalize its policy only slowly, watching carefully the economy and prices.

　　东京第一市场指数跌0.8%，市场担心美国再度加息或会导致美国经济急剧放缓，而美国乃日本最大出口市场之一，拖累上周中段日股(特别是出口股)从三个月高位回落。日本第二季资本开支较上季增加16.6%，同期企业溢利增长10%，令市场关注日本央行会再度加息，步伐更会加快。日本央行于最近一次会议上按兵不动，刺激上周尾段股市回升，但不足以抵销之前的跌幅。股份层面上，新力(Sony)宣布押后推出PlayStation 3游戏机、互联网及电讯集团Softbank评级下调，加上科技股下跌，都令东京第一市场指数受压。

　　核心机器订单于6月份大幅上升一成后，至7月份骤降16.7%。7月份核心订单数据比第二季平均水平低12.7%，亦较第一季低4.9%。七月份数据的跌势遍及多个行业。制造商订单下降18.7%，非制造商(不包括公用事业与航运)亦减少15.8%。虽然如此，向来十分波动的通讯业订单锐减，却令整体订单跌势夸大。7月份订单跌幅较预期严重，基本上是6月份急升的结果。事实上，6至7月份核心机器订单的平均水平，按年计比1至5月份大幅增加7.0%，亦较2005年平均水平高出7.9%。

　　日本央行行长福井俊彦在上周新闻发布会上的讯息包括：一、日本央行的政策不受近期消费物价指数下调影响；二、日本央行对美国经济的评估轻微下调，但对环球经济的评估却未有改变，仍是稳步增长；三、近期债市回升不过是市场的短期反应，而日本央行对经济基本因素的看法维持不变。福井俊彦亦强调日本央行并无改变立场，即日本央行只会逐步令利率回复正轨，并会密切留意经济和物价。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)